تحلیل و سنجش تاب آوری محیطی روستاهای حوضه آبخیز گرگانرود در مواجهه با سیل مقالة

مخاطرات محیطی به‌عنوان پدیده‌های اجتناب‌ناپذیر، همواره با خطرات جدّی و بحران همراه بوده و بدینسان یکی از چالش‌های اساسی بر سر راه توسعه پایدار روستایی است. طی سال‌های اخیر تغییرات محسوسی در رویکردهای مدیریت بحران به‌وجود آمده و نگاه غالب به‌سمت «تاب‌آوری» تغییر کرده است. مطابق آمارهای جهانی، سیل بیشترین خسارات و تلفات را به سکونتگاه‌های انسانی وارد نموده که این مسئله در ایران و استان گلستان نیز صادق است. طی دوره آماری 93-1370 تعداد 106 مورد سیل در این استان ثبت شده که باعث تخریب منابع‌طبیعی و محیط‌زیست گردیده است. امّا چنانچه در خصوص تاب‌آوری روستاها برنامه‌ریزی شده بود، شاید میزان خسارات کاهش می‌یافت. اگرچه مقوله تاب‌آوری ابعاد متنوع و مختلفی دارد امّا این پژوهش صرفا با تاکید بر ابعاد محیطی مساله، به‌دنبال تحلیل و سنجش رابطه بین مولفه‌های محیطی و میزان تاب‌آوری روستائیان حوضه آبخیز گرگانرود در مواجهه با سیل می‌باشد. پژوهش از نوع کاربردی با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری شامل 106 روستا با تعداد 22942 خانوار می‌باشد که تعداد 31 روستا به روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌ای تعیین و با فرمول کوکران، 318 خانوار بعنوان حجم نمونه برآورد و به‌روش تصادفی ساده انتخاب گردید. نتایج کلی تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که بین مولفه‌های محیطی روستاهای منتخب و میزان تاب‌آوری خانوارهای آنها رابطه معناداری وجود دارد. به‌گونه‌ای که میانگین تاب‌آوری محیطی کل منطقه (2/67) پایین‌تر از حد متوسط بوده‌اند. همچنین نتایج تحلیل فضایی تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی نیز نشان داد که 71 درصد روستاهای نمونه در پهنه‌هایی با درجه آسیب‌پذیری نسبتا بالایی قرار داشته و تنها 29 درصد روستاها دارای تاب‌آوری نسبتا مناسبی می‌باشند.

