خلاصة:
The aim of this paper is to develop a prediction model of energy demand of
Iran’s industrial sector. For that matter a Markov Chain Grey Model
(MCGM) has been proposed to forecast such energy demand. To find the
effectiveness of the proposed model, it is then compared with Grey Model
(GM) and regression model. The comparison reveals that the MCGM model
has higher precision than those of the GM and the regression. The MCGM is
then used to forecast the annual energy demand of industrial sector in Iran up
to the year 2020. The results provide scientific basis for the planned
development of the energy supply of industrial sector in Iran.
ملخص الجهاز:
Energy Demand Forecast of Iran’s Industrial Sector Using Markov Chain Grey Model Aliyeh Kazemi1, Mohammad Modarres2, M.
Thus, according to the data of the total energy consumption of the sector, this paper presents a MCGM forecasting model to forecast and analyze the energy demand of industrial sector in Iran.
The original data are first modelled by the GM, and then the residual errors between the predicted values and the actual values for all previous time steps are obtained.
Then, the transition probability matrix of state can be Energy Demand Forecast of Iran’s Industrial … (View the image of this page)regression model.
{مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} Year Fig 1 Fitted and predicted Values by GM for the Increase in Energy Demand of Industrial Sector Intl.
J. Humanities (2013) Vol. 20 (1) {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} Year Fig. 3: The fitted and predicted values by MCGM for the increase in energy demand of industrial sector.
Based on the historical data of the energy consumption in industrial sector of Iran from 1990 to 2008, a trend curve equation is built by regression forecasting model.
As the results, the model fitted and predicted values by 9 Energy Demand Forecast of Iran’s Industrial … Intl.
{مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} Year Fig. 4: The fitted and predicted values by regression model for the increase in energy demand of industrial sector 5.
The results showed that the accuracy of MCGM in forecast energy demand of industrial sector is higher than those of GM and regression model.