خلاصة:
The aim of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of parametric reforms. An adjusted Auerbach-Kotlikoff model is used to study the effects of decreasing replacement and contribution rates of the pension system. The first part concentrates on the macroeconomic effect of reforms. Our results indicate that reducing the replacement and contribution rates increase the capital stock and decrease the interest rates so the economy moves closer towards the golden rule. Under these parametric reforms, there is a long-run increase in capital stock, wages, labor supply, consumption and income of the future generations. We then measure the welfare effects of different generations and finally show how to use a Lump-Sum Redistribution Authority to calculate an aggregate efficiency measure of policy reforms. Our findings suggest an aggregate efficiency gain of 32.14 % (for replacement rate) and 4.04 % (for contribution rate) compared to the initial equilibrium.
ملخص الجهاز:
We then measure the welfare effects of different generations and finally show how to use a Lump-Sum Redistribution Authority to calculate an aggregate efficiency measure of policy reforms.
Keywords: Stochastic OLG Model, Pension Reforms, Welfare JEL Classification: H55, H75, I38, J26 1 Introduction Population aging is one of the major economic challenges for today’s societies.
Moreover, to measure the impacts of a demographic transition on the behavior and welfare of different generations, it is necessary for a dynamic model to be disaggregated (by age cohorts), describing the experience of each age cohort over time as economic conditions change.
We employ a stochastic general equilibrium model to study the effects of both parametric and systemic reforms on the macroeconomic variables and the intergenerational welfare of the current and future generations over a life cycle.
Note that the household has to pay income taxes ,t and pension contributions ,t from her labor earnings, so the net wage rate equals , .
We first make one reform and study its effects on the macroeconomic, household behavior, the decision of individual consumption and leisure as well as on the welfare of different generations and aggregate efficiency.
5 Conclusion The purpose of the present paper is to quantify the macroeconomic and welfare effects of the various pension reform policies such as decreasing the replacement and contribution rates of the pension system utilizing a dynamic general equilibrium model.
In this setup, we solve stochastic OLG models, calibrate it, compute transition paths and measure welfare effects of reforms and calculate the efficiency effect by using a Lump-Sum Redistribution Authority.