Simulation of rice production under climate change scenarios in the Southern coasts of Caspian Sea مقاله

نویسنده: Mohammadi، H ؛ Azizi، Gh ؛ Mazaheri، D ؛ Rabbani، F ؛

DESERT Autumn 2015, Volume 20 - Number 2 ، علمی-پژوهشی (وزارت علوم (‎10 صفحه - از 197 تا 206 )

کلیدواژه ها: Rasht Climate Change CERES Rice model ECHAM5 Southern Coast of Caspian Sea

چکیده:

Climate change has direct and indirect consequences on crop production and food security. Agriculture and crop production is one of the factors which depend on the weather conditions and it provides the human requirements in many aspects. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climatic change on irrigated rice yield using the CERES-Rice model in the Southern Coast of Caspian Sea under three climate change scenarios of Sra1b, Sra2 and Srb1. Required data for this research includes the meteorological, soil and crop management data. The meteorological data include the daily data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, solar radiation and precipitation during 1981-2010 and Global Climate Models (HADCM3, ECHAM5, IPCM4, GFCM2, NCCCSM and INCM3) during 1971-2000. Soil and product management data provided from field experiment was conducted from 2008 to 2009 at the Rice Research Institute in Rasht. Validating of Global Climate Models show that ECHAM5 climate model has the highest correlation with the lowest error to simulate the future temperature and precipitation. We used ECHAM5 climate model coupled with a crop growth model for simulating of the effects of climate change on rice protection. The results of prediction of climate change scenarios show that minimum and maximum temperature will be ascending and precipitation will be decreasing in the Rasht station. Results of simulated yield and biomass of the rice crop base on scenarios of Sra1b, Sra2 and Srb1 show that rice crop yield and biomass decrease with increasing of mean temperature and decreasing of precipitation.

خلاصه ماشینی:

"The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climatic change on irrigated rice yield using the CERES-Rice model in the Southern Coast of Caspian Sea under three climate change scenarios of Sra1b, Sra2 and Srb1. 1. Study area The Rasht station is selected as the rice cultivation center in the southern coasts of Caspian Sea with long-time weather data, to simulate the effects of climate change on rice yield in this study. Required meteorological data include the collection of daily data of Rasht stations (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, solar radiation and precipitation) during 1981- 2010 and Global Climate Models (HADCM3, ECHAM5, IPCM4, GFCM2, NCCCSM and INCM3) during 1971-2000 period. In evaluating the accuracy of the atmosphere general circulation models in production of future weather data, we validated six global climate models using the absolute root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) between the simulated and observed data. Estimating Rice Yield and Biomass Under Climate Change Scenarios It can be concluded that the Lars-WG model has good performance in the Rasht stations in generating daily minimum and maximum air temperature and daily precipitation. Simulation of rice yield and Biomass under three scenarios of Sra1b, Sra2 and Srb1in the Rasht station for 2011-2032 and 2046-2065 as compared with observed data The time of transplants and harvest will shift to winter season Because of increasing of minimum temperature."

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