خلاصة:
پایداری مفهومی پیچیده است و در مناطق شهری کاربرد فراوانی دارد. در نگاه پایداری شهرهای میراث جهانی همچون یزد جایگاه ویژه‌ای دارند. مطالعات پایداری شهرهای میراثی همچون شهر یزد با توجه به وجود عناصر میراث تاریخی_فرهنگی در آنها نسبت به سایر شهرها متفاوت‌تر است. بر این اساس با توجه به این که شهر یزد حاوی میراثی گرانبهاست که از نسلی به نسل امروز به ارث رسیده است، براساس نگاه پایداری این ضرورت وجود دارد، نسل حاضر نیز در حفظ و انتقال آن به نسل آتی کوشا باشد و همچنین تغییرات روزافزون بافت میراث جهانی شهر یزد این ضرورت را ایجاد می‌کند تا از آینده‌های پیش روی این بافت ارزشمند آگاه شده و بر اساس این شناخت، بر تحولات آتی محدوده مورد مطالعه فائق آمد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی پیشران‌های اثرگذار بر روند توسعه پایدار بافت میراث جهانی شهر یزد و همچنین ترسیم سناریوهای آینده این میراث جهانی زنده با تاکید بر توسعه پایدار، صورت پذیرفته است. در این پژوهش ابتدا با مطالعه اسناد مربوط، 24 متغیر به عنوان عوامل مؤثر بر روند توسعه پایدار بافت میراث جهانی شهر یزد شناسایی شدند. سپس با هدف شناسایی پیشران‌های محدوده مورد مطالعه، میزان اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری این عوامل بر روی ابعاد توسعه پایدار (اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی) به کمک تکنیک تاپسیس فازی و نظرخواهی از متخصصین صاحب‌نظر این حوزه، بر اساس طیف لیکرت (طیف 7تایی) و در دو پرسشنامه مجزا، مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. با توجه به یافته‌های پژوهش جمعیت، مشارکت ساکنین، مهاجرت، رقابت‌پذری، خدمات گردشگری، حفاظت از بافت میراث جهانی (کالبدی_عملکردی) و اشتغال بیشترین نقش را در وضعیت آتی بافت میراث جهانی شهر یزد ایفا می‌کنند. در تحلیل وضعیت سناریوهای بافت میراث جهانی شهر یزد ، شرایط حاضر میراث تاریخی شهر یزد با سناریوی ایده آل فاصله دارد و بیشتر به سوی سناریوی بحرانی تمایل دارد و برای حفظ پایداری راه پر فراز و نشیبی پیش روی خود می‌بیند. اگر صحنه برنامه‌ریزی را در قالب طیفی از شرایط بحرانی تا مطلوبیت کامل فرض کنیم و شـرایط بحرانـی را دوری کامل از اهداف آرمانی و مطلوبیت را نزدیکی کامل با اهداف آرمانی بدانیم، باید گفت بافت تاریخی در حال حاضر مسیر درستی را طی نمی‌کند و از شرایط خوبی برخوردار نیست.
Highlights The foresight is very important in the preservation of the valuable heritage of a city and its transfer to the next generation. The connection of the TOPSIS method and the fuzzy model is a realistic composition, which analyzes complex issues and relationships correctly and simply at the same time. Scenarios and scenario planning make up an essential part of the future research process. The world heritage of the city of Yazd, Iran is a unique testimony of a cultural tradition or a living or lost civilization of human-environment interaction. Up-to-date tourism services, development of identity-oriented employment, and balance in the migration process are very important in the sustainable development of the world heritage area. Introduction Various issues have threatened the stability of cities. The application of the concept of sustainable development in the modern urban environment can be very effective in the solution of these problems. In the meantime, the study of the sustainability of cities with cultural and historical heritage such as Yazd is different from that of other cities. The presence of precious historical and cultural heritage has made this city unique, and it has also made its studies and management more sensitive. Therefore, given that the Yazd contains a valuable heritage that has been inherited from generation to generation and based on the perspective of sustainable development, it is necessary for the present generation to make efforts to preserve and transfer it to the next generation. Thus, the ever-increasing changes in the historical areas of the city make it necessary to be aware of the future of this valuable area and overcome its future transformations based on this knowledge. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to identify the driving forces affecting the process of sustainable development and to provide the future scenarios of the world-heritage area of Yazd with an emphasis on sustainable development. Theoretical Framework Urban planning and future studies are both primarily future-oriented. They both deal with ambiguous, multifaceted, controversial issues with uncertain outcomes. Their common goal is to provide a better future. The responsibility of future researchers is to help people express beautiful dreams, and the responsibility of planners is to help make these dreams come true. The previous studies and observations of the process of formation and construction of the world heritage of Yazd and the stability of this valuable treasure from the past up to now indicate the conscious connection made by the people of that age between efficient and futuristic urban planning. By learning from our predecessors, developing plans and future research techniques, and understanding the importance of connecting these two fields, we must preserve this lasting heritage by understanding future changes and planning intelligently. Methodology The current research is practical in terms of purpose and a document survey in terms of data collection. An initial study of the relevant documents helped to identify the drivers of the process of sustainable development of the world-heritage site of Yazd. Then, the key drivers were identified and ranked based on experts’ opinions using the fuzzy method of TOPSIS. Finally, optimistic, intermediate, and critical scenarios were provided for the studied area based on the different states of the engines in the Scenario Wizard software. Results and Discussion The findings of the research demonstrate that of the 24 variables affecting the process of sustainable development of the historical area of Yazd, 7 drivers play leading roles in the future state of the area population, participation of residents, migration, competitiveness, tourism services, protection of the area (physical-functional), and employment. Moreover, the findings indicate the prominent role of social indicators compared to others in the process of sustainable development of this area, which shows the importance of these indicators in regard to preservation and sustainable development. In the interpretation of the thematic layering of the seven identified drivers, the three drivers of population, migration, and employment are defined as the components of the concept of sustainable development of the historical area. This means that changes made in these drivers considerably affect the area. Eight powerful scenarios were developed based on the results of the analysis matrix of the mutual effects of the assumptions made in the three optimistic, intermediate, and critical situations for each of the identified drivers. One ideal scenario, two optimistic scenarios, three pessimistic scenarios, and two critical scenarios were evaluated. Conclusion In the analysis of the scenarios, it can be pointed out that the existing historical conditions of Yazd are far from the ideal scenario, and the city is heading towards a critical scenario, facing ups and downs in order to maintain the stability of operation. Let us assume the planning scene as a spectrum from critical conditions to full optimality and consider the former as the longest distance from the ideals and the latter as the shortest. It should be stated that the historical context is currently not in the right direction, and there are not proper conditions. Therefore, in order to become closer to the ideal scenario based on the identified drivers, it is suggested that service conditions should be considered based on the needs of today’s residents and fair distribution in line with the increase in the population along with the preservation of the original and native population. Moreover, priority should be given to the enhancement and revitalization of the area with an emphasis on tradition, culture, and the use of local materials. In the meantime, particular attention should be paid to the prosperity and diversity of compatible jobs due to the important role of economic issues in development.
(
, 
, 
)
