خلاصة:
Oil sector is the most effective sector in these countries. Oil is the most important product that world industries use as the cheapest energy. The price of oil depends on the world’s supply and demand and many economic, political and geographical variables. This is the reason why the price of oil has fluctuations. The fluctuations in oil price lead to fluctuate in the oil revenues of the member countries of OPEC. Because the economic system of these countries directly depends on oil sector, economic growth affected by the oil sector. The research made to explain the effect of export instability on economy, by using economic growth modeling and panel data analysis with time series data from 1981 to 2006 with seven member countries of OPEC. The results show that there is a strong negative relationship between export instability and economic growth. In other words, export instability either positive or negative create many problems for these kind of countries. This means that if the revenue of oil exports in these countries increases, they fall in trouble. We can also clearly see this problem in economic growth rate. Therefore, export instability is not beneficial in OPEC countries and they should try to stabilize and manage their revenues their revenue usage properly.
ملخص الجهاز:
The research made to explain the effect of export instability on economy, by using economic growth modeling and panel data analysis with time series data from 1981 to 2006 with seven member countries of OPEC.
In fact, income uncertainty is Vol. 1 / No. 2 / Spring 2011 Finding Method applied Time period Title of the work Author SeNrioal Negative ETicomneomereiterisc’ 1950 -1966 IDnostmabeisltiitcy Consequences of Export Reynolds (1963) 1 Negative Cross-section 1955-1966 SEtxrpuoctrture Instability and Economic Massell (1970) 2 Negative Panel Data 1850-1899 PEexrpsopretctivIenstability in Historical Hanson(1980) 3 Negative Autoregressive 1963-1982 Export Instability and Growth HarOrizglearna1n9d88) 4 Some period is positive Some period is negative Panel Data 1966-1980 Export Instability and PolicyImplications for Developing Countriesas Residual Suppliers Mullor--Sebastian(1990) 5 Negative Panel Data 1979-1986 EGxropowrtth inInSsutabb-ilSiatyharaannAfricEaconomic Gyima(h1-9B9r1e):mpong 6 Negative General Equilibrium model 1970-1990 FTirnaadneceShocks and Economics and Kose a(n19d9R9i)ezman 7 Some countries are positive Some countries are negative Panel Data 1948-1997 EcxopnorotmiIcnGtarboiwlitthy in, AIsnivaensCmoeunnttriaesnd Sinha (1999) 8 In the long-run is positive In the short-run is negative Time series’ Econometric 1973-1995 The Effect of Export EarningsFluctuations on Capital Formation inNigeria Akpokodje (2000) 9 In the long-run is positive In the short-run is negative A Survey and review of literature f1958-1999 The Economic Consequences oExport Instability DevelopingCountries Bonjean at al (2001) 10 Negative but weak Panel Data 1968–1986 SEucbo-nSoamhiacraFnluAcftruiactaions and Growth in Kwasi Fosu (2001) 11 Negative ETicomneomereiterisc’ 1966-2002 EGxropowrtth inInEstthaiboilpiitay and Economic Abraha (2004) 12 Negative ETicomneomereiterisc’ 1960-2005 PEhffileicptpsinoefsVaonldaTilhitayilaonfdExports in the Sinha (2007) 13 Positive Panel Data 1961-2000 EGxropowrtth Diversification and Economic Hesse (2008) 14 3-3- Fixed Effects Model Fixed effects models are not without their drawbacks.