تجزیه و تحلیل جایگاه صادراتی ایران بر اساس مدل راگمن و شاخص سهم بازار پایدار(CMS) مقالة

مؤلف: صلاح منش، احمد ؛ احمدی، عاطفه ؛ چهرازی مدرسه، سرور ؛

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای بهار و تابستان 1401 - شماره 23 ، ب (Ministry of Science/ISC (‎20 صفحة - من 34 إلی 53 )

الکلمات المفتاحية: رقابت‌پذیری فولاد دارو سهم بازار پایدار (CMS) مدل راگمن Sustainable market share Steel Competitiveness Medicine

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خلاصة:

حضور آگاهانه در بازار جهانی بدون تدوین سیاست‌های مناسب بازرگانی و البته بدون لحاظ مسایل سیاسی و اجتماعی برای بسیاری از کشورهای در حال توسعه از جمله ایران، غیر ممکن است. بر همین اساس در این تحقیق کوشیده شده است تا با توجه به تحریم‌های بین‌المللی، جایگاه صادراتی ایران در دو بازار منتخب دارو و فولاد به وسیله شاخصی به نام سهم بازار پایدار (CMS) در دوره زمانی 2019-2016 ارزیابی شود. برای این منظور با بهره‌گیری از مدل راگمن و استفاده از روش CMS توسعه‌یافته توسط لیمر و استرن، به ارزیابی عملکرد و رقابت‌پذیری ایران پرداخته شد. با توجه به این‌که اثر کالایی، اثر کشوری و اثر رقابتی زیر مجموعه‌های این شاخص هستند، در این تحقیق، ابتدا سه شاخص مذکور برای دو کالای منتخب محاسبه شده و سپس با استفاده از آن‌ها، تغییر در خالص صادرات کشور ارزیابی شده است. نتایج این پژوهش دلالت بر آن دارد که اثر رقابتی نسبت به دو اثر دیگر سهم چشمگیری در رشد صادرات دارو و فولاد داشته و لذا تحریم‌های اقتصادی که بیشترین تاثیر را بر رقابت‌پذیری کشورها در تجارت می‌گذارد؛ نقش پررنگی بر صادرات ایران حتی با وجود عدم تحریم کالای دارو داشته است. همچنین در کنار اثر کالایی که نتایج آن خارج از اراده کشور است نتایج حاصل از اثر کشوری بیان می‌کنند که در سال 2016، کشور آلمان و در سال‌های 2017 و 2019 کشور روسیه بهترین بازار هدف دارو و همچنین ترکیه بدترین و تایلند بهترین مقصد صادراتی فولاد ایران بوده‌اند.

1- INTRODUCTION Today, many companies and manufacturers are trying to enter the international market. Due to the new conditions of the current markets, it is no possible to enter such markets by trial and error. Therefore, considering the importance of this issue, this study tries to examine the effects of sanctions resulting from the Barjam and post-Barjam agreements on two selected industries that are domestically produced in Iran and traded internationally. In other words, if these industries are subject to sanctions, although they are not subject to sanctions, what will be the performance of these industries at the international level. Therefore, this study seeks to examine the variability of market share of these industries during sanctions or the absence of sanctions. 2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Since the economic activities of each country are not limited to the domestic environment, their competitiveness is not focused on the domestic environment, and each country has trade relations with different countries. One of the important factors for countries to choose trade partners is proximity and geographical proximity, the existence of economic and political relations between the two countries. Based on this, Ragman proposed a concept model called dual diamond for smaller countries, which was a combination of the internal characteristics of countries and their trading partners. Ragman states his model that a country's competitive advantage is due to the internal and external environment of countries, and the outcome of the diamond model factors in these two environments determines the competitiveness of countries. 3- METHODOLOGY According to the analysis of the effectiveness of two commodities drug and steel trade, one of which is not subject to sanctions and the other has been subject to sanctions, the use of sustainable market share index is more beneficial than other methods of evaluating comparative advantage and competitiveness. According to this index, a country's exports are successful if they can grow at least as much as global imports. This growth can be due to a focus on commodities whose consumption is increasing worldwide (commodity effect) or a focus on target markets whose consumption is growing faster than the global average (national effect) or the internal factors of the exporting country that increase Influence and share in target markets (competitive effect). Therefore, in order to estimate the above three effects, in this paper, the CMS method developed by Lamer and Stern has been used. 4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION About of drug commodities, in 2016 and 2019, the commodity effect of commodity drugs has been positive for the countries under study. But in 2017 and 2018, the commodity effect of the drug has been negatived for all countries surveyed. Country effect in 2016 and 2017 was positive for Germany, Russia and Norway, and in 2019 was positive only in Russia. about of steel, in 2016 and 2019, the negative commodity effect was obtained, and in 2017 and 2018, it was positive for all countries. In other words, in 2016 and 2019, the growth of steel imports slowed down than the growth of imports of other goods in the world, and in 2017 and 2018, it also accelerated. Country effect of steel, among target market countries, shows in 2016 for Thailand and Belgium, in 2017 for Italy, Spain, Turkey and Belgium, in 2018 for Italy, Thailand, Spain and Belgium and in 2019 is also a positive year for Thailand. 5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS Stable Market Share Index (CMS) in relation to drug products shows that Iran's advantage in the drug market in 2018 and 2019 is not stable. The change in net exports (total effect) in all export markets of the country is negative, which goes beyond the negative effect of goods in 2018 and the positive effect in 2019, which is outside the will of the country, on the one hand due to improper selection of markets such as France, UK, Germany. And Norway (their country effect is negative) and on the other hand returns to the negative competitive effect in the last two years of the study period. In 2016, among the target markets studied, Germany and in 2017 and 2019, Russia are the best target markets for Iranian medicine. According to the index of stable market share in relation to steel goods (goods subject to sanctions), Iran in abuot of commodity effect in 2017 and 2018 has a better situation than in 2016 and 2019. Country effect shows that among the countries studied, Turkey is the worst and Thailand is the best destination for Iranian steel exports during the years under study. As the results show, the competitive effect is positive for all countries surveyed during 2016 and 2017. This means that Iran has been able to control a large part of the steel imports of these countries in these two years, but in 2018 and 2019, due to the withdrawal of the United States from the Barjam agreement and the direct impact of these sanctions, this effect has been negative.

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