خلاصة:
در این مقاله یک مدل جاذبه با استفاده از دادههای تلفیقی سالهای 2019-2009 برای کشورهای گروه CIS به تفکیک گروههای HS68 (محصولات سرامیک، شیشه و مصنوعات از شیشه)، HS69 (محصولات سرامیکی) و HS70 (شیشه و مصنوعات شیشهای) برآورد شده است. تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات مرتبط با کشورهای طرف تجاری نشان داد که برگترین شریک تجاری ایران در گروه کالایی HS68 کشورهای قزاقستان، آذربایجان و روسیه و در گروه کالایی HS69 و HS70 کشورهای آذربایجان، ارمنستان، قزاقستان و روسیه میباشند. نتایج برآورد مدل جاذبه نشان داد که قدرت توضیحدهندگی مدل برای هر سه گروه کالایی با استفاده از روشهای حداقل مربعات معمولی، اثرات ثابت و اثرات تصادفی بالا بوده و تجارت گروه کالای HS68 با توجه به تولید ناخالص داخلی صادرکنندگان و واردکنندگان باکشش، تجارت گروه کالایی HS69 با توجه به تولید ناخالص داخلی صادرکنندگان و واردکنندگان به ترتیب بی کشش و باکشش و تجارت گروه کالایی HS70 با توجه به تولید ناخالص داخلی صادرکنندگان و واردکنندگان بیکشش و با کشش بوده است و متغیرهای اندازه و ابعاد اقتصادی تاثیر مثبت و معنیدار و عدم توازن تجاری و مسافت تاثیر منفی و معنیداری بر جریان تجاری کشورهای گروه CIS داشتهاند. همچنین براساس نتایج برآورد پتانسیل تجاری به روش جاذبه در سالهای مورد بررسی ایران در تجارت کالای HS68 با کشورهای قزاقستان، آذربایجان و روسیه و در تجارت کالای HS69و HS70 با کشورهای آذربایجان، ارمنستان و قزاقستان از پتانسیل خود بطورکامل استفاده نکرده و بیشترین ظرفیت بلااستفاده را دارد
To Estimate the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flows was formulated and estimated with panel data from 2009 to 2019 for each of the commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glass and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) as well as HS70 (glass and glass products). The parameters were estimated with a large database using ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects methods. For the three commodity groups, the results were stable across methods. For HS68, exports were elastic with respect to the gross domestic product (GDP) of exporters and importers GDP. For HS69, exports were inelastic with respect to the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to importers GDP. Exports of HS70 were inelastic with the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to the importers. Results show that geographical distance and trade imbalance is negative and significant; trade increases if thetransportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade. To Estimate the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flows was formulated and estimated with panel data from 2009 to 2019 for each of the commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glass and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) as well as HS70 (glass and glass products). The parameters were estimated with a large database using ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects methods. For the three commodity groups, the results were stable across methods. For HS68, exports were elastic with respect to the gross domestic product (GDP) of exporters and importers GDP. For HS69, exports were inelastic with respect to the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to importers GDP. Exports of HS70 were inelastic with the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to the importers. Results show that geographical distance and trade imbalance is negative and significant; trade increases if thetransportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade.To Estimate the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flows was formulated and estimated with panel data from 2009 to 2019 for each of the commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glass and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) as well as HS70 (glass and glass products). The parameters were estimated with a large database using ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects methods. For the three commodity groups, the results were stable across methods. For HS68, exports were elastic with respect to the gross domestic product (GDP) of exporters and importers GDP. For HS69, exports were inelastic with respect to the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to importers GDP. Exports of HS70 were inelastic with the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to the importers. Results show that geographical distance and trade imbalance is negative and significant; trade increases if thetransportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade.To Estimate the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flows was formulated and estimated with panel data from 2009 to 2019 for each of the commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glass and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) as well as HS70 (glass and glass products). The parameters were estimated with a large database using ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects methods. For the three commodity groups, the results were stable across methods. For HS68, exports were elastic with respect to the gross domestic product (GDP) of exporters and importers GDP. For HS69, exports were inelastic with respect to the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to importers GDP. Exports of HS70 were inelastic with the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to the importers. Results show that geographical distance and trade imbalance is negative and significant; trade increases if thetransportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade.To Estimate the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flows was formulated and estimated with panel data from 2009 to 2019 for each of the commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glass and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) as well as HS70 (glass and glass products). The parameters were estimated with a large database using ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects methods. For the three commodity groups, the results were stable across methods. For HS68, exports were elastic with respect to the gross domestic product (GDP) of exporters and importers GDP. For HS69, exports were inelastic with respect to the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to importers GDP. Exports of HS70 were inelastic with the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to the importers. Results show that geographical distance and trade imbalance is negative and significant; trade increases if thetransportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade.
ملخص الجهاز:
برآورد پتانسيل تجارت محصولات سراميکي و مصنوعات شيشه اي در گروه کشورهاي CIS (بر اساس مدل جاذبه ) 1 اميررضا سوري دکتري اقتصاد و استاديار موسسه مطالعات و پژوهش هاي بازرگاني مهدي محرمي بالان دانشجوي دکتري اقتصاد و پژوهشگر موسسه مطالعات و پژوهش هاي بازرگاني تاريخ دريافت :١٣٩٩/٠٨/١٨ تاريخ پذيرش : ١٣٩٩/١٢/٢٥ چکيده با توجه به روند رو به رشد تجارت ايران با کشورهاي CIS در کالاهاي محصولات سراميکي و مصـنوعات شيشه اي و به منظور آگاهي سياست گذار از مهم ترين عوامل مؤثر بر تجارت ايران با کشورهاي موردبررسي، در اين مقاله سعي شده است با استفاده از داده هاي تلفيقي سال هـاي ٢٠١٩-٢٠٠٩ و بـر اسـاس مـدل جاذبـه ، پتانسيل تجارت ايران با کشورهاي گروه CIS به تفکيک گروه هاي HS٦٨ (محصولات سراميک ، شيشـه و مصنوعات از شيشه )، HS٦٩ (محصولات سراميکي) و HS٧٠ (شيشه و مصنوعات شيشه اي) بررسـي شـود.
در بخـش سـوم وضعيت تجارت ايران به تفکيک گروه هاي کالايي HS٦٨، HS٦٩ و HS٧٠ در کشـورهاي طـرف تجاري در گروه CIS تجزيه وتحليل خواهد شد و در بخش چهارم ضمن معرفي الگـوي تجربـي بـه شناسايي عوامـل مـؤثر بـر تجـارت محصـولات سـراميکي و مصـنوعات شيشـه اي، بـرآورد کشـش صادرات و واردات اين محصـولات و همچنـين بـرآورد پتانسـيل تجـاري محصـولات سـراميکي و مصنوعات شيشه اي در کشورهاي طرف تجاري پرداخته شده و درنهايت در بخش پنجم جمع بندي و پيشنهادها ارائه شده است .
بــر اســاس همــين معــادلات (٢٠١٤( Naravanan and Sharma و (٢٠١٥( Buongiorno با استفاده از روش هاي اثرات ثابت ، اثرات تصادفي و حداقل مربعات معمولي نشان داد که ايجاد منطقه يورو اثر مثبتي بر جريان تجارت چوب و مشتقات آن در بين کشورهاي اين منطقه داشته است (٢٠١٨( Cantore and Cheng به بررسي عوامل مؤثر بر تجـارت کالاهـاي زيسـت محيطـي در قالب يک جدول داده -ستانده چندمنطقه اي و مدل جاذبه پرداختند.