خلاصة:
in recent years, the so-called Rebound effects that stem from energy efficiency gains have been of increasing interest in the economic literature. This effect happens when improvements in energy efficiency stimulate energy demand rather than decrease it. In the recent paper using Social Accounting Matrix data on the economy of Iran, the previous research has been extended on this field by evaluating the rebound effects on urban and rural household’s sectors. In order to measure the degree of the rebound effect, the CGE model of Iran with household sectors was used and the simulation study, assuming an exogenous energy improvement was conducted. Based on the results of the empirical analysis in this work, the highest size of the rebound effect corresponding to the urban household’s sector was found to be approximately 6/2 when oil and natural gas energy efficiency improves by 5%. Of course, except for electricity, in the rest of the cases there is a back fire. Moreover, in the rural households, the highest size of the return effect is 2/06 and belongs to the distributed gas energy. Therefore, the energy conservation policy promoted by the Iranian government may be unable to attain the desired goal.
ملخص الجهاز:
In order to measure the degree of the rebound effect, the CGE model of Iran with household sectors was used and the simulation study, assuming an exogenous energy improvement was conducted.
Based on the results of the empirical analysis in this work, the highest size of the rebound effect corresponding to the urban household’s sector was found to be approximately 6/2 when oil and natural gas energy efficiency improves by 5%.
The main objective of this paper is to calculate the rebound effects of improving the efficiency of oil and natural gas, petroleum products, distributed gas and electricity used by rural and urban households in Iran.
2. The Rebound Effect: Literature Review The view that economically improving energy efficiency increases the energy consumption rather than a reduction in energy use originally proposed by the British economist William Stanley Jones in 1865, which is known as the Jones paradox.
Conclusions In urban households, according to the results of the tables presented in the last section, by improving the efficiency of crude oil and natural gas, the consumption of crude oil and gas in both scenarios has raised, which increased the efficiency up to 20 percent, moreover the rebound effects reduced accordingly.
According to the results of the last section tables, with the improvement in the efficiency of distributed natural gas, generally energy consumption was increased, and because the return rate is greater than one, the back fire was created.