چکیده:
امروزه تمرکز و تراکم بیش‌ازحد، عدم رعایت استانداردها و سازگاری‌ها در جانمایی کاربری‌های خطرآفرین و دسترسی متوازن به مراکز امداد و نجات و عدم وجود ساختار مدیریت بحران متمرکز، شهر اردبیل را در معرض تهدیدات و آسیب‌های فراوانی قرار داده است. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع، هدف از تحقیق حاضر، ارائه‌ی راهبردهای مناسب در مدیریت بحران شهر اردبیل با رویکرد پدافند غیرعامل جهت کمک به مدیران و برنامه‌ریزان، در پیشگیری و پایش بحران است. روش تحقیق در مطالعه‌ی حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت و روش توصیفی - تحلیلی بوده که برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از روش اسنادی و میدانی (پیمایشی) استفاده شده است. جامعه‌ی آماری تحقیق، شامل نخبگان، کارشناسان، مسئولان و مدیران شهری می‌باشد که حجم نمونه 200 نفر بر اساس روش گلوله‌برفی انتخاب شده است. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌های تحقیق نیز انواع آزمون‌های فریدمن و تی تک نمونه‌ای در نرم‌افزار SPSS و همچنین مدل معادلات ساختاری در نرم‌افزار Amos به‌کار برده شده‌اند. یافته‌های تحقیق حاکی از آن است که مدیریت بحران بر اساس اصول پدافند غیرعامل در شهر اردبیل، به‌ویژه از منظر مدیریت مبتنی بر پیشگیری دارای وضعیت مطلوبی نمی‌باشد. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد، مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر بر ارتقاء عملکرد برنامه‌ریزی مدیریت بحران در حوزه‌ی مدیریت شهری در راستای پدافند غیرعامل شهر اردبیل مربوط به مؤلفه‌های آموزش و پژوهش در راستای شناخت بحران‌ها و یادگیری جهت اجتناب از ایجاد ساختارها و فرایندهای مؤثر در ایجاد بحران، ایجاد ارتباطات میان‌سازمانی به‌منظور مشارکت حداکثریِ سازمان‌های مرتبط در فاز پیشگیری، سرمایه‌گذاری بر روی ساختارهای اطلاعاتی و ارتباطاتی جهت تسریع در فرایند آمادگی در برابر بحران‌ها، تشکیل سیستم‌های پشتیبان تصمیم‌گیری و هدایت‌کننده برای ارائه‌ی راهبردهای آمادگی در برابر بحران و تشکیل ساختار برنامه‌ریزی مبتنی بر ارزیابی حجم حادثه به‌منظور برآورد نیازها به ترتیب با ارزش 0/91، 0/89، 0/85 و 0/81 می‌باشند.
According to subject importance, the aim of current study is presenting proper guideline in Ardebil city critical management with passive defense survey to help managers, policy makers about prevention and critical searching. Current study methodology is applied according to aim and it is analytical-descriptive according to nature and also documentary and field (measurement) methods were used to data gathering. Study statistical society include elites, experts, urban charges and managers and sample size was selected with snowball method and it is 200 persons. In order to study data analysis; Friedman’s, single – t tests were used in SPSS Software and also we have been applied structural equations model in framework of Amos Software. The findings of the study indicate that crisis management based on passive defense principles in Ardebil city, especially from the perspective of preventive management is not favorable. also results show, the most important and effective factors for critical management planning performance promotion in urban management along Ardebil city passive defense relate to training and searching of criticisms recognition and learning subjects to avoid creating effective processes and structures in criticism, creating intra-organizational communication to participate maximum organizations in prevention phase, investment on information and communication structures to facilitate on readiness process against criticism, generating decision supporting and guided systems against criticisms and creating planning structure based on accident volume evaluation to estimate requirements which they have 0/91, 0/89, 0/85, 0/81 value respectively. Extended Abstract Introduction Considering that cities because of their vast geographical area and the role and importance of the center of gravity, facilities and manpower at the forefront of threats (natural, industrial and man-made) and In some cases act synergistically; Proper planning can play a key role in managing risk and reducing the city's vulnerability to accidents; Therefore, understanding the effective factors in reducing immunity requires prevention, preparation and protection of the human environment against any kind of crisis that urban planners and managers should pay more attention to. On the other hand, the realization of passive defense requirements in the field of crisis management should be taken into account in accordance with the needs of contemporary times as well as the future of crises. As the evolution of crisis management has evolved over time, given the variety of crises and the increasing spread of science and technology from the traditional to the modern and the modern, it has now reached the knowledge-based crisis management station. Therefore, as crises become more complex, managing them requires a complex and coherent mix of natural and human systems. This increase in complexity requires higher levels of focus, resources, coordination, and managerial accountability. Ardebil, as the largest population and population density of Ardebil province, has the largest amount of manpower, investment, economic and infrastructure projects. And because of its over-focusing, irregular location of hazardous land uses and a variety of structural and management