چکیده:
his paper focuses on Indo-Iranian merchandise trade for a period of 30 years from1980-81 to 2009-10. Study is based on econometric modeling comprising 3 versions of RWM model and alternative forms and specification of regression functions. RWM model(s) evaluates stationary nature of time series data relating to GNP, exports, Imports and total merchandise Indo-Iranian trade. Dickey-Fuller unit root test and Engle-Granger test of co-integration on residuals derived from distributed lag model with partial adjustment hypothesis are used. Results of distributed lag model with partial adjustment hypothesis emerge empirically and theoretically valid. Indo-Iranian trade is found to be affected both by contemporary and lagged values of variables included in the model. But adjustment of actual to desired change in specific trade variables is spread over several periods. Current values of merchandise trade are the slowest to adjust to its desired value; but adjustment of Indian exports to Iran is instantaneous while adjustment of imports requires 2-3 periods. These findings suggest that any contemporary political exigencies or international economic aberrations should not and will not affect the long standing indo-Iranian trade relations. Institutional arrangements and their strengths are stronger than barriers to allow aberrations to be effective. owadays one of the most important issues in our economy, both from economic and political view is the link between monetary policy and the business cycle fluctuations. Amongst the shocks related to supply side, the shock of oil price is the important factor that has affected the world economy since 1970s. This paper examines the effects of monetary policy and oil price shocks on the business cycle fluctuations by applying the factor augmented vector autoregressive approach, Bernanke (2005) … to compare the results with VAR models by using Iran quarterly data for the period 1988:Q2 to 2011:Q3, the FAVAR models explain the effects of monetary policy which are consistent with theory better than VAR models. The results demonstrate a small but significant impact of monetary policy on business cycle fluctuations.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"As it is imperative to evaluate stationary/non-stationary nature of time series models, results of Random Walk Model of (I) Imports, (ii) Exports, (iii) Total Merchandise Trade, and (iv) India’s GNP are analyzed first.
Conclusions Following are the main findings of the paper: 1- Time series of trade and its constituent imports and exports, which are used for analysis, are stationary on application of Dickey-Fuller test; 2- D-F test reveals the time series of India’s GNP to be non-stationary; 3- Distributed lag models, involving imports, exports and total trade as dependent with GNP as independent variable are revealed to be well co-integrated by Engel-Granger test; 4- Introduction of lagged values of imports, exports and total trade in their respective bi-variate regressions improves the explanatory power of 3 initial functions by 7 and 1 percent respectively which makes the distributed lag models acceptable; 5- Distributed lag models with the specification of partial adjustment hypothesis are found appropriate for analyzing Indo-Iranian trade; 6- Adjustment of actual to desired exports is practically instantaneous, adjustment of actual to desired imports of India from Iran involves 2-3 periods, while adjustment of actual to desired total merchandise trade is spread over a pretty long time periods; 7- Short and long run India’s marginal propensities to import, export and trade with Iran differ greatly from corresponding values of short run marginal propensities."