خلاصة:
باوجود اجرای برنامه‌ها و سیاست‌های گوناگون برای کاهش سن ازدواج و تشویق افراد به ازدواج در یک دهۀ گذشته، میانگین سن ازدواج همچنان روندی افزایشی دارد. مطالعۀ حاضر، دلایل و تعیین‌کننده‌های تأخیر در ازدواج را در میان زوجین تازه ازدواج کرده در ایران بررسی کرده است. به این منظور داده‌های پیمایش ملی ازدواج، متشکل از 8349 نفر تجزیه‌وتحلیل شد. مطالعۀ حاضر به روش کمی و با استفاده از تکنیک تحلیل ثانویه انجام شده است. میانگین سن زنان و مردان در هنگام اولین ازدواج، به‌ترتیب برابر با 6/23 و 4/27 سال و میانگین سن ایده‌آل ازدواج آ‌نها 23 و 26 سال بود. میانگین سن ازدواج در بین افراد شهرنشین، اهل تشیع، شاغل، بی‌سواد، گیلک‌ها و مازندرانی‌ها بالاتر بود. به‌طور کلی حدود 40درصد افراد دیرتر از سن ایده‌آل مدنظرشان ازدواج کرده بودند. برای مردان، «مشکلات اقتصادی» و برای زنان، «نیافتن فرد مناسب»، دلیل اصلی تأخیر در ازدواج بیان شد. برخلاف انتظار، تأخیر در ازدواج در میان مردان بلوچ، عرب و کُرد در مقایسه با مردان فارس در سطح بالاتری قرار داشت. مسائل اقتصادی و بیکاری دلیل اصلی این تأخیر از سوی این افراد بیان شده است که با سطح توسعۀ اقتصادی پایین مناطقی مطابقت دارد که این اقوام در آنجا زندگی می‌کنند. اینکه مشکلات اقتصادی هنوز یکی از دلایل اصلی در تأخیر ازدواج است، نشان می‌دهد بسیاری از برنامه‌هایی که برای تأثیرگذاری بر ازدواج طراحی و اجرا شده‌اند، ناموفق بوده‌اند و باید دوباره ارزیابی و بازنگری شوند.
Introduction Postponement of marriage is a global phenomenon. On average, the mean age at first marriage has increased for both genders by about two years during the first two decades of the 21st century (UN Population Division, 2016). The age at first marriage has sharply risen in the United States and advanced parts of Europe since the 1960s, and in southern Europe and Ireland since the 1970s and 1980s. The upward trend in these countries has reached that of the former communist eastern European countries in the 1990s (Jelnov, 2019; Jones, 2007). Additionally, several East and Southeast Asian countries have experienced this trend since the mid-1980s (Leete, 1994). Although marriage holds a high social status and remains common in Iran, its patterns have changed. Despite various programs and policies implemented in the last decade to reduce the age of marriage, the Singulate Mean Age at Marriage (SMAM) continues to increase consistently. It has risen consistently over the past four decades (Torabi and Mesgarzadeh, 2017). Generational patterns of marriage have also shifted, with younger generations tending to marry at older ages (Bagi, 2022). In fact, marriage rates have decreased (Abbasi et al., 2018), and permanent celibacy has increased (Beladi Mousavi, 2017). Understanding the reasons behind the delay in marriage or the decision to remain unmarried is a question that has intrigued demographers and social researchers. This study aims to investigate the reasons for the delay in marriage among recently married couples in Iran and explore its determinants. It seeks to address the following questions: What are the SMAM and ideal age of marriage based on individual characteristics? Is there a difference between the actual and ideal ages of marriage? And what are the most significant reasons for delayed marriage and its determinants? Material & Methods This study is based on the secondary analysis of quantitative data obtained from the National Marriage Survey, excluding data from Tehran Province due to lack of cooperation. The statistical population consists of men and women who underwent premarital tests at medical laboratories. Only individuals experiencing their first marriage were included in the analysis, resulting in a total of 8,349 participants. Two variables were utilized to assess the delay in marriage: "age at first marriage" and "ideal age of marriage." The former was determined by the actual date of marriage, while the latter was established through the question, "At what age is marriage considered ideal?" Individuals who married later than their ideal age were categorized as having a delayed marriage. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The average age of marriage was 24.5 years, and the average ideal age was 21.4 years. The study revealed that the participants, on average, got married 3.1 years later than their perceived ideal age for marriage. The singulate mean ages at marriage for men and women in the study were 23.6 and 27.4 years, respectively, while their mean ideal ages for marriage were 23 and 26 years, respectively. The singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM) was found to be higher among Shiites, city dwellers, employed individuals, illiterate individuals, and the Gilak and Mazandarani ethnic groups. Overall, approximately 40% of the participants tended to marry later than their ideal age for marriage. Among males, economic problems were identified as the primary reason for the delay in marriage, with 35.9% citing "financial problems" and 12.6% citing "job problems and unemployment" as major factors. Other reasons mentioned included "not finding the right person," "pursuing education," "military service," and "lack of housing." Iranian families are structured around a male-breadwinner model, which explains the norm of men experiencing delayed marriage due to economic constraints. The labor market in Iran is characterized by inflexibility, leading to high rates of youth unemployment. Additionally, it typically takes an average of three years for a university graduate to secure employment. Consequently, individuals who face concerns regarding various socio-economic aspects of marriage tend to postpone their nuptials, as highlighted by Becker (1981). "Not finding the right person" was cited as the main reason for the delay in marriage among women, accounting for 31% of the responses. Financial problems were mentioned by only 7.3% of the women. Another significant factor was "studying." Cultural issues were predominantly mentioned by women compared to men. For instance, the issue of "not being interested in marriage" was highlighted by a higher percentage of women (3%) compared to men (1.7%). Our results indicate that approximately 60% of the women who reported not finding the right partner had obtained tertiary education, and of these, 36% were employed. This observation can be attributed to Becker's theory on the marriage market, which suggests that women may face a success gap or marriage squeeze. The pursuit of higher education and the high expectations of this group of women may contribute to difficulties in finding a suitable partner. Women with higher education often face a marriage squeeze because many men prefer to marry women with lower levels of education. Consequently, highly educated and employed women tend to seek partners who are at least on par with their educational achievements. Furthermore, as highlighted by McDonald (2008), women's perspectives on gender equality tend to evolve as their educational levels increase. For highly educated women, marriage may not be a top priority, as they may prefer to pursue careers in the labor market. However, it is important to note that female economic participation in Iran remains relatively low, with a high unemployment rate among women. Additionally, a gender wage gap persists. Unexpectedly, delayed marriage was higher among Baluch, Arab, and Kurdish men compared to Persian men. Economic challenges and unemployment were the main reasons for their delays, which is consistent with the low levels of economic development in the areas where these ethnicities reside. The delay in marriage caused by economic problems has revealed that the majority of policy measures designed and implemented to impact marriage have been ineffective and require evaluation and review. From 2004 to 2016, a total of 5 laws, 2 papers, 1 bill, and 3 policy cases were introduced to promote marriage. However, during this period, there was an increase in the average age of marriage and a decrease in the number of marriages. This suggests that the failure of these policies can be attributed to the fact that they were based on the personal ideals of politicians, rather than being grounded in research findings that reflect the realities of society.
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