چکیده:
زمینه و هدف: گردشگری سیاه، گردشگری تلخ و یا گردشگری جنگ، موضوع محوری موردتوجه پس از پایان دومین جنگ جهانی بود که در ابعاد فرهنگی و صنعت توریسم توسط کشورها طرح و زیرساختهایش پایهگذاری شد. هدف این پژوهش تحلیل پیشرانهای کلیدی موثر بر توسعه گردشگری جنگ در شهرستانهای آبادان و خرمشهر است.روش: پژوهش حاضر مبتنی بر روشهای تحلیلی و اکتشافی است. در این راستا پس از برگزاری جلسات بحث با 35 نفر از نخبگان و متخصصان گردشگری جنگ در این دو شهر در دو مرحله، بهعنوان جامعه آماری تحقیق، 30 متغیر اولیه در قالب چهار بعد کلی شناسایی شد. در ادامه، متغیرهای اولیه در چارچوب ماتریس اثرات متقاطع در نرمافزار آینده نگار میک مک تعریف شد.یافتهها: بر اساس نتایج روش میک مک پیشرانهای کلیدی در چهار دسته راهبردی، اثرگذار، وابسته و مستقل دستهبندیشدهاند.. درنهایت، با توجه به امتیاز بالای اثرگذاری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، 15 عامل اصلی کلیدی و تأثیرگذار در آینده توسعه گردشگری جنگ دو شهر آبادان و خوزستان شناسایی شدند. بر همین اساس متغیرهای کاهش مهاجرت، توسعه و گسترش وسایل حملونقل، افزایش آلودگیهای محیطی، افزایش صنایع و فعالیتهای صنعتی، افزایش فرصت و بازار برای فروش محصولات کشاورزی، بهبود کیفیت راهها و جادهها، افزایش میزان سرمایههای مردم را میتوان مهمترین پارامترهای تأثیرگذار در محیط گردشگری جنگ در منطقه آبادان و خرمشهر قلمداد نمود.نتایج: نتایج پژوهش حاکی از ناپایداری سیستم گردشگری جنگ بوده و همچنین پیشرانهای اقتصادی بیشترین تأثیرگذاری و کمترین تأثیرپذیری را داشته است.
A B S T R A C TBackground and Aim: Black tourism, bitter tourism or war tourism, was a central topic of attention after the end of the Second World War, which was established by the countries in terms of culture and tourism industry and its infrastructure. The purpose of this research is to analyze the key drivers affecting the development of war tourism in Abadan and Khorramshahr cities.Methodology: The current research is based on analytical and exploratory methods. In this regard, after holding discussions with 35 elites and war tourism experts in these two cities in two stages, 30 primary variables were identified as the statistical population of the research in the form of four general dimensions. In the following, the primary variables were defined in the framework of the matrix of cross-effects in the Mic Mac futurist software.Results: ased on the results of the Mic Mac method, the key drivers are classified into four categories: strategic, influential, dependent and independent. Finally, according to the high score of direct and indirect influence, 15 main key and influential factors in the future development of tourism in the two cities of Abadan and Khuzestan were identified. Based on this, the variables of reducing migration, developing and expanding means of transportation, increasing environmental pollution, increasing industries and industrial activities, increasing opportunities and markets for selling agricultural products, improving the quality of roads and roads, increasing the amount of people's capital can be the most important influencing parameters in the tourism environment. He considered the war in Abadan and Khorramshahr region.Conclusion: The results of the research indicated the instability of the war tourism system, and economic drivers had the most influence and the least influence. Extended AbstractIntroductionToday, due to its various effects, tourism has become one of the largest industries in human societies, so some have gone beyond this and consider it the largest economic activity in the world. Tourism in the field of war and its monuments has many fans as one of the most attractive branches in the tourism industry and every year millions of people visit war tourism attractions in the form of tours of war zones and war museums or independently. War tourism and the monuments built about it, such as museums, by shaping the set of economic activities related to it, can have a significant effect on strengthening the economic foundations of the country and a new source for creating employment, earning income, more tax revenues, and attracting foreign exchange. And the strengthening of various infrastructures caused all-round growth and development. War tourism is a new approach to the functioning of the tourism sector, which aims at sustainable development, improving the image and attractiveness of a destination. Since this approach is still in its infancy in developing countries, it is necessary to identify implementation obstacles for its successful implementation. The importance of the tourism industry in economic prosperity is clear, because less developed countries when faced with a drop in the value of their national currency, turn to the tourism industry for more and more sustainable development. Since this industry brings income generation and employment, the full participation of stakeholders must improve the quality of tourism services with the aim of resource sustainability.One of the types of trips that take place in Iran is the trip to the operational