Environmental hazards are inevitable phenomena that always place serious risks on the development of human societies, especially rural development. In the recent years, however, significant changes have been made in crisis management approaches, and the prevailing view has shifted from the "reduction of vulnerability" approach to "resilience improvement". Resilience is a new concept often used in the face of unknowns and uncertainties. Therefore, along with this change of attitude, it is important to examine and analyze natural hazards in terms of resilience. According to global statistics, floods, as one of the most devastating natural disasters, have caused the greatest losses and casualties to human settlements, which is true both in our country and in Golestan province. Investigations show that only in the statistical period of 1991-2014, 106 rainfall cases have led to the occurrence of floods in this province. These floods have damaged natural resources, the environment and the prevalence of environmental pollution; In addition, other natural and human factors have contributed to the heightened risk of flood damage. But if it was planned for the restoration of villages, then the damage could be reduced. Therefore, this research was conducted with the general purpose of determining the relationships between environmental factors and factors of rural communities of Gorganrud watershed on their resilience and numerical values. Finally, the residual spatial analysis of rural limited settlements was studied. Accordingly, the research questions are as follows: a) What is the relationship between environmental factors and factors in the villages of Gorganrud watershed in Golestan province with the resilience of the communities living in them in the face of flood? b) What are the resiliency values ​​of these communities in the environmental dimension and which zones? This is an applied research with descriptive-analytical method. A library of researcher-made questionnaires was used for collecting data using library resources. The statistical population consisted of 106 villages with 22,942 households. First, 31 villages were selected by cluster sampling. Then, using Cochran formula, 318 families were selected as sample size and selected by simple random sampling method. Also, for assessing the validity of the questionnaire, using Delphi collective wisdom methods, it was determined by using historical studies and opinions of experts in rural areas. The reliability of the questionnaires was also determined by using the Cronbach's alpha coefficient in the pre-test method. The value for the household questionnaire was ra1=0.841 and ra2=0.862, respectively. All steps for statistical analyzes have been performed by Excel and SPSS software. Additionally, the development of mapping, risk-taking, risk and resilience was also done with the help of ArcGIS software and the weight of each criterion was determined by the Super Decision tool; Then, using the weighted and linear overlapping methods, each of the sub-criteria of the main indexes was multiplied in its weights. The study area is divided into two distinct sections in terms of geological and geomorphological structure. The southern and eastern parts of it are the ripples of the eastern Alborz mountains, which are taller in the southern part and extend along the east-west direction. Also, the northern part of the studied basin is the Gorgan plain, in which the main branch of Gorganrud flows from east to west and all branches of the south and east are drained. Following the general slope of the main branch and its long-standing walls in the mid-east, it is usually not flooded; but as far as the west is concerned, its slope is very low and one of the flood plains is considered as the basin. The results of the research show that there is a significant relationship between the environmental factors of the studied basin villages and the resilience of the communities inhabited by them in the face of floods. Also, the average environmental resilience of the whole region was lower than the average (2.76 average), rural households in the sub-basins of TilAbad and ChehelChai with an average of 3.24 and 3 had relatively good environmental resilience, But most of the rural households in the sub-basins of Ghurechai and Lower of Gorganrud, Mohammad Abad-Zaringol, Madarsoo and Sarisoo, with an average of 2.89 to 1.85, had a poor environmental resilience. In addition, According to the flood risk resilience map, it can be said that of the total 31 sample villages studied, about 29 percent of sample villages have "medium upward" resilience in facing flood risks; conversely, most of these villages (71%) also have relatively low degree of resilience. Also, comparing the findings of this study with the results of most other researches, such as the studies of Olshansky and Kartes (1998) regarding the necessity of considering the environmental factors of settlements, observing the necessary environmental standards and the necessity of using proper land use management tools to reduce risk hazards and improve resilience, Center of Emergency Management Australia (2001) on the need to consider the state of the infrastructure, including the level of communications and accesses, biological conditions, including the status of pollution, as well as geographical characteristics, such as distances and proximity, climate, topography, as well as the general results of studies by Rafiean et al. (2012) in special selection of the most suitable model of resilience based on the combination of carter and socioeconomic model due to the simultaneous attention of this model to its geographical features and its comprehensiveness, as well as attention to the local communities' participation, Rezaei (2010), Shokri Firoozjah (2017) and Anabestani et al. (2017) Regarding the low value of the calculated population, the resiliency number of the society is consistent and consistent with the lack of attention to infrastructure issues, locations, etc., which is below the baseline (3). As a result, all of the aforementioned components of the resilience of inhabitants of sample societies have been affected by its environmental dimension, which is often due to insufficient attention and insufficient handling of them, which reduces resilience of rural residents to flood risks.

تـاب آوری بعنوان رویکرد بازیابی، معیاری است که بعنوان زمان سپریشـده یـک جامعـه جهـت بازیـابی از تغییـرات انـدازه گیری میشود (٢٠١٤,McEntire)؛ به طوریکه جوامع تاب آور قادر به بازگشت نسبتا سریع به وضعیت قبلی هستند (Madhuri 1Vulnerability 2Resilience 3bouncing back 4to jump back ٢٠١٤,. از طرفـی، بررسـی پیشینه موضوعی تحقیق حاکی از آن است که مطالعات مربوطه در جهان در سطح عمومی و غالبا در خصوص شناسایی و سنجش شاخص ها و متغیرهای تاب آوری است و در داخل کشورمان نیز اغلب معطوف بـه حوزه هـای شـهری بـوده و حوزه های روستایی مغفول مانده است که ذیلا به برخی از این آثار اشاره شده است ؛ 1Disaster Resilience of Place-Based (DROP) 2Community Based Disaster Resilience Model اولشانسکی و کارتز، در کتاب خود با تأکید بر ابعاد نهادی موضـوع تـاب آوری، مؤلفـه های نظیـر آیین نامـه های توسـعه ، سیاست های مربوط به محیط ها و فضاهای عمومی و غیره ، را مورد بررسی قرار داده و معتقدند که برای انجام برنامه های جامع ، دولت های محلی باید ابزارهای مدیریت استفاده از زمین را بکار گیرند تا با پیش بینی و رسـیدگی بـه برنامـه های کاهش خطر بتوانند زمینه ای برای رسیدن به اهداف کاهش خطرات در کنار افزایش تاب آوری جوامع خود در مواجهه با مخاطرات محیطی دست یابند (١٩٩٨,Kartez &Olshansky ). بر این اساس ، سوالات تحقیق عبارت است از: الف ) بین عوامـل و مؤلفه های محیطی روستاهای حوضه آبخیز گرگانرود استان گلستان با میزان تاب آوری جوامع ساکن در آنها در مواجهه با سیل چه رابطه ای وجود دارد؟.