خلاصة:
یکی از معضلات بزرگ شهرهای معاصر، رشد ناموزون وگسترش افقی آنهاست که حاصل عدم توجه به توسعة فضاهای درونی شهر میباشد. به همین دلیل، رویکردهایی چون توسعة میان‌افزا با هدف توسعة مجدد بافت‌های ناکارآمد مرکزی شهر بیش از پیش اهمیت یافته است. از طرفی، گذر زمان ناکارآمدی شیوه‌های برنامه‌ریزی سنتی در تحقق این توسعه را به ما نشان می‌دهد. از این رو، هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر شناسایی متغیرهای کلیدی مؤثر بر تحقق توسعة میان‌افزا در بافت‌های ناکارآمد مرکزشهر و با تأکید برمحله شهشهان شهر اصفهان با بهرهگیری از رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی به عنوان یکی از رویکردهای نوین برنامه‌ریزی در حل مسائل غیرقابل پیش‌بینی و عدم قطعیت‌ها میباشد. نوع تحقیق بر اساس هدف کاربردی و بر اساس ماهیت و روش برپایة روش‌های نوین علم آینده‌پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است که در دو مرحلة شناسایی متغیرهای اولیه از روش دلفی و تعیین متغیرهای کلیدی از روش تحلیل ساختاری به کمک نرم افزار MIC MAC بهره گرفته شده است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان داد که از مجموع 40متغیر بررسی شده، پنج متغیر بیشترین تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری را برکل سیستم دارند و به عنوان متغیرهای کلیدی مؤثر بر وضعیت آیندة توسعة میان‌افزا و کاهش فرسودگی در محله شهشهان قابل معرفی هستند که عبارتند از: تعدیل نقش و عملکرد فرامحلی محله شهشهان، تناسب مشوق‌های نوسازی-بهسازی با توان بهرهگیری ساکنین از آن، افزایش مشارکت ساکنین، رفع مشکلات مالکیت زمین و مسکن و بهبود نظام ارتباطات و دسترسی‌ها در سطح محله. این متغیرها بیشترین نقش را در وضعیت آیندة تحقق توسعة میان‌افزا در محله شهشهان ایفا می‌کنند و زمینه‌ساز تدوین سناریوهای توسعة آتی این محله محسوب می‌شوند.
One of the major problems in cities is urban sprawl that is result of inattention to development of inner city’s spaces. For this reason, approaches such as infill development with the aim of redeveloping the inefficient city central texture have become increasingly crucial. On the other hand, the passing of time shows us the inefficiency of traditional planning methods in achieving this kind of development. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is identifying the key variables affecting on infill development in inefficient areas with emphasis on Shahshahan neighborhood of Isfahan by using futures study approach as one of the new planning approaches in solving unpredictable problems and uncertainties. The type of research based on purpose is practical and based on the nature and method is according to futures study’s methods, is analytical and exploratory which in two stages of identifying the primary variables and determining the key variables used Delphi and Structural Analysis method by MIC MAC software respectively. The research findings showed that out of 40 variables studied, five have the most impact on the system and can be introduced as key variables affecting the future status of infill development in Shahshahan neighborhood including: Adjusting the trans locality of function of Shahshahan neighborhood, Coordinating the renovation-rehabilitation incentives with resident’s financial abilities, Increasing resident’s participation, Resolving the problems with land and housing ownership, and Improving the communication and access systems. These variables play the most important role in the future status of infill development and considered as a basis for scenarios in in Shahshahan neighborhood future development.Extended Abstract IntroductionInefficient fabrics are being formed in city centers while the horizontal expansion of cities, which is considered as one of the most important problems of current urbanization, have been continuing. Meanwhile, infill development is a new approach that can both be a logical response to the growth and development of the city in the future and reduce the current problems of inefficient areas, including city centers. On the other hand, the passage of time and the complexity of the problems of inefficient fabrics show us that the use of traditional planning methods cannot lead to the realization of this type of development in order to solve the problems of these areas and achieve sustainable regeneration. Therefore, urban planning in order to face and solve the inefficient fabrics issues, should replace a new and innovative method. so, the aim of the present research is using futures study approach as one of the new and efficient approach in urban planning and” structural analysis" method in order to identifying the key variables affecting on the future status of infill development in Shahshahan neighborhood of Isfahan. The reason of choosing shahshahan neighborhood is that it’s one of the Historical neighborhood in central center of Isfahan, which has the highest infill capacity among the central neighborhoods