چکیده:
تخلیه آثار ناترازی بودجه دولت و نظام بانکی در نقدینگی از یک سو و مقوله گذار نرخ ارز از سویی دیگر، ترجیع بند مطالعات مربوط به تورم در اقتصاد ایران هستند. با وجود این، پویایی‌ها و شدت و ضعف آثار متغیرهای مذکور محل مناقشه است. به طوری که به علت لکنت روش‌های سنتی اقتصادسنجی در بیان ابعاد رابطه‌ی میان متغیرهای مذکور فاصله زیادی برای رسیدن به اجماع نظر در پیش است. از این رو، تحقیق حاضر می‌کوشد با به کارگیری تبدیل موجک پیوسته و گام برداشتن در این مسیر بینش جدیدی در حوزه‌ی بلافصل سیاست پولی ایجاد کند. برای این منظور، از داده‌های فصلی مربوط به دوره‌ی زمانی 1401:02–1369:02 و ابزار همدوسی چندگانه، همدوسی جزئی، اختلاف فاز جزئی و بهره موجک جزئی استفاده شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که رشد نرخ ارز اثرگذاری باثباتی بر تورم دارد. رابطه‌ی میان رشد نقدینگی و تورم از نظر جریان، جهت و شدت علّیت ناپایدار می‌باشد. به طوری که رشد نقدینگی در سال‌های میانی دهه‌های 1370، 1380 و 1390 از تورم پیروی کرده است. مادامی که هر دو متغیر بر تورم اثرگذاری معنی‌دار داشته‌اند، شدت اثر رشد نقدینگی نسبتاً بیش‌تر گزارش می‌شود. برای کاستن از آثار تورمی نرخ ارز و قابل پیش‌بینی شدن آن، پیشنهاد می‌شود به جای تمرکز بر ثابت نگه داشتن نرخ ارز، ثبات رشد آن مورد توجه قرار گیرد. بر سیاست‌گذار فرض است قطع ارتباط میان رشد نقدینگی و تورم را پدیده‌ای دائمی تلقی نکند و کنترل کل‌های پولی را در کانون توجه خود قرار دهد .
Extended Abstract Purpose: Despite the fact that there is consensus regarding the effects of inflation and the need to deal with it, the determinants of inflation, the evolution of the relationship between them, and the comparison of the intensity and weakness of each one is areas of controversy. Meanwhile, the frequency of exchange rate and liquidity in the corresponding studies stand out more than other variables. It is recommended to follow the exchange rate transition theory to control inflation through this channel. It is also necessary to control monetary aggregates according to what the monetarists have depicted about the origin of inflation across space and over time. Regardless of the intensity and weakness of the influences of the two variables in the context of time and in different horizons, inspired by the revealed facts and the support of the literature, what makes the problem more complex is the likelihood of the flow of causality to change between the variables. Therefore, although the effects of liquidity and exchange rate on inflation have been investigated in several studies, the reported results are not consistent. This situation can have different reasons, the discovery of which improves the cognitive processing power and provides immediate requirements for adopting efficient policies. In this direction, attention is paid to the intertwining of the above three variables, knowing the net effect of liquidity (exchange rate) on inflation by removing the effect of exchange rate (liquidity), and investigating the possibility of its change over time and in short-term and long-term horizons. In terms of intensity and flow of causation, it can be useful and become the subject of policy making. Methodology: The Granger causality test is a regular method of econometrics in which the causal relationship between time series is examined without referring to economic theories. According to its nature, this method provides a momentary measure of causality but is unable to analyze the dynamics and reliability of causality. In addition, in the Granger causality method, intermittent values of variables are used, and, as a result, there will be a possibility of eliminating instantaneous effects. To solve this problem, spectral analysis is used. Fourier transform is one of the widely used topics in spectrum analysis, which serves to reveal the existing relationships between time series at different frequencies. Due to the fluctuating nature of the correlation among some economic time series, it is investigated in the analysis. The dynamics of causality can also be used. In the Fourier transform, in addition to the local time information being left out, the stability of the hypothetical time series is essential. However, many time series are unstable and most of their characteristics change over time. Due to this limitation, the wavelet transform is considered as a useful alternative to the Fourier transform in discovering causal relationships. The present research investigated the relationship of liquidity growth and exchange rate with