خلاصة:
The purpose of this study is presenting a model forecasting financial crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange listed companies. To do this, productive firms that had been accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange between 2002 and 2009, were selected as the study sample.
First the independent variables were obtained based on financial ratios and then based on Article 141 of the Law of Commerce, the insolvent and solvent firms were separated. Next, based on these two groups of firms, the presence or absence of meaningful difference between independent variables (financial ratios) of this two group samples were tested. The results obtained from this test contributed to the extraction of a proper model of forecast using logistic regression. The results indicated that the variables of debt to the equity ratio, net inome to net sales ratio & working capital to assets ratio were identified as independent variables in the final model.
In addition, the results indicated that using the test data, the forecast strength of the model is 81.49%, its degree of sensitivity is 96.12% and its degree of identification is 67.48%.
ملخص الجهاز:
"Omitting sampling method was used in this research according to the following criteria: 1) Being productive 2) Being listed before the research time period 3) Fiscal years ending on 20th of March (Iranian fiscal year) and lack of modification of fiscal year during the term of the research 4) Lack of transactional break during the research period 5- Data analysis 5-1- Calculation of financial ratios and/or parameters needed as independent variables of the tested model and discrimination of solvent and insolvent companies At first, variables like cash, accounts receivable, current assets, total assets, current debts, total debt, working capital, profit and loss, equities, sale, gross profit, net profit and financial expenses were extracted and then leverage ratios, profitability ratios, activity ratios and liquidity ratios were calculated as follow: Leverage ratios: • X1: Debt to Asset Ratio • X2: Debt to Equity Ratio • X3: Financial Expenses Coverage Ratio Profitability ratios: • X4: Net Profit to Asset (ROA) • X5: Net Profit to Net Sale(ROS) • X6: Gross Profit to Net Sale • X7: Net Profit to Equity (ROE) Activity ratios: • X8: Accounts Receivable to Net Sale • X9: Sale to Asset Liquidity ratios: • X10: Current Ratio (Current Asset to Current Debt) • X11: Quick Ratio (Quick Asset to Current Debt) • X12: Working Capital to Asset • X13: Cash to Asset • X14: Cash to Current Debt The companies under study were categorized into solvent and insolvent companies by virtue of article 141 of Commercial Code and simple Tobin’s q, say, if a company was subject to article 141 of Commercial Code for three consecutive years it was held to be insolvent, otherwise, it was solvent."