چکیده:
با توجه به غیرمترقبه بودن حوادث طبیعی به‌ویژه زلزله و نیاز به اتخاذ تصمیمهای راهبردی، دانشی تحت عنوان مدیریت بحران در راستای کاهش میزان خسارت‌ها و تلفات انسانی در زمان بروز بلایای طبیعی مطرح شده است. با توجه به نقش مدیریت بحران در کاهش اثرات مخاطرات، تحقیق حاضر با هدف شناسایی پیشران‌های تأثیرگذار بر کاهش آسیب‌ها و پیامدهای منفی زلزله با تأکید بر رویکرد مدیریت بحران در شهر اردبیل نگارش شده است. روش تحقیق در مطالعه‌ی حاضر کاربردی با ماهیت آینده‌پژوهی بوده که به‌منظور تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات از تکنیک تحلیل اثرات متقاطع در نرم‌افزار MICMAC استفاده شده است. همچنین اطلاعات تحقیق حاضر با بهره‌گیری از روش دلفی نخبگان و مدیران شهری (15 نفر متخصص حوزه‌ی مدیریت بحران) گردآوری گردیده است. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که بیشترین تأثیرگذاری در بین مؤلفه‌های (پیشران‌های) اصلی مورد بررسی بر سایر مؤلفه‌ها در راستای کاهش آسیب‌ها و پیامدهای ناشی از زلزله با تأکید بر مدیریت بحران در شهر اردبیل مربوط به مؤلفه‌های مدیریتی و بیشترین تأثیرپذیری نیز مربوط به مؤلفه‌های اجتماعی می‌باشد. همچنین در بین مؤلفه‌های فرعی بیشترین تأثیرگذاری مربوط به مؤلفه‌های وجود انسجام و یکپارچگی در نظام مدیریتی شهر برای مواجهه با مخاطرات طبیعی همچون زلزله، وجود نظام‌های اطلاعاتی پویا در مورد انواع مخاطرات به‌ویژه زلزله و حمایت از فرهنگ نوآوری و خلاقیت در راستای مدیریت بحران شهری در ابعاد پیشگیری، آمادگی، مواجهه و توانمندسازی بوده است. نتایج تحقیق نیز حاکی از آن است که با توجه به وضعیت موجود سیستم مدیریت بحران شهر اردبیل در راستای کاهش آسیب‌ها و پیامدهای ناشی از زلزله و کمبود مؤلفه‌های کلیدی و استراتژیک تأثیرگذار در راستای توسعه‌ی سیستم، آینده‌ی مدیریت مدیریت بحران در شهر اردبیل ناپایدار خواهد بود.
Extended AbstractIntroductionConsidering the importance of applying crisis management in the planning and management system of cities, the aim of the present research is to identify the drivers influencing the reduction of damages and negative consequences of earthquake in Ardabil city and its future research with emphasis on urban crisis management. In general, it can be said that in terms of geographical and geological conditions, Iran is among the countries that are very vulnerable to natural disasters such as earthquakes, so that 31.7% of its total area is located in areas that are exposed to natural disasters and In the report of accidents related to tectonic hazards, Iran is listed as one of the top ten countries in the world. Ardabil is also facing the risk of earthquake due to the location of several faults around the city and the history of earthquakes. In addition to this, the city of Ardabil has special features such as the centrality of the province and of course the high population, the concentration of most of the administrative and economic centers of the province, the presence of dilapidated and dense structures, etc., places this city among the sensitive centers that are exposed to the risks of Natural hazards, especially earthquakes. Currently, this set of factors has caused the level of vulnerability of Ardabil city and its citizens to natural hazards, especially earthquakes. MethodologyConsidering that the current research seeks to develop practical knowledge in identifying drivers influencing the reduction of damages and consequences caused by earthquakes, emphasizing the approach of crisis management in Ardabil city and its future research. Therefore, the research method is practical in terms of its purpose, and it is forward-looking in terms of its nature with emphasis on analytical and exploratory approach. In this regard, first by using the documentary method and interviews with managers and elites, the drivers influencing the reduction of damages and consequences caused by the earthquake were identified with an emphasis on the crisis management approach, and then by using the Delphi method (20 elites and managers) and applied The technique of cross-effects analysis in MICMAC software, information analysis has been done with a future research approach. Results and Discussion According to the obtained results, among the main components (drivers) examined, the most influential on other components in order to reduce the damages and consequences caused by the earthquake with emphasis on crisis management in Ardabil city is related to managerial components and the most influential is related to social components. Also, among the sub-components, the most influential are the components of the existence of cohesion and integration in the city's management system to face natural hazards such as earthquakes, the existence of dynamic information systems about various types of hazards, especially earthquakes, in the organizations in charge of crisis management and supporting the culture of innovation and creativity in the direction of urban crisis management in the dimensions of prevention, preparation, exposure and empowerment, and the most effective is also related to the components of citizens' trust in city managers and officials and acceptance of their planning views, the quality of construction materials and buildings, and the quality and appropriate preparation of medical services and relief supplies for exposure. It has been with the earthquake crisis. Also, the influencing drivers do not affect a large number of components, and on the contrary, the components that are affected by a large number of drivers are many. Therefore, it can be said that according to the current situation of the crisis management system in Ardabil city in order to reduce the damage and consequences caused by the earthquake and the lack of key and strategic components that are effective in the development of the system, the future of crisis management in Ardabil city will be unstable. ConclusionThe investigations carried out show that despite the existence of the Neor, Astara and Hir faults around the city of Ardabil and their history of earthquakes on the one hand, and the widespread existence of problematic tissues (worn out and marginalized) and the weakness of the city's management system in order to upgrade them, on the other hand, is required strategic planning And we are strategic in order to face possible earthquakes and reduce their effects. Also, the results indicate that with the continuation of the current situation, the reduction of vulnerabilities and negative consequences caused by possible future earthquakes will be undesirable.
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