خلاصة:
In the beginning of 2011, Islamic Republic of Iran underwent a Scheme called "Subsidies TargetingThis scheme meant to replace subsidies on goods and services especially energy, which had kept prices low for decades, with a monthly refund to every resident as compensation plan. Considering the magnitude of price change up to ten times and the importance role of Energy carriers in production and households’ consumption, it would be necessary to analyze the inflationary effect of that Scheme. Therefore we developed a RMSM-X model including six sectors and added some behavioral links among economic variables to forecast Inflation and Growth rates for a four-year period. Unlike other studies done about this subject in Iran, RMSM-X ensures economic consistency among all sectors of an economy. The RMSM-X projection results suggest that the Scheme increases inflation rate by 24% and reduces the growth rate by 5%. Even though inflation rate levels of the year after running the Scheme but it will not fall back to base scenario by 2015.
ملخص الجهاز:
"The budgetary identities of those six sectors are as follows: Households Sector Current account: Capital account: Central Government Sector Current account: Capital account: Oil Sector Current account: Capital account: Non-financial Enterprises Sector Current account: Capital account: Financial Enterprises Sector Current account: Capital account: Foreign Sector Current account: Capital account: Term Description Term Description B Government Bonds iSD Interest Rate Saving Deposits BC Debt to Financial Sector IM Imports C Consume KT Capital transfers CT Current Transfers PL Profit and Loss CU M2 S Saving E Non-official exchange rate SD Saving Deposits EX Export TD Direct Tax FD Foreign Debt TI Indirect Tax GDP Gross Domestic Product VA Value Added iB Bonds Interest Rate WR Work Remittance iBC Interest Rate on Domestic debt STR Subsidies Targeting Income iFD Interest Rate on Foreign debt SR Subsidies Refund Subscript Description P Households G Central Government O Oil E Non-financial enterprises M Financial enterprises F Foreign sector Like the works of Luis Serven [1990] for Chile and Luc Everaert [1992] for Turkey, there are two general approaches to solve a typical RMSM-X model, the positive and normative.
The Iran’s political situation at that time in addition to sharp increase of exchange rate and the effect of running subsidies targeting scheme, which caused fuel careers prices to rise on average about 10 times, all together made the government to avoid central bank declaring the annual data of GDP growth."