چکیده:
توفان های تندری یکی از مخرب ترین پدیده های جوی می باشد که هر ساله در نقاط مختلف کشور بخصوص در منطقه جنوب غرب کشور رخ می-دهد. اثرات این توفان ها که به صورت تگرگ، بارش های سیل آسا، بادهای شدید، رعد وبرق نمایان می شود علاوه بر تامین منابع آبی منجر به خسارات جانی و مالی جبران ناپذیری می گردد. به همین منظور آگاهی و شناخت توفان های تندری بخصوص منطقه جنوب غرب کشور مستلزم درک صحیح از توزیع سامانه های آب وهواشناسی و سازوکارهای فیزیکی مسیول بر رخداد این توفان ها است. در این پژوهش ابتدا جهت انتخاب کد پدیده توفان تندری و انجام تحلیل خوشه ای از داده های ایستگاه های سینوپتیک، داده های جو بالا و برای مدل سازی روزهای منتخب با مدل WRF از داده های FNL با تفکیک 1×1 درجه با دوره 24 ساعته استفاده شده است. با استفاده از روش خوشه بندی 3 رخداد توفان تندری به عنوان نماینده انتخاب و با استقاده از مدل WRF مدل سازی برای روزهای منتخب با طرحواره های مختلف انجام گرفت. نتایج اعتبارسنجی مدل نشان داد که به ترتیب پیکربندی کومولوس، لایه مرزی، لایه سطحی و سطح زمین براساس هر سه آزمون آماری دارای کمترین میزان خطا جهت شبیه سازی پارامترهای بارش، دما و باد است. جهت شبیه سازی پارامترهای مذکور طرحواره های کومولوس، لایه مرزی، لایه سطحی و سطح زمین (خاک) مهمترین طرحواره ها می باشند که محتمل ترین حالات این طرحوارها جهت اجرای مدل در نظر گرفته شده است. نتایج مدل سازی نشان داد که در روزهای نماینده وضعیت شاخص های CAPE، CIN، LCL، LFC در ایستگاه های که توفان تندری رخ داده است، مناسب می باشد. نقشه های بارش خروجی مدل نشان دهنده آن است که در منطقه مورد مطالعه بارش اتفاق افتاده است اما در همه ایستگاه ها توفان تندری رخ نداده است و فقط در چند ایستگاه توفان تندری ثبت شده است.
Thunderstorms are one of the most destructive atmospheric phenomena that occur every year in different parts of the country, especially in the southwestern region of the country.The effects of these storms, which are manifested in the form of hail, torrential rains, strong winds, thunderstorms, in addition to providing water resources, lead to irreparable human and financial losses.Therefore, awareness and knowledge of thunderstorms, especially in the southwestern region of the country requires a correct understanding of the distribution of meteorological systems and physical mechanisms responsible for the occurrence of these storms. In this research, first to select the code of thunderstorm phenomenon and perform a cluster analysis is used of synoptic station data, high atmosphere data and to modeling selected days with WRF from FNL data with 1*1 degree separation with A 24-hour period .Using clustering method 3, Thunderstorm events were selected as representative and using WRF model, modeling was performed for selected days with different schemas. The modeling results showed that in the representative days, the status of CAPE, CIN, LCL, LFC indices in the stations where the thunderstorm occurred was appropriate. The model output precipitation maps show that precipitation occurred in the study area, but no thunderstorms occurred at all stations, and only a few thunderstorms were recorded. The modeling results showed that in the representative days, the status of CAPE, CIN, LCL, LFC indices in the stations where the thunderstorm occurred was appropriate. The model output precipitation maps show that precipitation occurred in the study area, but no thunderstorms occurred at all stations, and only a few thunderstorms were recorded. On a global scale, thunderstorms are a phenomenon that is recorded in almost all parts of the world and its occurrence in hot seasons is much higher than cold seasons. The diversity of climatic conditions and geographical features of Iran has caused the phenomenon of thunderstorms to be reported in different parts of it every year. Modeling is one of the methods of studying thunderstorms. The motivation for paying attention to numerical models of the atmosphere is the very poor resolution of planetary climate models in relation to local and regional climatic processes. Numerical atmospheric models have been developed to improve spatial detail and attention to regional and local variations.One of the most important models is the WRF numerical prediction model. The WRF Climate Prediction Model is a mid-scale numerical model that is widely used by researchers today for local-scale weather forecasting, air quality studies, and regional climate research.Statistical calculations and graphs show that the occurrence of this phenomenon in the region depends on the arrival of synoptic and out-of-region systems and convection. In proportion to the seasons, if large-scale and synoptic systems penetrate to low latitudes and affect the atmosphere of the region, the probability of hurricane occurrence also increases. In contrast, with the gradual warming of the air and stabilization of the atmosphere, the occurrence of this phenomenon is reduced. It reaches zero.The results of validation showed that configurations 8, 1 and 2 (Table 1) based on all three statistical tests have the lowest error rate to simulate precipitation, temperature and wind parameters, respectively. In fact, in order to simulate the mentioned parameters, cumulus, boundary layer, surface layer and ground (soil) schemas are the most important schemas that the most probable states of these schemas are considered for model implementation.The output of the WRF model for modeling three-day hurricanes shows that in these days the conditions of the studied indicators in some southwestern regions are quite suitable for the occurrence of thunderstorms and in accordance with rainfall maps and station observations in these parts rain and storm Thunder has occurred which can be a testament to the accuracy of the model results. Finally, it can be concluded that the results of modeling thunderstorms with the WRF model are satisfactory and can be used to model this phenomenon.The output of the WRF model for modeling three-day hurricanes shows that in these days the conditions of the studied indicators in some southwestern regions are quite suitable for the occurrence of thunderstorms and in accordance with rainfall maps and station observations in these parts rain and storm Thunder has occurred which can be a testament to the accuracy of the model results. Finally, it can be concluded that the results of modeling thunderstorms with the WRF model are satisfactory and can be used to model this phenomenon.
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