چکیده:
Regime change in Tunisia, Egypt, Lihya and Yemen as wellas the continuation of unrest in two other Arab countries, namely, Bahrain and Syria, have doubled attempts and research to comprehend the foundation and trends of these of the theoretical framework and nature of changes in the Arab world in 2011, which can be understood and explained. Also, more importantly,it endeavors to answer how the future resonance of such alterations can be estimated. In this regard, this article hypothesizes that six theories of failed state, uprising against humiliation, pervasive influence, fourth wave of democracy, modification of anti-Americanism and the return to religious identity (Islamic identity), have each explained one significant aspect of these recent changes. However, a substitute theory named "anachronistic ruling," or the untimely ruling, has a more comprehensive capability to explain the nature and estimate the causes of these changes. The article concludes that anachronistic ruling, divided into five elements; the society overtaking Arab governments, unbalanced developments, the alienation of the educated, negligence to a phenomenon called, 'Electronic Politics' and finally radical idealism, have been the main drive behind the recent changes in the Arab world.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"From Bayat's point of view, the most distinct evidence of the theory of quiet encroachment is the Muslim Brotherhood, especially the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), which turned to the society to exercise pressure on the secular and dependent regime of Hosni Mubarak and by organizing the society - through educating students, judges, army, nurses and hospital staff - coerced the government into abandoning its liberal attitude and non-religious ideology, suspending non-Islamic films and suing some anti-religion and secular writers.
The above-mentioned elements, as five systemic factors, provided the necessary requirements for the disintegration of authoritarianism but those systemic elements created democracies in countries where the following facilitating and accelerating factors existed: - Market-based economy, economic growth and modem society - Strong bourgeoisie and a powerful middle-class - High level of education and political discussion and debate as an introduction to political participation - Existence of powerful democratic structures among social groups - Eagerness of political leaders for democracy and seeking to catch up with democratic states - Traditions ofrespecting law, compromising and tolerance - Ethnic, racial and religious contrasts and incompatibilities - Seeing eye to eye in political-social values While Huntington's analysis well justifies the political-social grounds of change in the Arab world, Kagan's view at most defends U."