خلاصة:
یکی از مسائل و چالش‌های اساسی جهان به‌خصوص در منطقه غرب آسیا موضوع اسرائیل و آینده رژیم صهیونیستی است. به نظر می‌رسد که این مسئله را باید فراتر از یک مناقشه عادی بین اعراب و رژیم اشغالگر قدس دانست؛ چراکه کل مسائل جهان اسلام را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. درواقع، برای بسیاری از مسلمانان، نابودی رژیم صهیونیستی به‌صورت یک آرمان درآمده است. قضاوت درباره اینکه آیا این آرمان محقق می‌شود یا خیر امر ساده‌ای نیست که بتوان بدون تکیه‌بر پژوهش‌های دانشگاهی بدان پرداخت. بنابراین لازم است تا جوانب مسئله موردبررسی‌های بیشتری قرار گیرد. در این راستا این مقاله درصدد است تا مهم‌ترین تنگناها و چالش‌های راهبردی و ژئوپلیتیکی رژیم صهیونیستی را مورد ارزیابی قرار دهد. داده‌های موردنیاز این پژوهش به روش کتابخانه‌ای و اسنادی گردآوری‌شده است و روش‌شناسی حاکم بر تحقیق نیز ماهیت توصیفی- تحلیلی دارد. نتیجه پژوهش نشان می‌دهد بااینکه رژیم صهیونیستی برخی فرصت‌ها را در اختیار دارد که از نقاط قوت آن به شمار می‌رود، درعین‌حال، با تنگناها و چالش‌های بزرگی نیز روبرو است. ازجمله مهم‌ترین این چالش‌ها می‌توان به شکاف و دودستگی‌های سیاسی، اجتماعی و قومی، وابستگی جدی به مهاجرت و پدیده مهاجرت معکوس، بحران هیدروپلیتیک و انرژی، وضعیت دشوار جغرافیایی و نداشتن عمق استراتژیک و نقش‌آفرینی محور مقاومت اشاره کرد.
Extended AbstractIntroductionIn the field of politics and global relations, all countries, in addition to enjoying their strengths, always face many challenges and threats in order to survive and continue their political existence. Israel, that formed as a Jewish state by the conspiracy of the great powers in the twentieth century and in the heart of one of the Muslim countries of the West Asian region (Palestine), posed significant geopolitical challenges for both the Muslim countries of the region and itself. Affected by these challenges, it is concerned about his future and the continuation of his political life. Hence, some experts believe that this regime will not be able to overcome the massive volume of its internal and international problems in the coming decades, and as a result, a vague and dark future awaits it. Among these experts is Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, stated: "After the end of these nuclear talks, I heard the Zionists in occupied Palestine say that at the moment, with these talks, we are relieved of Iran's concerns for 25 years; I answer that you will not see the next 25 years. (Khamenei, 2015)». Therefore, the present article seeks to answer the fundamental question of what are the most important weaknesses and geopolitical challenges of Israel that may threaten the future of this state?MethodologyThis research has been done in a descriptive-analytical method and has used a qualitative method of logical reasoning to analyze the required data and information obtained through libraries and documents and the opinions of experts on the strategic and geopolitical challenges of the Zionist regime. Results and discussionBased on the studies, the most important studies related to the opportunities and challenges facing the Zionist regime have been obtained and summarized as follows:-Opportunities and strengths of the Zionist regimeIt seems that at present Israel has good relations with some of its neighbors such as Egypt and Jordan (Ghasemi, 2004: 53). Israel has good economic capabilities such as benefiting from modern technology, increasing connection with the capitalist world, benefiting of free aid from the United States and Germany, and finally economic growth (Derakhsheh and Sadeghizadeh, 2015: 105).- The internal challenges of the Zionist regimeIncluding the existence of Palestinian militants (Ghasemi, 2004: 71) The issue of Palestinian refugees, political, social and ethnic divisions such as: differences over the type of treatment of Palestinians, demographic composition in favor of Muslims; (Derakhsheh and Sadeghizadeh, 2015: 228), Popular encounters with different cultures, with each other, ideological differences and the challenge of legitimacy (Mohammadi, 2015: 7), Serious dependence on migration and the phenomenon of reverse migration, security of socio-political space.