خلاصة:
Shanghai cooperation organization, is a regional multilateral cooperation organization thepermanent and observer members of which account for about 44% of world population,20% of oil reservations and about 40% of world gas reservations. Also, permanent andobserver countries of this organization have a significant share in oil and gas production.24% world oil production as well as over 30% of world gas production is done in Shanghairegion. Therefore, given the aggregation of the largest energy producers (Iran and Russia)alongside the largest energy consumers (China and India) in this organization and its hugeenergy potential, one of the cooperation fields is energy. As such, in order to provide somerecommendations for Iran about the manner of membership in the organization usingscenario planning method, this research investigates the impact of scenarios facing Iran andShanghai organization on energy geopolitics and concludes that if Iran become a fullmember of Shanghai organization, it can take advantages from its positive consequences onenergy security (acquisition of demand security, eliminate the threat of sanctions, foreigninvestment and access to technology)
ملخص الجهاز:
In this research 4 Indicators affecting the geopolitics of energy- security of demand, sanctions, investment and technology- are considered that scenarios facing the SCO as well as Iran's membership in the organization can have different effects on the Iranian energy geopolitics through these channels.
2. In situation where the USA hegemony and unilateralism increases, discrepancy of interests of members increase and interactions of members with large powers (European Union and the USA) are fixed, we would possibly see the scenario of keeping the current situation which requires a limit level of economic and security cooperation with more focus on central Asian issues and some simulative posturing at international level.
When the USA hegemony and unilateralism increases, discrepancy of interests of members decrease and interactions of members with large powers (European Union and the USA) decrease, we would likely to see strengthening economic, political and security convergence of the organization.
when the USA hegemony and unilateralism increases, discrepancy of interests of members decrease and interactions of members with the large powers (European Union and the USA) increase, we would likely to see the scenarios of strengthening political and security convergence of the organization and weakening the economic convergence.
2. In the condition where the USA hegemony and unilateralism increases, discrepancy of interests of members increase and interactions of members with large powers (European Union and the USA) increase as well, we would likely to see the scenarios of strengthening political and security cooperation of the organization.