خلاصة:
مدیریت مخاطرات محیطی ازجمله موضوعات محوری در دانش مخاطرات است و بر اقداماتی نظیر شناسایی، پهنهبندی و تفسیر نواحی مخاطرهآمیز با هدف کاهش مخاطرات مبتنی است. تحقق اهداف و چشماندازهای این دانش، نیازمند مجموعه اقدامات و مطالعات پیوستهای در چهارچوب یک الگوی مدیریتی است که از گامهای متعددی تشکیل شده است. به همین منظور نوشتار حاضر میکوشد با تدوین الگوی مدیریتی، مخاطرات طبیعی مسلط در منطقة رودبار را در هشت گام اصلی بررسی کند. در این زمینه در گامهای نخستین، تعیین مبانی نظری مخاطرات و مخاطرات مسلط در منطقة مدنظر و طبقهبندی مخاطرات طبیعی انجام شد تا شرایط ارزیابی مخاطرات فراهم شود. در این مرحله به کمک روش تحلیل شبکه و تعیین معیارهای پیشنهادی در زمینلغزش، مسیر الگوی مدیریتی مخاطرات ادامه یافت. این معیارها در دو خوشة اصلی مخاطرات طبیعی و زیستمحیطی طبقهبندی شد. در مرحلة بعد با تهیة لایههای اطلاعاتی از عناصر مزبور و ارزشگذاری آنها، این لایهها در محیط ARCGIS تحلیل و نقشة نهایی پهنهبندی زمینلغزش در محدودة شهری و روستایی رودبار با درجات خطر کم (4 درصد)، متوسط (71 درصد) و زیاد (25 درصد) تعیین شد. نتایج بهدستآمده در گام بعدی با وضعیت نواحی شهری و روستایی ارزیابی شد تا زمینههای مؤلفههای ظرفیت جغرافیای طبیعی و انسانی کاهش مخاطرات مشخص شود. در انتها ضمن مطالعة تمهیدات سختافزاری و نرمافزاری مورد نیاز دولت مرکزی، شیوههای بازنگری در خدماترسانی، آستانههای خطر و شیوههای مقاومسازی و آموزش ساکنان مطالعه شد.
Extand AbstractIntroduction One of the main tasks of hazard knowledge is to study the situation and value of the human environment that is vulnerable to all types of natural and human hazards. Hazards in the environment are caused by the instability of the characteristics of natural environment (land surface, biological phenomenon, climate) and human environment (security, technology, etc.), which appear as dangerous events due to human interventions and infrastructures caused by urban-rural developments. In general, it is necessary to take several steps towards designing management models to achieve and formally apply the perspectives of risk knowledge and reduce and manage environmental risks. Establishment of a relationship between the various components of environmental hazards requires the researchers to formulate hazard trends through a model so that this complex and multidimensional process can be easily understood and implemented. This pattern would be a theoretical and simplified representation of the real world. For researchers, who try to understand and apply the principles of risk knowledge in urban and rural settings, this model is a theoretical tool consisting of concepts, hypotheses, and indicators that facilitate selection and collection of the information needed to achieve the basic goals. This research tried to study the risk of landslides in Rudbar in the form of a management model, including risk identification, risk and hazard assessment, zoning, etc., so as to manage and alleviate hazards in the urban and rural areas of Rudbar region. At the same time, the roles of central government and local management in lowering risks were evaluated by reviewing the required measures. The related institutions have a pivotal position in the development and risk management of this area and are capable of taking executive measures to reduce risks and vulnerability within their frameworks, provide sustainability of urban and rural settlements against geomorphological hazards, highlight the challenges ahead, especially from a managerial perspective, and define and present solutions in this regard. Research Methodology In terms of methodology, this paper was based on a quantitative method (assessment and zoning of landslide hazards using a network-derived decision model) and a qualitative method (development of an environmental risk management model with an emphasis on sustainability of urban and rural areas). In the first part, a library method, including a review of theoretical studies of hazard knowledge, landslide analysis, drawing and analysis of related maps, etc., was utilized to develop a management model for environmental hazards. In the second part, by combining the library and field methods, i.e., scientific observation and regional study, several interviews were done with the executive community (governorate officials and district municipality), scientific community (environmental risk experts and urban and rural planners), and local community (natives of Rudbar and adjacent villages) to formulate management components and analyze the current situation for developing a management model of environmental hazards in the study area. The landslide risk zoning process was designed and evaluated within the framework of a network-derived decision model. Assessing and interpreting risk levels via a management model are very important since development of a model highly depends on the evaluation. If the prevailing risk situation in a region is favorable, its management issue may either be eliminated or appear different from the expected disastrous conditions. FindingsIn general, environmental risk management requires interaction of geographical sciences with each other. Therefore, in the formulation and study of environmental risk management models in urban and rural areas, it is necessary to study geographical and other related sciences along with the knowledge of urban-rural planning and applied geomorphology. In this research, the position of each of them in the implementation steps of the environmental risk management modeling of Rudbar region was addressed. For formulating a conceptual model and routing the sustainable management of landslide hazards, various steps must be taken based on the mutual and effective roles of the academic community or researchers, the executive community or decision makers, and the indigenous community or local people with regard to demand resilience. A wide-range geosystem, including coastal and wind geosystems, etc., is associated