چکیده:
Outbreak of 2009 European sovereign debt (leverage) crisis has been one of the most crucial economic events of recent years. Accordingly, researchers devoted a great deal of efforts to elucidate origins and consequences of this crisis, particularly focusing on its potential effect on international trade flows. Yet in the literature, there have been rare studies on exploring the effects of sovereign debt crisis on the bilateral trade flows of Eurozone members. In this study, by using an augmented gravity model, we have studied the effect of sovereign debt crisis on bilateral trade flows within Eurozone countries. In this regard, we have used cross-section data from six European countries including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece for the period of 1995-2013, and then have estimated the model with a semi-parametric panel data approach. The empirical results have shown that scales of economies and markets play significant parametric roles in the bilateral trade flows in the Eurozone while debt crisis explains trade relations non-parametrically.Outbreak of 2009 European sovereign debt (leverage) crisis has been one of the most crucial economic events of recent years. Accordingly, researchers devoted a great deal of efforts to elucidate origins and consequences of this crisis, particularly focusing on its potential effect on international trade flows. Yet in the literature, there have been rare studies on exploring the effects of sovereign debt crisis on the bilateral trade flows of Eurozone members. In this study, by using an augmented gravity model, we have studied the effect of sovereign debt crisis on bilateral trade flows within Eurozone countries. In this regard, we have used cross-section data from six European countries including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece for the period of 1995-2013, and then have estimated the model with a semi-parametric panel data approach. The empirical results have shown that scales of economies and markets play significant parametric roles in the bilateral trade flows in the Eurozone while debt crisis explains trade relations non-parametrically.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"See for example Krugman (1979), Eichengreen and Rose (1999), Glick and Rose (1999), Forbes (2000), Calvo and Reinhart (1999) and Mendoza (2001).
Accordingly, in the present study, we will use the semi-parametric approach to estimate the specified model of the gravity to evaluate ESDC effects on bilateral trade flows of the selected European countries.
In this paper we have introduced a methodology to estimate a semi- parametric specification of the panel gravity model to explore the effects of ESDC on bilateral trade flows of European countries located in the Eurozone.
This paper thus explores the impacts of the ESDC crisis as well as a set of explanatory variables on bilateral trade through specifying a semi- parametric gravity model.
000 Part (B): Non-parametric Results for the Gravity Model ٣ lcrisis B-spline smooth CI linear fit ٪ ٩ Source: Authors Table 2: Estimation of Panel Semi-parametric Gravity Model for Bilateral Trade: Debt Crisis Effect, Case II, (6 knots) Part (A): Parametric Estimates for the Gravity Model Variable (log) Coefficient t statistics Pr > |t| lgdpe 1.
000 Part (B): Non-parametric Results for the Gravity Model ٣ lcrisis B-spline smooth CI linear fit ٪ ٩ Source: Authors Table 3: Estimation of Panel Semi-parametric Gravity Model for Bilateral Trade: Debt Crisis Effect, Case III, (6 knots) Parametric Estimates for the Gravity Model (Part A) Variable (log) Coefficient t statistics Pr > |t| lgdpe 1.
6. Conclusion In this paper the relationships between bilateral trade and sovereign debt (leverage) crisis for six selected EU countries have been investigated by specifying a semi-parametric gravity model over 1995-2013."