چکیده:
This paper tries to analyze the impacts of intermediate goods trade on production, consumption, investment, net exports, employment, labor wage and capital rent of Iran in its bilateral trade relations with China. This analysis has been done by modeling, solving and calibrating an international real business cycles (IRBC) model in period 1980-2009. The results show that when elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods is low, increasing the share of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China increases volatility of Iran’s macroeconomic variables. The value of an increase in volatility of Iran’s macroeconomic variables depends on elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods, when the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods is low, an increase in the share of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China leads to a further increase in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. These results indicate that imports of intermediate goods are an important path through for transmission of shocks between main bilateral trade partners.
خلاصه ماشینی:
com Abstract This paper tries to analyze the impacts of intermediate goods trade onproduction, consumption, investment, net exports, employment, labor wage and capital rent of Iran in its bilateral trade relations with China.
Introduction Given the stronger growth in trade relative to production after 1950s, the share of imported intermediate goods in total inputs increased strikingly over this time period.
The model is thus solved through each of these scenarios regarding different share values of Iran’s intermediate goods imports from China.
The volatility of simulated variables is calculated in three scenarios by six values for the share of Iran’s intermediate goods imports from China.
In Figure 1, histograms indicate the simulated status of the standard deviations of the production data through which the share of Iran’s intermediate goods imports increases from 3% to 18%, while the trend lines (indicating the general trend) is almost constant in the first scenario (e = 0.
Also, Figure 5 shows that, based on the share increasing of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China, the line of standard deviation trend of simulated employment has zero slope in the first scenario (e = 0.
95) Share of Iran's Imporetd Intermediate Goods from China (Percent) Figure 1: Standard Deviation of Simulated Production Data for Different e: Authors.
Zorell (2008) has achieved same results for increasing macroeconomic variables volatility including production, consumption, investment, employment and wage after increasing share of imported intermediate goods.
In order to analyzing intermediate goods trade on macroeconomics variables volatility, research model has been solved for different share of Iran’s intermediate goods imports from China.