Abstract:
پیدایش چین به‌عنوان قدرت بزرگ اقتصادی، گمانه‌زنی‌های سیاسی و آکادمیک بسیاری را در حوزه هژمون شدن این کشور در آینده به‌وجود آورده است. در این زمینه تلاش شد تا به سه پرسش زیر پاسخ داده شود: 1. با روی کار آمدن شی جین پینگ چه دگرگونی‌هایی در راهبردهای کلان چین نمودار شده است؟ 2. چه عواملی به بروز این دگرگونی‌ها منجر شده‌اند؟ 3. چگونه این تأثیرگذاری پدید آمده است؟ با استفاده از تحلیل مفهومی کیفی اسناد راهبردی دولتی و بیانیه‌های مقامات بلندپایه چین، افزون‌بر بررسی دیدگاه‌های نظریه‌پردازان و کارشناسان، تغییر راهبردی در رویکردهای بین‌المللی چین در چارچوب نظری واقع‌گرایی نوکلاسیک مبتنی بر ترکیبی از تأثیر عوامل سطوح داخلی و بین‌المللی بر سیاستگذاری‌های این کشور تبیین خواهد شد. در فرضیه پژوهش بیان می‌شود که رویکرد متفاوت شی جین پینگ در تصمیم‌سازی‌های کلان سیاسی، به تغییر راهبردی مبتنی بر پیگیری اهداف سیاسی- امنیتی توأم با منافع اقتصادی در سطح بین‌المللی برای چین منجر شده است، و ابتکار عمل «کمربند و راه» مهم‌ترین نشانه این تغییر راهبردی به‌شمار می‌آید. دستیابی به موقعیت هژمونیک از راه صلح‌آمیزی در کنار دستاوردهای گسترده اقتصادی و امنیتی برای چین، از مهم‌ترین نتایج اجرایی شدن این ابتکار است. براساس یافته‌های پژوهش، رویکرد متفاوت شی جین پینگ در تصمیم‌سازی‌های کلان سیاسی چین، ناشی از شرایط کنونی حاکم بر ساختار نظام بین‌الملل با رهبری ایالات متحده امریکا بوده و این مسئله به تغییری راهبردی مبتنی بر پیگیری اهداف سیاسی- امنیتی توأم با منافع اقتصادی در سطح بین‌المللی برای چین منجر شده است. ابتکار عمل «کمربند و راه» مهم‌ترین نشانه این دگرگونی راهبردی است.
The emergence of China as a rising economic power has created a lot of political and academic speculations about its hegemony in the international system in the future. What China had been pursuing until a decade ago was a kind of global political-security inaction and mere pursuit of economic development plans. However, its leaders have progressively realized that pursuing purely economic goals would leave the maintenance of the security of the world's sensitive economic corridors to the United States. Accordingly, such attitude might impede the achievement of China's important economic goals. Maintaining peace and stability in strategically valuable regions, including the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA), is crucial for China in order to maintain and expand its access to international markets, and even capital markets. Military adventures in the MECA region have greatly benefited the United States, while maintaining the security of energy transfer from this region to China is considered crucial for the continuation of Chinese industrialization and exports of its manufactured goods. Given this reality, it seemed that a change in China's strategy was necessary.Governments often react differently to similar systematic pressures and opportunities —these reactions are influenced by systemic factors at the domestic level. Hence, domestic political risks associated with the choice of certain foreign policies and the risk-taking propensities of national elites— which are in turn influenced by a set of preferences and perceptions of the elites of the internal and external environments— have a great impact on the policy-making process. It is clear that the worldviews and preferences of the Chinese elites have affected Chinese foreign policymaking. Their preferences which are influenced by domestic needs and systemic pressures in different time periods have led to different policies formulated and implemented by the leadership in China. A variety of approaches, ranging from Mao's revisionist tendencies to Deng Xiaoping's acceptance of the existing international order have been considered throughout the years.Although the acceptance of the existing order has become a key component of China's foreign policy since Deng, it seems that this acceptance is being pursued by using different tactics during the Xi Jinping era. Xi's foreign policy seems more assertive and effective than that of former Chinese President Hu Jintao. While Hu tended to highlight the policies of ‘peaceful rise’, ‘peaceful development’ and ‘scientific development’ in his grand strategy, Xi has distinguished himself by emphasizing nationalism and using the slogan of the Chinese dream. Xi Jinping's emphasis on the merits of patriotism show the current and deep-seated dissatisfaction of the current Chinese leader with the existing international order. The politically and economically-motivated Belt and Road Initiative should be considered as the central grand plan proposed by Xi, who is probably the strongest political figure in China after Deng Xiaoping. This project is guided by a new foreign and security policy, aimed at achieving global hegemony, and replacing the US as the dominant power in the international system.In this paper, an attempt was made to answer the following three questions: 1. What changes have occurred in China's grand strategy and policies since Xi Jinping came into power? 2. What factors have led to these changes? 3. How did these factors affected strategic changes in Chinese policies? By using qualitative conceptual analysis of government strategic documents and statements of high-ranking officials of China, in addition to examining the viewpoints of theorists and experts, significant changes in China's foreign policies within the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism are studied. The policies of this Asian country which are influenced by a set of domestic and international factors will be explained. In the research hypothesis, it is claimed that Xi Jinping's different approach to macro-political decision-making has led to a strategic change in Chinese foreign policy due to the pursuit of political-security goals as well as economic ones at the international level. The "Belt and Road" initiative is the most important sign of this strategic change. Achieving a hegemonic power position by peaceful means, in addition to extensive economic and security achievements for China is one of the most important results of the implementation of this initiative. The findings of the research show that Xi Jinping's different approach to the country’s decision-making was caused by the current conditions governing the structure of the international system which is under the US leadership; and this has led to a strategic change in Beijing policies in pursuit of political and security goals. The "Belt and Road" initiative is the most obvious and important sign of this strategic transformation.
Machine summary:
در فرضيه پژوهش بيان ميشود که رويکرد متفاوت شي جين پينگ در تصميم سازيهاي کلان سياسي، به تغيير راهبردي مبتني بر پيگيري اهداف سياسي- امنيتي توأم با منافع اقتصادي در سطح بين المللي براي چين منجر شده است ، و ابتکار عمل «کمربند و راه » مهم ترين نشانه اين تغيير راهبردي به شمار ميآيد.
ميتوان اين فرضيه را مطرح کرد که رويکرد متفاوت شي جين پينگ در تصميم سازيهاي کلان سياسي، به تغيير راهبردي مبتني بر پيگيري اهداف سياسي- امنيتي توأم با منافع اقتصادي در سطح بين المللي براي چين منجر شده است و ابتکار عمل «کمربند و راه » مهم ترين نشانه اين تغيير راهبردي به شمار مي آيد.
The Position of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Changes of China's Macro Strategy and Policies 2 Ahmad Movassaghi1*, Faeze Haghighi Moradi 1 Professor, Faculty of Law & Political Science, University of Tehran, Iran 2 PhD in Political Science, Faculty of Law & Political Science, University of Tehran, Iran Received: 1 July 2019, Accepted: 2 September 2022 © University of Tehran Abstract The emergence of China as a rising economic power has created a lot of political and academic speculations about its hegemony in the international system in the future.
In the research hypothesis, it is claimed that Xi Jinping's different approach to macro-political decision-making has led to a strategic change in Chinese foreign policy due to the pursuit of political-security goals as well as economic ones at the international level.
com/the-economist-explains/2017/ 05/14/what-is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative (Accessed 1 October 2018).
com/the-economist-explains/2017/ 05/14/what-is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative (Accessed 1 October 2018).
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