problems, especially in the area of knowledge and information management and the application of science and technology in the area of crisis management, it has exposed the city to many threats and damages which can cause serious problems for citizens in times of crisis; therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate measures in the form of urban management plans in accordance with the principles and principles of passive defense. Methodology Current study methodology is applied according to aim and it is analytical-descriptive according to nature and also documentary and field (measurement) methods were used to data gathering. Study statistical society include elites, experts, urban charges and managers and sample size was selected with snowball method and it is 200 persons. In order to study data analysis; Friedman’s, single – t tests were used in SPSS Software and also we have been applied structural equations model in framework of Amos Software. In this research, in order to measure internal validity, content validity method was first used to increase the validity of the questionnaire. Also for analyzing the validity of the questionnaire questions and assessing the level of relevance of the analysis tool in the present study, the alpha coefficients of reliability analysis of all questions were calculated. Results and discussion The results indicate that among the variables studied the most achievable in passive crisis management requirements related to variables facilitating the use of regional and trans-regional assistance; attention to indigenous-local approaches and culture in all phases of reconstruction and empowerment; and formation The planning structure based on incident volume assessment for estimating needs is 3.97, 3.71 and 3.41 respectively and the average Friedman average was 14.90, 13.64, and 12.22, respectively. On the other hand, the least achievable relevance to the variables of enhancing collective diplomacy is to engage with relevant institutions in the face of crisis; to utilize new and up-to-date knowledge and technology to use efficient tools in the field of preparedness; Correlated in the crisis prevention and effects phase were the numerical mean values of 2.58, 2.59, and 2.61, respectively, and the Friedman rank average of 8.87, 8.84, and 8.45, respectively. Also results show, the most important and effective factors for critical management planning performance promotion in urban management along Ardebil city passive defense relate to training and searching of criticisms recognition and learning subjects to avoid creating effective processes and structures in criticism, creating intra-organizational communication to participate maximum organizations in prevention phase, investment on information and communication structures to facilitate on readiness process against criticism, generating decision supporting and guided systems against criticisms and creating planning structure based on accident volume evaluation to estimate requirements which they have 0/91, 0/89, 0/85, 0/81 value respectively. Conclusion Todey, emphasis on new approaches in the field of urban crisis management such as favorable urban governance and knowledge management is one of the essential requirements of passive urban defense planning. Due to the importance of the subject under study, the main purpose of this study is to evaluate the requirements of passive defense in planning of crisis management in Ardabil urban management. The findings of the study indicate that crisis management based on passive defense principles in Ardebil city, especially from the perspective of preventive management is not favorable. Among the major weaknesses of Ardebil city crisis management are the lack of strengthening of collective diplomacy to engage with relevant institutions in the face of crisis; lack of up-to-date knowledge and technology to use efficient tools in the field of preparedness; Interagency communications point to the maximum involvement of relevant organizations in the prevention and impact phase of crises. The results also show that in order to improve the situation of urban crisis management in Ardebil in terms of passive defense planning for the city is felt appropriate planning in the components of prevention-based management, preparedness-based management, management-based rehabilitation and empowerment-based management, as well as their sub-components, respectively, training and research in identifying crises and learning to avoid creating effective and effective structures and processes. Creating a crisis, establishing inter-organizational communications to maximize the involvement of relevant organizations in the crisis prevention and impact phase, investing in information and communication structures to accelerate the disaster preparedness process, establishing decision support systems and guidance. Iterator for presenting crisis preparedness strategies and forming a planning structure based on incident volume assessment to assess needs. Key words: Passive defense, Crisis management, urban management, Structural equations model, Ardebil.
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