خلاصة:
تغییرات اقلیمی و پایداری، پس از دهه 1970 میلادی، تبدیل به بزرگترین چالش عصر حاضر بهخصوص در شهرها شده است. یکی از مهمترین راهکارها جهت مقابله با این مسئله، رویکرد تابآوری شهری در پاسخ به تغییرات اقلیمی است که تحت عنوان تابآوری اقلیمی مطرح است. هدف از این پژوهش ارزیابی و سنجش میزان تابآوری نهادی نواحی 15گانه شهر اصفهان در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی با رویکرد نهادگرا است. پژوهش حاضر ازلحاظ هدف کاربردی و ازلحاظ روش توصیفی - تحلیلی میباشد. بهمنظور جمعآوری اطلاعات و دادههای موردنیاز از روش کتابخانهای، میدانی و ابزار پرسشنامه استفادهشده است. برای ارزیابی میزان شاخصهای تابآوری، سه بعد اصلی بستر نهادی، روابط نهادی و عملکرد نهادی، مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. برای تعیین اهمیت نسبی معیارهای مورد پژوهش از فرایند تحلیل شبکهای ANP)) و جهت تعیین میزان تابآوری مناطق در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی از مدل پرومته و گایا بهره برده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد مناطق 4، 9، 2 و 3 ازنظر تابآوری در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی از منظر نهادی دارای وضعیت بسیار مطلوب، مناطق 5 و 6 دارای تابآوری زیاد، مناطق 13، 7 و 12 دارای تابآوری متوسط، مناطق 11، 15 و 1، دارای تابآوری ضعیف و مناطق 10، 8 و 14 در رتبه آخر قرار دارند و جزء محرومترین مناطق، ازنظر برخورداری از شاخصهای تابآوری در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی از منظر نهادی هستند. همچنین این پژوهش نشان داد که شهر اصفهان در معرض تغییرات اقلیمی قرار دارد و باتوجهبه موقعیت قرارگیری آن در یک منطقه خشک و تغییر اقلیم آن به فراخشک در سالهای اخیر میتواند بر سیستم شهری و ساکنان آن اثرگذار باشد. درنهایت میتوان بیان داشت که شهر اصفهان در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی یک شهر پایدار نبوده و با ادامه وضع موجود، توان تابآوری در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی را نخواهد داشت.
After the 1970s, climate change and sustainability have become the biggest challenges of the present age, especially in cities. The approach of urban resilience in response to climate change is one of the most important solutions to deal with this issue, which is discussed under the title of climate resilience. This research has been conducted with the aim of evaluating and measuring the institutional resilience of 15 districts of Isfahan city against climate change with an institutional approach. The present study is considered as an applied study in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical research in terms of method. Library, field and questionnaire methods have been used to collect the required information and data. The three main dimensions of the institutional framework, institutional relations and institutional performance, have been evaluated to evaluate the level of resilience indicators. The ANP network analysis process has been used to determine the relative importance of the studied criteria and the Prometheus and Gaia model has been used to determine the resilience of regions against climate change. According to the results of the research, districts 9, 4, 3, 2 have a very favorable situation in terms of resilience against climate change from an institutional point of view, districts 5 and 6 have high resilience, districts 13, 7 and 12 have medium resilience, districts 11, 15 and 1, have weak resilience and districts 10, 8 and 14 are ranked last, and are among the most deprived regions in terms of having resilience indicators against climate change from an institutional perspective. the results of this study show that Isfahan city is exposed to climate changes, and due to its location in a dry region and changing its climate to semi-arid in recent years, it can affect the urban system and its residents. Finally, it can be said that Isfahan is not a stable city against climate change, and if the current situation continues, it will not be able to withstand climate change in the future.Extended Abstract1-IntroductionToday, climate change as the mother of possible natural disasters is no longer far-fetched, but is a current reality, in such a way that the damages caused by floods and storms have been repeated in these years, especially in cities where a lot of population and capitals have been accumulated. Cities are the main actors in climate change, therefore urban centers should be prepared with appropriate tools to encounter the effects of climate change. One of the most important ideas that has been proposed in the current decade in both crisis management and urban management is creation of resilient and resistant cities against different crises. Urban resilience is a potential to respond to urban systems before the disasters and after the crises occurrence. Resilience indices in combination with climate solutions (especially climate adaptation) have the ability to deal with the effects of climate change. Considering the special features of the megalopolis of Isfahan, including being the capital of the province, more concentration of administrative and economic centers of the province, the presence of timeworn and dense structures, the presence of the critical water basin of Zayandeh Rood, etc., this city is exposed to the dangers caused by the occurrence of horrible climatic hazards. Therefore, this necessity is seriously felt to measure the resilience of Isfahan city using different methods and models in order to take an effective step to reduce the damages caused by climate change and to make the city resilient by identifying the effective components in increasing the resilience of the studied area. More precisely, the goal of this study is evaluating and measuring the institutional resilience of the 15 districts of Isfahan city against climate change. In order to achieve the goal, the current study seeks to answer the following question: In terms of resilience against climate change, in what situations are the different regions of Isfahan city? and how much resilient are they?2-Materials and MethodsThis research is of applied type and has used the analytical-descriptive method for investigating the