چکیده:
تغییرات کاربری اراضی و پوشش زمین[1]، یکی از موضوعات اصلی توسعة پایدار است. بهمنظور ارائة علمی منطقی برای تصمیمات برنامهریزی منطقهای و توسعة پایدار میتوان از مدلهای پیشبینی الگوهای کاربری اراضی استفاده کرد. بر این اساس هدف پژوهش حاضر، مدلسازی و پیشبینی الگوهای زمانی و مکانی تغییر کاربری اراضی حوضة زایندهرود است. در این پژوهش از مدل اتوماتای سلولی و زنجیرة مارکوف[2] برای شبیهسازی و پیشبینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی استفاده شد. تغییرات کاربری اراضی از سال 1996 تا 2018 بررسی و تغییرات آینده برای سال 2030 و 2050 شبیهسازی و سناریوهای آیندة کاربری اراضی طراحی شد. اعتبارسنجی مدل با مقایسة نقشة شبیهسازیشدة سال 2018 با نقشة واقعی آن انجام و از ضریب کاپا برای ارزیابی مدل استفاده و ضریب کاپای 94% حاصل شد. براساس نتایج، کاربری انسانساخت از 13016 هکتار در سال 1996 به 154194 هکتار در سال 2050 تغییر مییابد و مدیریت توسعة آتی شهر را میطلبد. میزان اراضی کشاورزی از 177067 هکتار در سال 1996 به 40000 هکتار در سال 2050 تغییر مییابد. در میان تمام تغییرات، نگرانکنندهترین وضعیت برای اراضی کشاورزی است. نتایج نشان میدهد تغییرات کاربری اراضی بهصورت گسترش مناطق شهری و کاهش مساحت کاربری کشاورزی است. چنین تغییراتی در دو مرحلة مشخص رخ داده است. اراضی شهری از سال 2013 با تاثیر مستقیم در کاهش پوشش گیاهی بهمثابة یک نتیجه از تبدیل اراضی کشاورزی به سایر کاربریها توسعه مییابد. همچنین تایید شده است که روند تغییرات پس از سال 1996 پویا بوده و شدت یافته است؛ زیرا در سال 2018 منطقة وسیعی از اراضی کشاورزی به مناطق شهری و صنعتی تبدیل شده است. اراضی کشاورزی و باغها در سال 2018 شامل 74057 هکتار است و تا سال 2050 میتواند به 40000 هکتار کاهش یابد که به معنی از دست دادن 34057 هکتار نسبت به پوشش اراضی کشاورزی و باغها در سال 2018 است. نتایج پژوهش حاضر مبنی بر گسترش فعالیتهای شهری و صنعتی و کاهش سطح اراضی کشاورزی در منطقه، توجه بیشتر برنامهریزان محیطزیست را برای تصمیمگیری و مدیریت بهتر میطلبد.
AbstractThe purpose of this study was to model and predict temporal and spatial patterns of land-use change in the Zayandehrud basin. In this research, the CA-Markov prediction model was used to simulate and predict land-use change. First, the land-use changes from 1996 to 2018 were studied and then the future changes for 2030 and 2050 were simulated. Afterward, the future land-use scenarios were designed. The model was validated by comparing the simulated map of 2018 with the real map, and the kappa coefficient of 94 % was utilized to evaluate the model. Based on the results, the Built-up land-use was altered from 13016 hectares in 1996 to 154194 hectares in 2050. This outcome necessitates the management of the future development of the city. Furthermore, the amount of agricultural land was varied from 177067 hectares in 1996 to 40,000 hectares in 2050. Among all the changes, agricultural lands attracted the most attention and concerns. The results indicated the land-use changes in the form of urban areas and reducing area of agricultural lands. Such alterations were taken place in two distinct stages: urban lands have been developing since 2013, with a direct impact on the reduction of vegetation due to the conversion of agricultural lands into other land-uses. The dynamic trend of changes has also been confirmed and intensified since 1996. In 2018, a significant area of agricultural lands was converted into urban and industrial areas. In addition, the agricultural and orchard lands were 74057 hectares in 2018 and can be reduced to 40,000 hectares by 2050. It revealed 34057 hectares lost as compared to the agricultural and orchard lands in 2018. The present study depicts that the expansion of urban and industrial activities and reducing the level of agricultural land in the region requires more attention and care in land management. Extended Abstract:Introduction: Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is one of the main issues of sustainable development. To provide a rational science for regional planning decisions and sustainable development, land use pattern prediction models based on past preliminary information can be used to construct future scenarios of land-use changes. Modeling and predicting land use changes provide an interesting perspective for applications