- External or compound challenges of the Zionist regimeSuch as: hydropolitical crisis and energy and relative weakness of the population (Eftekhari, 2001: 175), Difficult geographical situation and lack of strategic depth and feeling of threat from classic and guerrilla attacks (Dehghani, 2014), Regional and global isolation (Chupani and Myar Abbasi, 2011: 62), the Islamic Revolution of Iran and the process of Islamic awakening and the axis of resistance (Ghasemi, 2004: 54), Confirmation of the unreality of the Holocaust In some scientific researches (Dost Mohammadi, 2012: 183 and Weber, 2009: 64), increasing differences with the European Union (Faizi, 2015) are the most important external challenges of this regime.- Predictions made about the vague future of the Zionist regimeKing Abdullah II of Jordan warned that if the process of reconciliation in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine is not achieved, Israel's long-term future will be in danger (King Abdullah, 2010). The CIA, which had previously predicted the collapse of the South African regime as well as the collapse of the Soviet Union, has expressed doubts about the survival of the Zionist regime after the next 20 years (CIA, 2015). Sixteen US intelligence agencies and institutions have also studied the reverse migration of Jews from Palestine to their original countries and concluded that Israel will collapse by 2025 (Mohammadi, 2015: 9). A narration in Baharalanvar states: The Jews will come from the West [to the Arab region of the Middle East] to form their state in Palestine. The Arabs fought the Jews three times, and in the fourth stage, victory overshadowed them (Majlisi, 1070: 59). In the book The Fall of Israel, three things are stated as the political preconditions for the fall of Israel: 1- Replacing the compromising Arabs with Israel, with the Persians fighting against Israel 2- The emergence of a new leadership and alternative current during two historical movements 3- The emergence of anti-Zionist resistance in the Sham. (Al-Fatlawi and Zolghadr, 2006: 130-184). The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution also stated in 2015: Insha'Allah, for another 25 years, by God's help and by God's grace, there will be no such thing as the Zionist regime in the region. ConclusionIn the international political climate and global relations, all countries have been affected by some internal and external challenges, worried about the future and the continuation of their political life. Meanwhile, some experts believe that Israel will not be able to overcome its internal and international problems in the future decades, and as a result, the issue of the destruction of this state is regularly raised in some political forums. This claim was examined with a list of internal challenges as well as external threats to Israel, in the form of theories such as the difficulty of adapting to the region's geopolitical environment and various narratives such as the CIA forecast and the leadership of the Islamic Revolution mentioned above. All this evidence, in general and based on the current situation, indicates the destruction of the political life of the Israeli, which should be cunsidered constantly of the Muslim countries in the region, especially the Palestinians.
ملخص الجهاز:
سير تکويني مطالعات و پژوهش هاي آکادميک انجام گرفته در ارتبـاط بـا توسـعه طلبي و سـطح نفـوذ اسرائيل به خصوص در منطقه غرب آسيا، همواره يکي از بحث برانگيزترين مسائل ديپلماتيـک در بـين راهبـرد نويسـان و انديشه ورزان ژئوپليتيک و روابط بين الملل از آغاز طرح شدن ژئوپليتيک مقاومت در جهان است .
محمودي (١٣٩٧) در پـژوهش خود معتقد است که حيات اسرائيل در محيط پرآشوب و ملتهب منطقه خاورميانه ، در کنار ضعف هاي ژئوپليتيکي اين رژيم همچون عدم داشتن عمق استراتژيک ، سـرزمين محـدود و نامتناسـب و جمعيـت کـم و همچنـين اهـداف جاه طلبانـه و توسعه طلبانه اين رژيم ، موجب شده تا امنيت و مسائل امنيتي به عنوان کانون تمام سياسـت هاي ايـن دولـت قـرار گيـرد.
طيراني شعرباف و درخشه (١٣٩٩) در پـژوهش خـود بـا عنـوان «فراينـد دولت - ملت سازي در اسرائيل ؛ چالشي در مسير ماندگاري و بقاء» که با روش توصيفي تحليلي انجام شده اسـت ، معتقدنـد اين رژيم مبناي وجودي خود را بر هويتي خاص و پيچيده بنياد کرده است کـه هرچنـد در نگـاه اول ايـن هويـت خـاص مي تواند نقطه قوتي براي بقا و تشکيل يک جامعه محسوب شود، اما ويژگيهاي خاص اين هويت بر مبناي نـژاد و عـدم کثرت جمعيتي آن ، براي اين رژيم چالش هايي را به وجـود آورده اسـت .
همچنـين ، نفوذ نظاميان در سياست و ميليتاريستي و امنيتي بودن فضاي سياسي اجتماعي رژيم صهيونيستي (که لازمه حکومت داري اين رژيم است و سايه بحران امنيت را همواره بر سر مـردم خـود گسـترانده اسـت )، يکـي از چالش هـاي سياسـي رژيـم صهيونيستي است (درخشه و صادقي زاده ، ١٣٩٤: ٧١-٢٢٨).
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