خلاصة:
آینده پژوهی در سطح محلی نوعی آیندهنگاری است، که با ضرورت برنامهریزی جامع توسعه و پیشبینی آتی در محدوده خاص و در سطح یک ناحیه با هدف اتخاذ تصمیمات معین برای تحقق آینده مطلوب، تمرکز دارد. در همین راستا پژوهشی به روش توصیفی– تحلیلی و از نوع کاربردی با تاکید بر مشارکت پذیری و با هدف شناسایی عوامل کلیدی موثر بر وضعیت آینده مناطق روستایی در حوزههای بومشناسی، کالبدی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی، اقتصادی، سیاسی و مدیریتی، آغاز شد. جامعه آماری شامل کلیه ساکنین و جمعیت ساکن در بخشهای گرمادوز با دو دهستان و مرکزی با دو دهستان و مجموعا تعداد 104 آبادی است. نمونه آماری پژوهش بر پایه روش کوکران تعداد 377 نفر تعیین شد. پس از آنکه تعداد 96 سوال پژوهشی از نوع طیف لیکرت محقق ساخته در چارچوب 14 شاخص طراحی و تدوین شد، دادههای مورد نیاز با استفاده از عملیات میدانی در سطح 104 آبادی از طریق برگزاری جلسات گروه بحث و از طریق تشکیل هستههای مشارکتی با استفاده از خبرگان محلی، نمایندگان گروههای مختلف جمعآوری گردید. و در نهایت شناسایی عوامل کلیدی موثر در جهت تدوین سناریوهای آینده و شناسایی پیشرانهای توسعه بر وضعیت آینده به واسطه نرم افزارmic mac و با تاکیه بر تحلیل عاملی، بعمل آمد. نتایج نشان داد که سه عامل: پایداری محیط زیست، حفاظت از منابع طبیعی، مدیریت زمین و تولیدات کشاورزی از طریق تحلیل اثرات متقابل/ ساختاری، به عنوان عوامل کلیدی منطقه مورد مطالعه، انتخاب و زیر متغیرهای هریک از این عوامل (استخراج شده از تحلیل عاملی) به عنوان برنامهها و پروژههای پیشران تعیین شد.
Introduction
One of the vital orientations in line with development policies is innovative foresight. The term foresight and foresight refers to a wide range of approaches that avoid repetitive outcomes and improve decision-making and attempt to map the best possible future over a long-term time horizon, thus striving to achieve comprehensive planning. And achieving local, micro and regional sustainable development and reducing regional imbalances, recognizing the criteria and key capabilities of these sectors and changing the approach from forecasting to future research is an undeniable necessity. And based on this, the goal and question of this research is to identify key factors that are effective in formulating future scenarios and to identify development factors on the future situation.
Materials and Methods
The current research is descriptive and analytical and applied in nature.which was realized by emphasizing participation with the presence of all stakeholders. The scope of research is at the local level. And the target area includes ecological, physical, social and cultural, economic, political and managerial. The type of expected output is the way to identify the key factors affecting the future situation with an emphasis on the modeling method of the factor analysis type and the target groups including all the residents of the settlements and governmental and non-governmental organizations.which followed the Delphi method. So that the required data has been collected using field operations at the level of 104 villages through holding discussion group meetings through the formation of cooperative cores using local experts, representatives of different groups using the Delphi method. And finally, identification of key factors was used to develop future scenarios and identification of development drivers.
Results and discussion
Future visions are one of the key measures. And it can be used strategically for policy making. In addition to that, it can help everyone to understand the concept of their development through future change. However, until the last two decades, it followed the traditional top-down approach. And it did not provide a long-term and growing economic base. But today, local initiatives and bottom-up development (endogenous development) have led to changes in spatial development. Therefore, this matter was taken into consideration in order to make this research as close to reality as possible. And it is even differentiating this research from other research findings.which mainly emphasize the role of governments (traditional top-down planning approach). But this research has adopted the endogenous approach (planning and policy-making from the bottom up). And the planners and policy makers are obliged to use the participation of local residents and the results of research findings for the future study of Khadafarin city in formulating spatial development plans.In this way, to have a significant impact on the future events and processes of Khadafarin city and draw long-term results.
Conclusion
This research was established with the aim of investigating and identifying key factors using the intellectual basis of factor analysis. And the method used in it has unique complexity and innovation. And it is among the first scientific experience of studies related to future research at the local level. Therefore, it should be acknowledged that various factors can affect the arrangement of phenomena and structure and consequently the spatial organization of a region. It seems that the identification of different and integrated methods can be of great help in this process. Therefore, considering the identification of three key factors: 1- Environmental sustainability (with 8 programs and Pishran projects) 2- Protection of natural resources (with 3 programs and Pishran projects) 3- Land management and agricultural production (with 3 programs and Pishran project); Through mutual/structural effects analysis, these factors were selected as the key factors of the study area, and the subvariables of each of these factors (extracted from factor analysis type modeling) were determined as driving programs and projects.