Abstract:
مدیریت و برنامهریزی متوازن توسعه کشاورزی مستلزم شناخت نابرابریها، فاصلهها و اتّخاذ رویکرد منطقهای و تمرکززدایی بهمنظور هدایت مناسب امکانات، سرمایهها و نیروی انسانی است. بنابراین پژوهش حاضر با رویکرد توصیفی تحلیلی در پی رسیدن به دو هدف صورت گرفته است: الف. مشخص کردن وضعیت توسعهیافتگی کشاورزی شهرستانهای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد با استفاده از تکنیکهای چند معیاره (تاپسیس، ویکور و ساو) ب. ارائه یک مدل تلفیقی بر اساس نتایج این سه مدل با استفاده از تکنیک کپ لند. جامعه آماری شامل 8 شهرستان استان بر اساس سرشماری سال 1395 میباشد. دادههای موردنیاز پژوهش (34 متغیر) با استفاده از سالنامه آماری سال 1394 و سرشماری سال 1390 جمعآوریشده است. همچنین وزن هرکدام از متغیرها با استفاده از روش AHP (مقایسه دوبهدو) مشخص و نقشههای مربوط به وضعیت توسعهیافتگی شهرستانها با استفاده از نرمافزارGis ترسیمشده است. نتایج پژوهش بیانگر آن است که در سطح استان هیچ شهرستانی به لحاظ امکانات کشاورزی در سطح توسعهیافتگی بسیار بالا قرار ندارد، همچنین میان شهرستانهای استان شکاف توسعهای و ناهمگنی آشکاری وجود دارد زیرا شهرستان بویراحمد با مقدار شاخص تلفیقی 797/0 در رتبه اول (وضعیت نسبتا توسعهیافته) و شهرستان باشت با اختلاف 653/0 و مقدار شاخص تلفیقی 144/0 در رتبه هشتم (وضعیت کاملا محروم از توسعه) قرار دارد. 5/37 درصد شهرستانها نسبتا توسعهیافته، 25 درصد شهرستانها در وضعیت توسعهیافتگی متوسط، 25 درصد شهرستانها نسبتا محروم از توسعه و درنهایت 5/12 درصد شهرستانهای استان کاملا از توسعه محروم هستند.
Introduction
Failure to recognize the state and bottlenecks of agriculture is a serious obstacle to the balanced distribution of resources and the comprehensive planning to address less developed areas. Understanding these issues and developing appropriate programs to eliminate or reduce them include: improving agriculture, optimizing the potential of the agricultural sector, increasing production, increasing farmerschr('39') incomes, consolidating rural populations, and promoting the agricultural development of the region. This requires determining the developmental levels of the studied area in terms of agricultural development indicators in order to analyze the agricultural situation in the region. Therefore, in order to be more precise in planning and achieve sustainable agriculture development, it is necessary to identify agricultural areas regarding development and inadequacy. Hence, measuring the level of agricultural development in different areas, with regard to natural capacities and institutional constraints and management conditions, is of particular importance in recognizing the regional differences in development, special talents, deprivations and inequalities. In this way, agricultural development planning is orientated appropriately in terms of area urgency, volume of investments, types of programs and actions, thus, balanced management and planning of agricultural development requires recognition.
Materials and methods
The type of research is applied and developmental and its method is descriptive-analytical. The statistical population is 8 counties in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Provinces based on the census of 2016. The required information is collected from the Statistical Yearbook (2016), the organization of Agriculture-Jahad, the Agricultural Census and the Organization of Statistics. The studied indicator is agricultural in this research which consists of 34 variables. Also, the selection of variables in a way that emphasizes all aspects of the agricultural index (manpower, infrastructure, mechanization, health, etc.) are emphasized. The weight of each of the variables is determined by the AHP method (Pair-wise copmarison). In this research, SPSS, Excel and quantitative programming models (VIKOR, TOPSIS and SAW) were used to analyze the data of agricultural development in the provinces of the region. Given the fact that the results of these three models were not consistent in some cases, a general consensus was used for the Copeland method. Finally, in order to proper understanding of the development situation in the county, development maps are drawn using the GIS software.