inflation. For this purpose, seasonal data from 1990 to 2022 and continuous wavelet transformation were used. The distinguishing feature of the research was the use of multiple coherence tools, partial coherence, partial phase difference and partial wavelet gain. Findings and Discussion: The results of the multiple correlation showed that, in the context of time and in the horizons of less than eight years, the growth of liquidity and the exchange rate are simultaneously a suitable explanation for the changes in inflation (similar to the coefficient of determination in the regression). Coherence, phase difference and partial wave interest showed that the growth of the exchange rate on all scales (up to 8 years) and over time creates inflationary pressure, the corresponding coefficient of which is less than 0.5. Liquidity growth and inflation have experienced an unstable relationship in terms of intensity, direction and flow of causality. So, within 1.5-4 years in the late 2010s, the growth of liquidity had a strong effect on inflation. In the horizon of 4-8 years in the 1997-2001, 2006-2011, and 2019-2020 periods, this pattern was repeated. This is important due to the inflationary conditions and the government budget. Liquidity following inflation has also happened on different scales, which can be attributed to the internalization of money in Iran's economy. Conclusion and Policy Implications: The results have two important policy implications as follows: As long as the growth of the exchange rate and liquidity-induced inflationary pressure are concerned, the effect of the exchange rate is always little and stable. Therefore, it is suggested that exchange rate changes be included in the dynamics of inflation considered by the policy maker. This important point will not occur, unlike the current procedure which mainly occurs with the pattern of repression and mutation due to the inability to suppress. Therefore, instead of nominally anchoring the exchange rate, it is necessary for the policy maker to commit to maintain stability in the growth of the exchange rate so that the effects of inflation will be less. Although the growth of liquidity has not created inflationary pressure in all the years ever since this relationship was established, the effects will be severe and destructive for the general level of prices. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent the transfer of discontent in the economy and monetize them, regardless of setting a horizon on inflation and expecting immediate effects. To this end, it is necessary to reduce the budget deficit and the imbalance in the banking system as two sources of liquidity expansion. In addition, it is not enough to look at the past history of liquidity following inflation and target liquidity growth; it should base a tool to guide monetary policy. Therefore, in addition to using the common monetary policy tool (interest rate), it is necessary to consider the control of monetary totals so that the monetary policy can achieve its original goals.
خلاصه ماشینی:
در اين ميان ، اثرگذاري نرخ ارز و نقدينگي بر تورم در اقتصاد ايران توجه بيش تري را به خود جلب کرده است .
1. Exchange-Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) تبديل موجک پيوسـته ١ بينش جديدي در خصـوص رابطه ي ميان رشـد نقدينگي و نرخ ارز با تورم در اقتصـــاد ايران طي ســـال هاي ١٤٠١:٢–١٣٦٩:٢ ارائه کند.
از آن جا که بهره موجک جزئي اخيرا وارد مطالعات اقتصــادي ناظر بر حوزه زمان –فرکانس شده و نسبت به ابزار سنتي تبديل موجک پيوسته کاربرد بيش تري در تحليل هاي اقتصادي دارد، در بخش سوم به اين مهم پرداخته شده است ٨.
در بخشـــي از تحقيق برکچيان و همکاران (١٣٩٩) از تبديل موجک پيوســـته براي تحليل ارتباط ميان نرخ ارز و تورم شاخص قيمت مصرف کننده در اقتصاد ايران طي دوره زماني ١٣٩٨– ١٣٦٩استفاده شده است .
افزون بر اين ، به دليل ماهيت غير خطي ارتباط ميان سريهاي زماني اقتصادي، اهميت تغييرات رابطه آن در افق هاي مختلف و در طول زمان ، ماهيت نوفه اي بودن و هم چنين وجود رفتار فصلي در آن ها، به کارگيري تبديل موجک و ابزارهاي آن راهگشاي مطالعات مختلف خارجي و داخلي بوده است .
با وجود اين ، طيف توان براي تورم و رشد نقدينگي حکايت از نوسان هاي گسترده دارد که فراتر از نوسان هاي تجربه شده در نرخ ارز (از لحاظ زماني) ميباشند.
با توجه به لزوم جداسازي اثر رشد نقدينگي و نرخ ارز بر تورم در حوزه سياست گذاري پولي، در ادامه اين مهم توسط همدوسي جزئي، اخلاف فاز جزئي و بهره موجک جزئي صورت ميگيرد.
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