خلاصة:
In this paper, the evaluation of the real exchange rate transfer and the asymmetric transmission of real exchange rate fluctuations to the export prices of food products for the country during the period (2001-2015) was studied using two approaches of PMG and GMM systems. The TGARCH method was used to calculate the real exchange rate fluctuation index and the Markov Switching method was used to calculate the positive and negative shocks of the real exchange rate fluctuation. The results of the study showed that the real exchange rate transfer was full on the export price of food products in the period under review. The real exchange rate fluctuation has increased production costs, thus increasing the export prices of food products. Export prices also react to positive, negative shocks are not the same exchange rate fluctuations, and the effect of negative shocks, exchange rate volatility has been more than positive shocks.
ملخص الجهاز:
Based on the results of the estimation of PMG and GMM models, the producer price index, which is actually an indicator for the cost of producing export goods and which according to the theory should be a positive sign, has a positive and significant effect on the export price in the long run.
Based on the results of the volatility index, the real exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the export price in the short run.
According to the results, in the long run, the real exchange rate fluctuation has increased production costs, thus increasing the export price of selected products.
According to the results obtained from the PMG and GMM method, negative and positive shocks of real exchange rate fluctuations in the long run have had a significant negative and positive effect on export prices, respectively.
In other words, the two variables introduced into the model for considering the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate fluctuations, taking into account the stability of other conditions in the PMG method, with a one percent increase in the negative shocks of export prices, dropped by 8.
In this regard, the real exchange rate fluctuation index of the GARCH method and the positive and negative shocks of real exchange rate fluctuations from the Markov-Switching method and their effect along with other variables in the form of the research model, and using the two methods of PMG and GMM The export prices of Iranian food industry were examined.