Results and discussion
The results of this study indicate that in the TOPSIS model there is no county in the province with a very high development status. Bahmei and Boyerahmad counties are in relatively agricultural developed condition, Kohgiluyeh, Cheram and Dena in the situation and finally 37/5 percent of the counties, namely, Basht, Gachsaran and Landie counties are relatively deprived and undeveloped in terms of the agricultural index. The analysis of the results of the Vikor model showed that Boyerahmad with a value of 0/091 is in the first rank of agricultural development and in a fully developed state, Kohgiluyeh and Bahmei counties ranked second and third with respectively 0/245 and 0.296 scores and their situation is relatively developed. The most of the counties Charm, Dena and Lange, are numerically equal to 0/409, 0/487 and 0/584 respectively, ranked fourth to sixth, Gachsaran county with the score of 0/712 is ranked seventh and the development status is relatively deprived, and eventually the county of Basht with a numerical value of 1 is ranked 8th and a very unfavorable condition (completely deprived). Also, the results of the SAW model indicate that Boyerahmad County (rank 1) is in a very high development status.
The present study was carried out using agricultural index in the form of 34 variables that were not included in any of the researches done in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province, while presenting realistic findings on the state of development of the agriculture, rational realism for planners - urban and regional, both at provincial level and at country level. A review of the research background and research findings suggest that the results of the study are credible and confirm the results of previous surveys. The findings of the research indicate the agricultural development gap among counties of the province. The results of this study homogeneous with other researches of Fotros & Baheshti Far (2009), Kohnalsal and Rafiee (2010), Jamshidi (2011), Tavakoli (2012 and 2014), BabaeiAgdam et al (2016).
The study of the development condition of agricultural areas of the county using the integrated model showed that in the counties of the province, there is no one with a very high agricultural development status. The county of Boyer Ahmad has a score of 0/797 in the first rank (relatively developed) and the county of Basht with a difference of 0/653 and a combined index of 0/44 in the eighth place (the state is totally deprived of development). Also, 37.5% of the counties (Boyerahmad, Bahmei and Kohgiluyeh) were relatively developed, 25% of the counties (Dena and Chram Counties) were in moderate development, 25 percent (Gachsaran and Lande Counties) were relatively deprived, and, finally, 12.5% of the them (Basht) are totally deprived.
Machine summary:
با توجه به اين نکات در پژوهش حاضر نيز جهت بررسي و تحليل وضعيت توسعه يافتگي کشاورزي (که تعيين کننده وضعيت اقتصاد مناطق است ) در شهرستان هاي استان کهگيلويه و بويراحمد در ابتدا بر اساس مطالعات انجام شده در اين زمينه تعداد ٣٤ متغير (جدول ١) شناسايي شدند سپس وضعيت توسعه يافتگي کشاورزي اين شهرستان ها در قالب سه تکنيک تاپسيس ، ويکور و ساو موردبررسي قرار گرفتند و درنهايت با توجه به اين که اين سه تکنيک نتايج مختلفي از وضعيت توسعه يافتگي کشاورزي شهرستان ها نشان ميدهند براي رسيدن به يک نتيجه واحد از تکنيک کپ لند استفاده شده است : (جدول ٢) (شکل ٣).
نتايج مربوط به سه مدل پژوهش (رجوع شود به تصویر صفحه) تحليل يافته ها در رابطه با جدول ٢ بيانگر آن است که بر اساس نتايج تکنيک تاپسيس در سطح استان هيچ شهرستاني با وضعيت توسعه يافتگي کشاورزي کامل و بسيار بالا قرار ندارد، شهرستان هاي بهمئي و بويراحمد به لحاظ توسعه يافتگي کشاورزي در وضعيت نسبتا توسعه يافته ، ٣ شهرستان کهگيلويه ، چرام و دنا در وضعيت متوسط و درنهايت ٣٧/٥ درصد شهرستان ها يعني سه شهرستان باشت ، گچساران و لنده ازلحاظ بهره مندي از شاخص کشاورزي نسبتا محروم و توسعه نيافته هستند؛ بنابراين وضعيت اقتصادي مناسبي دربخش کشاورزي در شهرستان هاي نسبتا محروم و محروم يعني باشت ؛ گچساران و لنده مشاهده نميشود.
بنابراين براي رسيدن به يک نتيجه گيري کلي از وضعيت توسعه يافتگي کشاورزي شهرستان هاي استان و رسيدن به يک نتيجه مشخص از وضعيت نواحي روستايي اين مناطق با استفاده از روش کپ لند نتايج اين سه تکنيک باهم ترکيب شده است .