چکیده:
in order to have a successful regional planning policy, one needs to know exactly the effective factors on the growth of the provinces. Thus, determining and evaluating these growth rates are important for urban and regional planners. The main goal of this study is to determine the effective factors on the growth (population growth and per capita income growth) of Iran’s provinces. In this regard, three groups of factors, economic, social and locational, were considered. The population growth and per capita income growth models were considered via spatial panel for the period of 2007-2015. We have also studied the spatial dependence as well as spatial spillovers between the provinces on regional growth. The results show that there have been meaningful growth spillovers between the provinces of Iran. Therefore, any change in one province, besides having its effect on that province also has spillover effects on neighboring provinces. Also the results show that real per capita income, transportation infrastructure, the index of service specialization, the index of production specialization and the index of competitiveness are the most important factors on the growth of the provinces of Iran.
خلاصه ماشینی:
<H1>Effective Factors on the Growth of Provinces of Iran: A Spatial Panel Approach</H1> Mansour Khalili Araghi1, Elham Nobahar*2, Mahboobeh Kabiri Renani3 Received: March 7, 2016 Accepted: June 20, 2017 Abstract n order to have a successful regional planning policy, one needs to know exactly the effective factors on the growth of the provinces.
Considering the uniqueness of the factors affecting regional growth and lack of focus on finding the effective factors influencing population growth in Iran's provinces, it seems essential to carry out a study in this area.
This study consists of 7 sections including introduction, theoretical foundations of regional growth, literature review, spatial panel econometrics, statistical data and modeling, and model estimation and results.
In this study, the initial size of the city, livelihood conditions, industrial concentration and spatial elements were recognized as the most important factors affecting population growth in this province.
According to table (3) and results of Moran’s I, LR and LM tests, it is confirmed that there is a spatial dependence in the growth model of Iran's provinces at a significance level of 5%.
This shows the spatial spillover effects of that variable on population (income) growth of other provinces.
Among the social variables, the fertility rate and among the economic variables, real per capita income, unemployment rate, transport infrastructure, industrial structure, index of service specialization, production specialization index and competition index are identified as the important factors affecting population growth of Iran's provinces.