چکیده:
در این پژوهش ضمن ارزیابی چالشهای ارتقاء حکمروایی شهری در شهر متوسط اندام میانه با رویکرد آیندهپژوهی، عوامل کلیدی و ارتباطات بین آنها تجزیه و تحلیل و رتبهبندی شده است. بر این مبنا پژوهش حاظر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نظر روششناخی توصیفی ـ تحلیلی است. در بخش نخست با مرور مبانی و استخراج مهمترین عوامل کلیدی حکمروایی شهری با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی و نظرخواهی از 30 کارشناس، شاخصهای اجماع و قطعیت، اولویت و اهمیت به ارزیابی 43 پیشران کلیدی در نرمافزار Micmac پرداخته شد. که نتایج نشان میدهد که از بین ۸ عامل اصلی، مشارکت، پاسخگویی، عدالت و قانونمندی اثرگذارترین ابعاد بر روند توسعه شهری میانه بودهاند. از میان 10 پیشران کلیدی و مهم متغیرهای نقش موثر اعمال تصمیمات شهروندان در تهیه طرحهای توسعه شهری و پاسخگویی مدیران و مسئولان شهری به شهروندان به عنوان متغیرهای دو وجهی و تاثیرگذار دارای بیشترین اهمیت بودهاند. آنچه از وضعیت صفحه پراکندگی متغیرهای مؤثر بر وضعیت آینده تحولات و چالشهای حکمروایی شهر میانه مشخص است، وضعیت ناپایدار سیستم است. بیشتر متغیرها در اطراف محور قطری صفحه پراکندهاند. به جز چند عامل که نشان دهنده تاثیرات بالا هستند، بقیه متغیرها وضعیت مشابهی دارند. نتایج تأیید کننده این نکته است که عوامل مشارکت، پاسخگویی، عدالت و قانونمندی حکمروایی شهری اثرگذار بر روند تحولات شهر میانه ناپایدار و به گونهای است که تداوم وضع موجود به شکلگیری سناریو فاجعه خواهد انجامید و در بهترین حالت، در صورت ادامه وضع موجود، تغییرات سیستم حکمروایی به موازی کاری و عدم وجود برنامه منظم و منسجم و فقدان هماهنگی بین سازمانی، کاهش سطح توانمندی اجتماعی، عدم تقویت اقتصاد محلی و کاهش نقش مشارکتی شهروندان، کاهش سطح سرمایهگذاریهای بخش خصوصی و کاهش نظارت کالبدی بر فضاهای ساخته شده مرتبط با کنترل انواع چالشهای فزآینده شهری منجر خواهد شد.
The planning processes that city managers guide in the context of governance in the face of urban development challenges ensure transparency and accountability mechanisms. However, this can only be achieved if officials and citizens are able to use these mechanisms effectively and efficiently. In this study, while evaluating the challenges of promoting urban governance in the middle middle city with a future research approach, key factors and the relationships between them have been analyzed and ranked. Based on this, the present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology. In the first part, by reviewing the basics and extracting the most important key factors of urban governance, using the Delphi technique and consulting 30 experts, the indicators of consensus and certainty, priority and importance were evaluated. By determining the key factors and word parameters, a total of 43 key drivers for Word were prepared in Micmac software. Of the 1806 values calculated in the initial crossover matrix, 701 were highly impacted, 848 were moderately impacted, 257 were low-impact, and 43 were highly impacted. Assessing the status of impact and effectiveness of key factors shows that among the eight main factors, participation, accountability, justice and regularity have been the most influential dimensions on the process of middle urban development. Also, among the 10 key and important drivers of variables, the effective role of implementing citizens' decisions in preparing urban development plans and the accountability of city managers and officials to citizens as two-dimensional and effective variables have been the most important.The planning processes that city managers guide in the context of governance in the face of urban development challenges ensure transparency and accountability mechanisms. However, this can only be achieved if officials and citizens are able to use these mechanisms effectively and efficiently. In this study, while evaluating the challenges of promoting urban governance in the middle middle city with a future research approach, key factors and the relationships between them have been analyzed and ranked. Based on this, the present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology. In the first part, by reviewing the basics and extracting the most important key factors of urban governance, using the Delphi technique and consulting 30 experts, the indicators of consensus and certainty, priority and importance were evaluated. By determining the key factors and word parameters, a total of 43 key drivers for Word were prepared in Micmac software. Of the 1806 values calculated in the initial crossover matrix, 701 were highly impacted, 848 were moderately impacted, 257 were low-impact, and 43 were highly impacted. Assessing the status of impact and effectiveness of key factors shows that among the eight main factors, participation, accountability, justice and regularity have been the most influential dimensions on the process of middle urban development. Also, among the 10 key and important drivers of variables, the effective role of implementing citizens' decisions in preparing urban development plans and the accountability of city managers and officials to citizens as two-dimensional and effective variables have been the most important.The planning processes that city managers guide in the context of governance in the face of urban development challenges ensure transparency and accountability mechanisms. However, this can only be achieved if officials and citizens are able to use these mechanisms effectively and efficiently. In this study, while evaluating the challenges of promoting urban governance in the middle middle city with a future research approach, key factors and the relationships between them have been analyzed and ranked. Based on this, the present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology. In the first part, by reviewing the basics and extracting the most important key factors of urban governance, using the Delphi technique and consulting 30 experts, the indicators of consensus and certainty, priority and importance were evaluated. By determining the key factors and word parameters, a total of 43 key drivers for Word were prepared in Micmac software. Of the 1806 values calculated in the initial crossover matrix, 701 were highly impacted, 848 were moderately impacted, 257 were low-impact, and 43 were highly impacted. Assessing the status of impact and effectiveness of key factors shows that among the eight main factors, participation, accountability, justice and regularity have been the most influential dimensions on the process of middle urban development. Also, among the 10 key and important drivers of variables, the effective role of implementing citizens' decisions in preparing urban development plans and the accountability of city managers and officials to citizens as two-dimensional and effective variables have been the most important.