in planning units such as river basins and make it an effective tool for analyzing the causal dynamics of the future landscape under different scenarios. Land-use models are considered a powerful tool for understanding the spatio-temporal pattern of land-use changes, such as the Markov chain, cellular automation, and hybrid models based on these methods, which are widely used to simulate the spatial and temporal dimensions of land use. In the present study, land use changes prediction was performed using a combined model of cellular automation and the Markov chain (CA-Markov) to simulate temporal and spatial land-use patterns. The present study tries to predict land-use changes in the Zayandehrood river basin. The Zayandehrud basin is currently facing major environmental problems (such as water resources scarcity, population growth, urban development, and agricultural land degradation). Therefore, it is essential to evaluate land-use changes for this sensitive basin. In particular, the objectives of the research include two stages: 1) patial modeling of land-use change, and 2) predicting spatio-temporal patterns of land-use changes in the Zayandehrud river basin.Therefore, in the present research, land-use changes from 1996 to 2018 were investigated and future changes for 2030 and 2050 were simulated. Methodology: In this research, land-use changes modeling was performed in three time periods 1996 to 2013 (17-year period), 2013 to 2018 (5-year period), and 2018 to 2030 and 2050. The purpose of modeling is to determine the capabilities of the Markov chain model and integrate it with cellular automation to detect land-use changes. The images were classified into 4 classes: agriculture and gardens, built-up (urban areas, airport, and road), industrial towns, and other land uses (abandoned lands and fallow, rangeland, water areas). Finally, land-use changes modeling was performed in the period 1996 to 2050 (54-year period). The steps of the research method are as follows:Step 1: Pre-processing of satellite images: Radiometric correction was applied to the images. Next, the images were processed using the FLAASH module in ENVI5.3 software to reduce atmospheric interference. Then, by synthesizing the name and wavelength of the bands, image storage, mosaic, and mask clipping, a preprocessed remote sensing image was generated. Finally, the preprocessed remote sensing image was obtained.Step 2: Processing satellite images: Types of land use images in the area in ENVI 5.3 were extracted using visual interpretation and supervised classification methods. Land use classification algorithms were used to estimate the three main land-use classes (agriculture, urban, and industrial development). The principal component analysis method was performed on the images and was identified agricultural by high resolution. Land use classification for 1996, 2013, and 2018 was done with a classification approach based on the decision tree. To classify the images, maximum likelihood methods, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines were used. The final classification was performed using decision tree analysis. Finally, prediction of land-use changes was performed on images by performing the CA_Markov analysis in TerrSet software.Step 3: Post-processing of satellite images: Using Google Earth and cross-tab analysis, TerrSet software evaluated the accuracy of classifying land-use thematic maps. Using the existing database, a validation process was performed to ensure the accuracy of the model in predicting land-use changes for the forecasted 2018 map. The accuracy of the simulated model of land-use change in 2018 was validated and then compared with the actual map of the same year. The validation process was performed by generating the kappa coefficient. Discussion: In this study, land-use changes in the Zayandehrood basin were identified and investigated. The results showed that land-use changes are in the form of urban development and reduction of agricultural land use. Such changes have occurred in two distinct stages. First, urban land expansion has prevailed