areas of Khuzestan province, especially the two cities of Abadan and Khorramshahr. A huge part of the identity of these two cities is somehow tied to the war and its effects. Therefore, the development of war tourism in these areas can play a major role in identifying and highlighting the values and concepts of war for today's and future generations by providing authentic places to create experiences and understand related concepts and values. In this regard, the aim of this research includes the following:-Identifying, explaining and describing the driving factors affecting the development of war tourism in the two cities of Abadan and Khorramshahr. MethodologyIn terms of the type of research, the present research is a combination of documentary and survey methods, and in terms of its nature, it is based on analytical and exploratory methods, and it was carried out with a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. First, by using the library method and interviewing the experts and experts of the bodies and organizations related to tourism affairs in the form of a Delphi group, the necessary information was collected and the components affecting war tourism were identified, and then to determine the key factors among the components, a questionnaire of mutual effects was designed. In other words, the questionnaires were completed in two stages, and based on the stages of research, the sample of this research is divided into two parts. In the step of identifying the drivers, 25 people and 10 people in the mutual effects section have been selected purposefully from among those who have had research or executive experience related to war tourism. In fact, in this research, the purposeful sampling method was used to select the participants. Results and discussionBased on the findings of the research, the drivers of the increase in reverse migration, the increase in people's participation in economic activities, the increase in transportation activities and the movement of passengers, the increase in the amount of production and agricultural products, the increase in travellers' visits to historical and cultural monuments, the increase in industrial and service units, and the increase in employment for women The increase in the price of land, the increase in the use of communication devices, and the prosperity of crafts have been among the independent drivers. In other words, these drivers do not have a role in stopping or changing the direction of other drivers. The reason for this issue is that these drivers are weak by themselves, but according to the actions and reactions of the drivers identified in this study, they act independently and do not play a large role in terms of influencing and being influenced by other drivers. The position of these drives is in the southwest region coordinate system. The variables of this part can be classified into three types: discrete, secondary and regulatory. Accordingly, the component of increasing the amount of people's participation in economic activities as a secondary lever variable, and the components of increasing travellers' visits to historical and cultural monuments, increasing the use of communication tools, and the prosperity of handicrafts are discrete variables. Also, the components of increasing reverse migration, increasing the amount of production and agricultural products, increasing industrial and service units, increasing employment for women, and increasing land prices can be classified as regulatory variables.. ConclusionIn general, the following variables can be observed in unstable systems: 1. influencing variables; 2. Bimodal variables (including risk variables and goal variables); 3. regulatory variables; 4. Influential variables; 5. Independent variables. What can be understood from the scatter plot of variables affecting the future of war tourism development in Abadan and Khorramshahr is the unstable state of the system, which was explained to Tafazil.In the end, what is important is that the realization of the sustainable development of war tourism not only in the two cities of Abadan and Khorramshahr but also in all the cities that have been involved in the war in some way, requires assistance and coordination of all relevant executive bodies, so that through this way, it can be compiled, implemented and evaluated. Solutions are suitable for existing payment conditions. Undoubtedly, exploiting the existing capacities, improving the social dignity and the place of war zones in the national economy, and finally, creating the necessary platform for the prosperity and progress of justice centred on them are among the goals of sustainable development, in this direction, identifying key issues and examining their power and capacity is mandatory. FundingThere is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. AcknowledgmentsWe are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.