چکیده:
This paper initially attempts to demonstrate that Iranian society has constantly attempted to
democratize the authoritarian regime, but it usually fails in the transition stage. I have
shown that the democratization process in Iran has often resulted in the creation of a newly
shaped authoritarian structure rather than an institutionalized democratic regime.
Meanwhile, I have argued that the democratic process has not been interrupted and some of
the minimum criteria of the transition process, such as the politics of periodic elections,
have been realized in Iran. In this study, the democratic transition has been explained
through socioeconomic development. The data for this paper consist of forty-two cases of
parliamentary and presidential elections. The hypothesis is evaluated using regression
analysis technique. The empirical findings indicate that the proportion of the total variance
of democratic transition which is explained by the socioeconomic development is 0.56
percent. This relation is positive and is statistically significant at .05 level.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The Socio-economic Prerequisites of Democratic Transition; Case Study: Iran Ali Saei - Assistant Professor of Political Sociology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran Received: 28/05/2017 Accepted: 19/11/2017 Abstract This paper initially attempts to demonstrate that Iranian society has constantly attempted to democratize the authoritarian regime, but it usually fails in the transition stage.
The empirical findings indicate that the proportion of the total variance of democratic transition which is explained by the socioeconomic development is 0.
On the basis of the above discussion, the following research question is developed: “How can variation of the democratic transition be explained in Iran from 1909 to 2013”?
The increase in socio-economic development stimulates the development of a new social class and intellectuals, who challenge the established social groups, demand civil rights and attempt to participate in political decision-making processes(see Diamond, 1999; Lipset ,1994,1959, ;Gill, 2000; 1994; Putnam, 1993; Huntington, 1995; Vanhanen, 2003; 1997; 1993; 1990; Inglehart et al, 2005).
On the basis of this theory, the logical structure of theoretical apparatus has been formulated as follows: Socio-economic development democratization As already discussed, this paper focuses on the transition stage, one of the three- phases of the democratization process, in Iran.
Table below shows the results of simple linear regression of the economic development variable on democratic transition, and its components: Electoral Participation and competition.
The findings indicate that there is a positive relationship between the level of socio economic development and democratic transition.
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