studied parameters. The statistical population includes residents of 15 districts of Isfahan city, experts and connoisseurs. To evaluate institutional resilience indices, three main indices of institutional base, institutional relations and institutional performance were used in the form of 18 indices which were collected through a questionnaire at 15 districts of Isfahan city. In order to express the relative importance of each of the indices, Analytical Network Process (ANP) has been used. In this research, Super Decisions software was used to determine the indices, Visual PROMETHEE software was used to run the model, and GIS software was used to draw the output. The model used for data analysis is Promethee multi-criteria decision making model and Gaia analysis.3- Results and DiscussionThe average annual temperature at this station in 1979 was 23.34 degrees Celsius, which has reached 24.44 degrees Celsius in 2020. Therefore, according to statistical analysis, the annual temperature at this station has been increasing from 1979 to 2020, also, the average amount of summer and winter rainfall in Isfahan city has decreased during 1979-2020. The ranking of the 15 districts of Isfahan city in terms of resilience against climate change based on the Prometheus model shows that regions 9, 4, 3, 2 ranked first to fourth with scores of 0.1296, 0.1074, 0.0267 and 0.0254 respectively. These districts have a very favorable situation in terms of resilience against climate change. Districts 5 and 6 have high resilience by obtaining net flow of 0.0133 and 0.0109, respectively. Districts 13, 7, and 12 have a moderate resilience status with a net flow of 0.0067, 0.0024, and 0.0022. Districts 11, 15, and 1 have a weak resilience status with a net flow of -0.0187, -0.281, and -0.0390, respectively. Districts 10, 8, and 14 are in the last rank with gross flow of -0.0524, -0.0802, and -0.1062, respectively, and are among the most deprived districts in terms of institutional resilience against climate change. According to PROMETHEE arc pattern, the 14th district of Isfahan city has the most weak indices (-1). In other words, only three indices of the responsibility of governmental organizations in times of crisis (X6), officials' planning to prevent the consequences and damages caused by climate change (X7) and the cooperation of local organizations in providing the necessary trainings to deal with climate change regularly. In schools and other institutions (X11), are in the strong part (1+) of the arc pattern. The rest of the variables are placed in the weak area (-1) of the arc pattern. Regionally, in the city of Isfahan, region 14 has the most negative structure (-1) and region 4 has the most positive structure (+1) in the arc pattern. Also, in districts 4 and 9, all indices are in a positive position, and these two districts are more resilient to climate changes compared to other districts.4- ConclusionGenerally, the results of this study show that Isfahan city is exposed to climate changes, and due to its location in a dry region and changing its climate to semi-arid in recent years, it can affect the urban system and its residents. The evidence shows that in recent years, Isfahan city has suffered unplanned and unregulated development, which has caused it to have weak climate resilience and great vulnerability to natural hazards. It can also be said that in most districts of Isfahan city, non-serious and far-fetched attitude towards the category of climate change from the residents, existing weaknesses in informing the relevant organizations about the necessary trainings in the field of preparation to deal with climate change, lack of attention to specific groups in the category of dealing with climate change, lack of trust in institutions related to the climate change issue and unresponsiveness of service institutions have reduced the resilience of the Isfahan city against climate change, especially in marginal and less privileged districts, so that inattention and inattention to the issue of climate change can lead to many physical and human injuries in the future, especially in these districts and at the top of them, district 14. Finally, it can be said that Isfahan is not a stable city against climate change, and if the current situation continues, it will not be able to withstand climate change in the future.
ملخص الجهاز:
باتوجه به مطالب يان شده ، در راستاي پايـداري شـهري، کـاهش آسـيب پذيري ناشـي از تغييـرات اقليمـي و تـاب آور نمـودن منطقه شهر اصفهان اين ضرورت به طورجدي احساس مي شود کـه بـا اسـتفاده از روش هـا و مـدل هاي مختلـف ميـزان تـاب آوري نهادي نواحي شهر اصفهان در سه معيار بستر نهادي، روابط نهادي و عملکـرد نهـادي مـورد سـنجش قـرار گيـرد تـا بـا شناسـايي مؤلفه هاي مؤثر در افزايش تاب آوري محدوده موردمطالعـه ، بـه منظور کـاهش خسـارات ناشـي از تغييـرات اقليمـي جهـت تـاب آور نمودن و پايداري شهر گامي مؤثر برداشته شود؛ بنـابراين ، در جهـت تـاب آوري و پايـداري هرچـه بيشـتر محـيط و جامعـه درگيـر توجه به بعد نهادي در تاب آوري شهر از ضروريات است باتوجه به اينکـه تـاب آوري نهـادي بـه عنوان ظرفيـت جوامـع بـراي کـاهش خطر و ايجاد پيوندهاي سازماني در درون جامعه تعريف مي شود، بـه نوعي کـه ويژگي هـاي مـرتبط بـا تقليـل خطـر برنامـه ريزي و تجربه سوانح قبلي را در بر ميگيرد در ين راستا پژوهش حاضر در ارتباط بـا مرحلـه پـيش از بحـران و معطـوف بـه تعـديل خطـر بحران است .
همچنين در شکل هاي ٧ و ٨، آشکارساز تغييرات اقليمـي شـهر اصـفهان طـي دوره آمـاري (٢٠١٨-١٩٨٩) اقلـيم اين شهر از يمه مرطوب ملايم به يمه خشک ملايم و سـپس بـه يمه خشـک تغييـر پيـدا کـرده اسـت کـه نشـان دهنده تغييـرات اقليمي در کلان شهر اصفهان هست .
تاب آوري مناطق شهر اصفهان بر اساس الگـوي قوسـي PROMETHEE بـه لحـاظ برخـورداري از هرکـدام از شاخص هاي تاب آوري نهادي در برابر تغييرات اقليمي نشان داده شده است .
به صـورت کلـي مي تـوان گفت اين منطقه در مقايسه با ديگر مناطق شهر اصـفهان بـه لحـاظ برخـورداري از امکانـات و زيرسـاخت هاي شـهري محروم تـرين منطقه شهر اصفهان است پس باتوجه به عوامل ذکرشـده بـديهي اسـت کـه ايـن منطقـه پـايين ترين تـاب آوري شـهري را در برابـر تغييرات اقليمي داشته باشد.