چکیده:
Since the Islamic Revolution of 1987، Iran has been affected by economic sanctions imposed by Western countries، especially the U.S. Since 2006 and with the development of the Iranian nuclear conflict، the United Nations has frequently imposed economic and financial sanctions against Iran. As a result of these international restrictions and their administration by an international organization، iran's exports has been heavily influenced. This study seeks to address the question whether the economic sanctions imposed against Iran’s exports have been effective. And if yes، and if yes، to what extent this effectiveness، is. Due to the fact that the sanctions imposed on Iran have been at first less economic and they have intensified over time، the effect of the sanctions in the three years of 2012، 2013، and 2014 have been examined by the fixed-effects Gravity model extracted from the model of Anderson and van Wincoop. In addition، all the trade relations and models considered have been estimated through the PPML method to estimate the unbiased coefficients in order to use all the data and to avoid the problem of zeros. Based on our results، the sanctions imposed against Iran have had a significant and negative effect on the amount of export in Iran to all its trading partners considered in all the given years. The examination of the coefficients during the years 2012، 2013، and 2014 show that Iran's value of export has fallen annually by 33 percent in average and the total loss for these three years has been 104 billion dollars.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The Effect of Economic Sanctions on Iran's Export Homayoun Shirazi1, Karim Azarbaiejani2 and Morteza Sameti3 Received: 2015/10/03 Accepted: 2016/04/17 Abstract ince the Islamic Revolution of 1987, Iran has been affected byeconomic sanctions imposed by Western countries, especially theU.
Due to the fact that the sanctions imposed on Iran havebeen at first less economic and they have intensified over time, the effect of the sanctions in the three years of 2012, 2013, and 2014 have been examined by the fixed-effects Gravity model extracted from the model of Anderson and van Wincoop.
Based on our results, the sanctions imposed against Iran have had a significant and negative effect on the amount of export in Iran to all its trading partners considered in all the given years.
Using a gravity model and taking 30 trading partners into account, Bigdeli, Gholami, and Boldaji (2013) estimated the effects of economic sanctions imposed on Iran in the time period from 1973 to 2007.
According to the results obtained from the estimation of the gravity model and the PPML method, sanctions imposed against Iran in all the given years have left a negative effect on exports.
The estimated coefficients of the gravity model 2012 2013 2014 Variable Coefficient Standard Coefficient Standard Coefficient Standard Significant at the level of 95 percent Source: Research findings Conclusion The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of economic sanctions on Iran’s exports.
According to the results, the sanctions imposed against Iran have had a significant and negative effect on the amount of exports in Iran and all the countries considered in all the given years.