with different geomorphic actions and reactions and therefore, each management style would be unique in nature. For example, the issues of resilience, prevention, risk preparedness, and special management capacity would generally require special areas. In this regard, the present research as a case study examined the most susceptible management model in the form of risk knowledge in 9 main steps (Fig. 3) through the implementation process. According to this proposed model, the first step began with the definitions, goals, and perspectives of risk and risk knowledge and the final step ended with a review of the measures taken with the objectives in mind. The scientific support of environmental risk management in the forms of a study and implementation requires a combination of theoretical, practical, technical, and executive studies. ConclusionHazard knowledge is a broad and continuous set of theoretical and field studies of risk management and executive measures. The goals and prospects of this knowledge can be achieved to reduce and manage environmental risks by identifying and taking various steps in line with management models. Therefore, in this paper, an attempt was made to develop a natural hazard management model, especially for landslides, that controls urban and rural areas. In this regard, after applying the theoretical foundations of hazardology, the natural hazards were classified by determining the dominant hazards in the study area with the help of theoretical and field studies. These hazards were then analyzed and zoned. At this stage, by determining the effective elements in the occurrence of landslide risks, including slope, slope direction, lithology, land use, average annual rainfall, distance from faults, waterways, and residential centers, and weighting these elements in relation to each other, each element was zoned based on the experts’ opinions, study background, and field visits by using the network analysis method to assess the performance of urban landslide risks. The results showed that among the studied variables, the two factors of slope and lithology had the largest effective coefficients in the occurrence of landslide risk in Rudbar region. Only 22% of the areas with a slope class of less than 20% was within the specified range. This is while the appropriate slope range for urban construction based on sustainable urban planning standards is between 8 and 15 degrees. Among other hazardous elements playing a role in the urban landslide occurrence of Rudbar region, the lithological factor was shown to be vulnerable in terms of mass. In this region, the predominant lithological structure consisted of periodic Eocene volcanic rocks, sandstones alternating between shale layers, and Quaternary alluviums that were sensitive to human activities, such as construction of settlements, intercommunication routes, etc. In the next step, the results were evaluated and interpreted based on the status of urban and rural settlements so as to explore the areas of natural and human geographical capacities and components of risk reduction, while studying the hardware and software measures required by the central government of Gilan Province and Rudbar Municipality and reviewing services before and after the occurrence of danger, risk thresholds and resilience, and the residents’ levels of education. Finally, after achieving the knowledge of risks, the environmental risks were comparatively studied to properly manage them. Keywords: natural hazards, management model, network analysis process, environmental sustainability, Rudbar region References- Ayala, A. (2010). Applications of Geomorphology, Natural Hazards in Vulnerability and Disaster Prevention in Developing Countries. Translated by Reza Khoshraftar, Journal of Development of Geography Education, Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 14-23.- Ayala, I. A. (2002). Geomorphology, Natural Hazards, Vulnerability, and Prevention of Natural Disasters in Developing Countries. Geomorphology, No. 47, pp. 107-124.- Dari, B. and Hamzeh, E. (2010). Determining the Risk Response Strategy in Risk Management by ANP Technique (Case Study: North Azadegan Oil Field Development Project). 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ملخص الجهاز:
بـراي پژوهشگراني که در تلاش براي ادراک و اجراي اصول دانش مخاطرات در محيط هاي شهري و روستايياند، الگو يـک دستگاه نظري متشکل از مفاهيم ، فرضيه ها و شاخص هايي است که کار انتخاب و جمـع آوري اطلاعـات مـورد نيـاز را براي تحقق اهداف اساسي آسان ميکند (رحيمي هرآبادي، ١٣٩٨: ١١٢)؛ به همين دليل گيروشه ١ معتقد اسـت توسـل به الگو در همۀ علوم يک ضرورت اجتناب ناپذير است ؛ زيرا بيشـتر انديشـمندان و پژوهشـگراني کـه دربـارة زنـدگي اجتماعي انسان بحث کرده اند، همواره به مشابهت ها يا بعضي تصاوير توسل جسته اند تـا بتواننـد جامعـه را نـزد خـود معرفي کنند؛ به اين دليل که واقعيت اجتماعي چندگانه است ، به حدي که ذهن انسان توانايي درک کامل ايـن واقعيـت را در کليت و پويايي آن ندارد؛ بنابراين براي اينکه بتوان از يک واقعيت چندگانه و پيچيـده ماننـد مخـاطرات محيطـي به ويژه نحوة مديريت آن سخن گفت ، بايد اجزا و عناصر تشکيل دهندة آن را با ملاحظات مختلف و به ويژه بـا اسـتفاده از مطالعات ميان رشته اي تشريح و تجزيه و تحليل کرد (سجاسي قيداري و همکاران ، ١٣٩٥: ٩٦).
مخاطره شناسي با رويکرد برنامه ريزي و مديريت مخاطرات (منبع : نگارنده ، ١٣٩٩) گام چهارم : پهنه بندي مخاطرات طبيعي در منطقه به کمک روش فرايند تحليل شبکه به منظور پياده سـازي ارکـان مديريت محيط در اين گام فرايند پهنه بندي مخاطرات زمين لغزش در محدودة رودبار با استفاده از مدل فرايند شبکه به شـرح زيـر انجام شد: پس از تعيين روابط بين معيارهاي مؤثر بر خطر زمين لغزش شهري با استفاده از پرسش نامه و تعيين ضـرايب اوليـۀ هر عنصر با مقايسه هاي زوجي برپايۀ پرسش نامه ، ضرايب به دست آمده از مجموعۀ عناصر در يک ابرماتريس گردآوري و با استفاده از عمليات رياضي در نرم افزار مربوطه ، ابتدا ابرماتريس غيروزني و سپس ابرمـاتريس وزنـي تشـکيل شـد.