of the city, so that 16.3% of its area is formed by infill capacities (barren, ruined and abandoned lands) and despite several projects Including aggregation plans, its residential quality reduced considerably.MethodologyThe research method in terms of purpose is applied and based on the nature and method is based on new methods of futures study science is research, analytical and exploratory. In this regard, at first 46 primary indicators affecting the realization of infill development based on documentary-field studies in six dimension including physical-spatial, infrastructure-servicing, socio-demographic, environmental and legal-managerial identified and by Delphi method the importance of each factor Determined and 6 less important factors were eliminated based on the experts' point of view. Then, in order to determine the key and strategic variables of the system, the structural analysis method was used in MIC MAC software environment and the key variables according to their position in the plan of direct and indirect plan were selected.Results and DiscussionAfter determining the final variables by using Delphi method, to determine the key and strategic variables affecting on the future status of infill development in shahshahan neighborhood of Isfahan, structural analysis method was used in MicMac software environment. The general analysis of the system environment due to the status of the variables in scattering page indicated the instability of the system environment, which according to that, five categories of variables, including effective, two-dimensional, regulatory, dependent and independent, could be identified. Finally, after analyzing the intensity of influence and dependence of variables in the cross impact matrix in Mic Mac software, 11 main variables with a slight change in Rankings repeating both in the direct and indirect analysis were identified as a most influential variable in the future status of shahshahn neighborhood. These variables including “management approach”, “trans locality of function and role of shahshahan neighborhood”, “renovation- incentives”, “proximity to Isfahan Bazar and its penetration in the neighborhood”, “communication and access system”, “resident’s participation”, “the status of land and housing ownership”, “low density and uneconomical construction”, “rules and regulations in the field of inefficient fabrics”,”facilitation”and”borucratic process”, which among them, just five variables which were in second area of direct and indirect influence-dependence plan in matrix could be recognized as a key variables , because the second area of the plan is the position of variables that have great importance and uncertainty at the same time and have a high capacity to become a key actors in the system and affect the dynamics of the system. These five variables including adjusting the trans locality of function of Shahshahan neighborhood, Coordinating the renovation-rehabilitation incentives with resident’s financial abilities, increasing resident’s participation, Resolving the problems with land and housing ownership, and Improving the communication and access systems.ConclusionThe aim of this study was identifying the key variables affecting on the future status of infill development in Shahshahan neighborhood of Isfahan, which is conducted by futures study approach and "structural analysis" method. The research findings of present research showed that 11 main variables affect the future status of infill development in this neighborhood, which among them "management approach" with a relatively large distance from other variables, affects the whole system and inattention to its correction, especially in the field of decline areas, will have irreparable consequences. Also, five variables including “Adjusting the trans locality of function and role of Shahshahan neighborhood”, “Coordinating the renovation-rehabilitation incentives with resident’s financial abilities”, “increasing resident’s participation”, “Resolving the problems with land and housing ownership”, and “Improving the communication and access systems in the neighborhood level” with the highest impact were identified as key drivers. According to the American Association of Planners in 2006, the most important issues for infill projects in general are law reform, infrastructure replacement, financial and site ownership, and the formation of a partnership system, which is almost consistent with the results of this research.so, it is expected that by focusing on these key variable during infill projects in shahshahn neighborhood, infill development as a sustainable regeneration will be accrued.
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