since 2013, with a direct impact on declining vegetation as a result of the conversion of agricultural land to other land uses. The dynamic trend of changes has also been confirmed and intensified since 1996. Because in 2018, a significant area of agricultural lands was converted into urban and industrial areas. Future scenarios based on the CA-Markov model provide valuable information about future land use and land cover changes in the study area. This study can identify land-use changes in different periods and depict the increase or decrease of important land uses in the region. According to the study of Motlagh et al. (2020), land-use changes were studied based on three possible scenarios (i.e. the current trend of land use growth, conservation of agricultural lands, and urban development forecast). Future scenarios for 2030 and 2050 estimate that there will be a significant reduction in vegetation and agricultural lands and orchards and continued urban and industrial development in areas along the Zayandehrood basin. Expansion of the agricultural sector along with the conservation of natural resources is not only one of the most important challenges of sustainable development in the Zayandehrud basin but is also essential for future strategic land use plans. Compilation of instructions for sustainable agricultural development can be a way to strike a balance between nature conservation and economic development in the region. Conclusion: In summary, this study demonstrates how the proposed CA-Markov model is used to better simulate land use complex and dynamic changes over time. Of all the land-use changes, the most worrying is the situation in the region for agricultural lands. If the current trend of land use continues, we estimate that by 2050, its area will be halved, and such changes in the landscape will undoubtedly change the entire ecosystem of the basin, emphasizing that the negative effects on the vegetation of the basin have a direct impact on the economic sector of the region because maintaining the quality of the environment of the Zayandehrood river basin is essential for ecotourism. Therefore, the management and planning of the basin are highly recommended to preserve its unique ecosystem, as well as to protect the vegetation in the area. The methods and results of this study will be useful for policymakers and urban planners for precise planning of the region to be able to manage the city using farms and conserving water resources and urban infrastructure development planning for environmentally sustainable development. Keywords: Land-Use Changes, Cellular Automation, the Markov Chain, Zayandehrud River Basin. 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خلاصه ماشینی:
Dey et al)؛ بنابراين به منظور ارائۀ علمي منطقي براي تصميمات برنامه ريزي منطقه اي و توسعۀ پايدار مي تـوان از مدل هاي پيش بيني الگوهاي کاربري اراضي براساس اطلاعـات مقـدماتي گذشـته بـراي سـاخت سـناريوهاي آينـدة تغييرات کاربري و پوشش زمين استفاده کرد.
مدل سازي پيش بيني تغييرات کاربري و پوشش زمين چشم انداز جـالبي بـراي برنامـه هـاي کـاربردي در واحـدهاي برنامه ريزي مانند حوضه هاي رودخانه ايجاد و آن را به ابزاري مؤثر براي تجزيه و تحليـل عليـت پويـايي چشـم انـداز آينده تحت سناريوهاي مختلف تبديل ميکند (٢٠٢١ ,.
بعضي از مدل هاي پيش بيني براي شبيه سازي پويايي تغييرات کاربري اراضي اسـتفاده مي شود (صالحي و همکاران ، ١٣٩٨؛ شفيعي ثابت و همکـاران ، ١٣٩٨؛ سـعادت نـوين و همکـاران ، ١٣٩٨)؛ همچنـين ميتوان به پژوهش هاي زير اشاره کرد: علي محمدي سراب و همکاران (١٣٨٩) در پژوهشي توسعۀ مناطق مسکوني در حومۀ جنـوب غـرب تهـران را بـا استفاده از مدل اتوماتاي سلولي شبيه سازي کردند.
در مطالعۀ حاضر مدل سازي پيش بيني تغييرات کاربري و پوشش زمين با استفاده از مدل ترکيبي اتوماتاي سـلولي و زنجيرة مارکوف ٣ (CA-Markov) و با توجه به مزاياي مدل براي شبيه سـازي و پـيش بينـي الگوهـاي زمـاني و مکـاني کاربري اراضي انجام شده است (٢٠٢١ ,.
به طور خاص اهداف پژوهش ، مدل سازي فضايي تغيير کاربري اراضي و پـيش بينـي الگوهـاي زمـاني و مکـاني تغييـر کاربري اراضي در منطقۀ مطالعه شده است ؛ بنابراين در پژوهش حاضر، تغييرات کاربري و پوشش زمين از سـال ١٩٩٦ تا ٢٠١٨ بررسي و تغييرات آينده براي سال ٢٠٣٠ و ٢٠٥٠ شبيه سازي شد.