چکیده:
مناطق مرزی جزو مناطق حساس و شکنندة هر کشوری محسوب می شوند که به دلیل شرایط منحصربه فردی همچون دوری از مرکز و انزواگرایی با معضلاتی از جمله بیکاری و عدم اشتغال و عدم دسترسی به تأمین نیازهای اولیه روبه رو هستند. معضلات مرتبط با اقتصاد سبب شده است تا در مناطق غربی کشور، بهویژه در روستاهای مرزی پاوه، وضعیتی پدید آید که بخش زیادی از مردم در این منطقه برای برطرفکردن نیازهای اصلی زندگی خود به شغل کولبری روی آورند. هدف از این مقاله بررسی عوامل موثر بر استمرار کولبری در روستاهای مرزی پاوه است که با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و بهرهگیری از روش سناریونویسی به این موضوع پرداخته شده است. نتایج بهدستآمده از نرمافزار سناریو ویزارد نشان میدهد که از این 45 وضعیت احتمالی، 26.6 درصد وضعیت بحرانی، 17.8 درصد در آستانة بحران، 26.6 درصد وضعیت ایستا، 13.4 درصد وضعیت نیمهمطلوب، و 15.6 درصد نیز وضعیت مطلوب دارند. درمجموع، 29 درصد وضعیت مطلوب و 44.4 درصد نیز وضعیت نامطلوب داشتهاند. از 14 سناریوی محتمل، سناریوهای 1 و 2 دارای وضعیت مطلوب و سناریوهای 5، 6، 7، 12، 13، و 14 دارای وضعیت نامطلوب بودهاند. سناریوهای 11، 10، 9، 8، 4، و 3 نیز دارای وضعیت بینابینی بودهاند و از ترکیب حالتهای مختلف بهوجود آمدهاند. در نهایت، میتوان بیان کرد که شرایط برای استمرار کولبری در منطقة بحرانی محسوب میشود و این امر نیازمند تدوین سیاستهای مناسب با موقعیت منطقه برای بهبود شرایط معیشتی و زندگی ساکنان نواحی مرزی است.
Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptive-analytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related to seven key factors. It is expected that more than 720,000 possible consolidation scenarios will be extracted from these possible situations, which will include all the situations ahead of Colbury's future in the border village of Paveh. The results of the Wizard scenario software show that there are 14 scenarios with strong and probable compatibility, 2906 scenarios with poor compatibility, and 691 incompatible scenarios for the future of Colbury's economy. Of these 45 possible situations, 26.6% are in critical condition, 17.8% are on the verge of crisis, 26.6% are in static status, 13.4% are in semi-optimal condition and 15.6% are in optimal condition. In total, 29% were in good condition and 44.4% were in poor condition. Of the 14 possible scenarios, scenarios 1 and 2 have the desired status, scenarios 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, and14 have the unfavorable situation. Scenarios 11, 10, 9, 8, 4, 3 also had an intermediate status and were created by combining different modes.Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptive-analytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related to seven key factors. It is expected that more than 720,000 possible consolidation scenarios will be extracted from these possible situations, which will include all the situations ahead of Colbury's future in the border village of Paveh. The results of the Wizard scenario software show that there are 14 scenarios with strong and probable compatibility, 2906 scenarios with poor compatibility, and 691 incompatible scenarios for the future of Colbury's economy. Of these 45 possible situations, 26.6% are in critical condition, 17.8% are on the verge of crisis, 26.6% are in static status, 13.4% are in semi-optimal condition and 15.6% are in optimal condition. In total, 29% were in good condition and 44.4% were in poor condition. Of the 14 possible scenarios, scenarios 1 and 2 have the desired status, scenarios 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, and14 have the unfavorable situation. Scenarios 11, 10, 9, 8, 4, 3 also had an intermediate status and were created by combining different modes.Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptive-analytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related to seven key factors. It is expected that more than 720,000 possible consolidation scenarios will be extracted from these possible situations, which will include all the situations ahead of Colbury's future in the border village of Paveh. The results of the Wizard scenario software show that there are 14 scenarios with strong and probable compatibility, 2906 scenarios with poor compatibility, and 691 incompatible scenarios for the future of Colbury's economy. Of these 45 possible situations, 26.6% are in critical condition, 17.8% are on the verge of crisis, 26.6% are in static status, 13.4% are in semi-optimal condition and 15.6% are in optimal condition. In total, 29% were in good condition and 44.4% were in poor condition. Of the 14 possible scenarios, scenarios 1 and 2 have the desired status, scenarios 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, and14 have the unfavorable situation. Scenarios 11, 10, 9, 8, 4, 3 also had an intermediate status and were created by combining different modes.Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptive-analytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related
خلاصه ماشینی:
مهم ترين دليلي که مردمان مناطق غربي کشور اين سبک از زندگي را انتخاب کرده اند و در بيشتر موارد نيز با خطرهاي جاني روبه رو ميشوند طولانيبودن مرزها و تعدد همسايگان ، مرزهاي تحميلي که سبب تداخل قوميت هاي مذهبي و فرهنگي با کشورهاي هم جوار شده است ، توسعه نيافتگي مناطق پيراموني و مرزي، و همچنين وجود فقر مطلق در ميان مردمان مرزنشين ، اختلافات زيست محيطي گسترده ، موقعيت ويژة اين مناطق مرزي، روند تغييرات نهادهاي حکومتي و دولتي در نواحي مرزي، جهانيشدن و تحولات در کارکرد مرزها، عدم استراتژي منسجم در مديريت و نظارت و پايش مناطق مرزي و ...
سؤال اصلي تحقيق بدين صورت مطرح ميشود که عوامل مؤثر بر استمرار کولبري در روستاهاي مرزي پاوه کدام ها هستند و استراتژيهاي مناسب براي منطقه چگونه با استفاده از رويکرد آينده نگري تدوين مي شود؟ پيشينۀتحقيق قادرزاده و همکاران (١٣٩٠) در مقاله اي بيان ميکنند برساخت پديدة تجارت مرزي يکي از عوامل اصلي و مهم در واکنش به شرايط توسعه نيافتگي در مناطق مرزي است و ميتوان آن را در بعد بسترها، تعاملات ، و پيامدها مشاهده کرد.
Anabestani, A and Tayebnama, H and Shayan, H and Rezvani, MR (2014): Analysis of barriers to diversification of economic activities in border villages of Marivan city, Quarterly Journal of Space Economics and Rural Development, Year 3, Issue 4, Winter, Consecutive 10.
Mossavi, M and Kahaki, F and Taghillo, A and Ghaderi, R (2018): Development of feasible scenarios for land management (Case study: Khorasan Razavi province); Quarterly Journal of Land Management, Volume 10, Number 1, pp.