شناسایی عوامل کلیدی موثر بر گردشگری شهر خرم‌آباد با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی مقاله

امروزه گردشگری به‌عنوان یک صنعت، به مثابه پدیده پویای جهانی و اجتماعی است که شناخت و تحلیل علمی آن می‌تواند چهارچوب مطمئنی برای برنامه‌ریزی صنعت گردشگری در حال و آینده فراهم آورد. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر بر گردشگری شهر خرم‌آباد و بررسی چگونگی تأثیرگذاری این پیشران‌ها بر یکدیگر می‌باشد. این پژوهش از لحاظ راهبرد هدف‌گذاری کاربردی و روش آن توصیفی- تحلیلی و بر اساس روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی، اکتشافی می‌باشد. داده‌های نظری با روش اسنادی و داده‌های تجربی با روش پیمایشی بر اساس روش دلفی تهیه شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش 30 نفر از خبرگان و متخصصان صاحب‌نظر در حوزه گردشگری شهر خرم‌آباد به صورت نمونه‌گیری هدفمند انتخاب شده‌اند. جهت تجزیه‌ و تحلیل اطلاعات به دست آمده از روش‌های دلفی، تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و از نرم‌افزار MicMacاستفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل شده بیانگر آن است که آنچه از شیوه پراکندگی متغیرها مؤثر بر وضعیت آینده گردشگری شهر خرم‌آباد می‌توان فهمید، وضعیت ناپایداری سیستم است. 4عامل اصلی به‌عنوان عوامل کلیدی بر آینده گردشگری شهر خرم‌آباد شدت تأثیرگذاری بیشتر را دارند که عبارت‌اند از: دسترسی آسان، آب‌وهوا مناسب، موقعیت مناسب و استراتژیک در منطقه، وجود آثار تاریخی-یادمانی. در نتیجه تحلیل‌های ماتریس و ارزیابی پلان تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری عوامل کلیدی با روش‌های مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، تعداد 12 عامل کلیدی که شامل: طرح جامع گردشگری، مدیریت یکپارچه، سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی،توسعه مراکز تفریحی و گردشگری، دسترسی آسان، موقعیت مناسب و استراتژیک در منطقه، آب‌وهوای مناسب، سیاست کلان دولت، تعداد جذابیت‌های گردشگری، افزایش مراکز اقامتگاهی، وجود آثار مهم تاریخی یادمانی و وجود امنیت، شناسایی شدند.

Today, tourism as an industry is a dynamic global and social phenomenon whose scientific knowledge and analysis can provide a reliable framework for planning the current and future tourism industry. The aim of this study is to identify the key drivers of tourism in Khorramabad and to investigate how these drivers affect each other. This research is descriptive-analytical in terms of applied goal setting strategy and its method and exploratory based on future research methods. Theoretical data were prepared by documentary method and experimental data by survey method based on Delphi method. The statistical population of the study was 30 experts and specialists in the field of tourism in Khorramabad city were selected by purposive sampling. Delphi methods, cross-impact analysis and MicMac software were used to analyze the obtained data. The results show that what can be understood from the distribution of variables affecting the future tourism situation in Khorramabad is the instability of the system. 4 main factors as key factors on the future of tourism in the city of Khorramabad have the greatest impact, which are: easy access, suitable climate, appropriate and strategic location in the region, the existence of historical monuments. As a result of matrix analysis and evaluation of the impact plan of key factors by direct and indirect methods, 12 key factors including: comprehensive tourism plan, integrated management, private sector investment, development of leisure and tourism centers, easy access, convenient and strategic location in The region, suitable climate, government macro-policy, number of tourist attractions, increase of accommodation centers, existence of important historical monuments and security were identified. Extended Abstract IntroductionThe city of Khorramabad, with its many historical and natural attractions, has not yet been able to lead to the growth and development of the tourism industry, as well as a source of income for people in this city. Existence of tourist attractions can be effective as an effective hub in attracting tourists as well as attracting capital in tourism in Lorestan province. In order to achieve this, although the future can not be predicted, instead of discussing the future, perspectives and scenarios can be used that provide clear images of possible futures. The highlighting of future research topics in tourism can be traced to the fact that the discussion of future discussions will help government and private organizations in the field of tourism to clarify the space ahead and make the right decisions. Therefore, this study intends to find a scientific and logical answer to the question that key drivers are based on the future research approach and with the aim of providing a suitable cognitive and scientific context for urban development and tourism planners and policy makers in Khorramabad. What are the factors affecting the development of tourism in Khorramabad? MethodologyThe method of this research is based on futures research approach. This research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. In the present study, the theoretical literature in the field of futures, research and urban tourism was first reviewed. The basis for collecting information is library-documentary and survey based on the Delphi method. In selecting the Delphi team, purposive sampling method was used. Criteria for selecting experts include theoretical mastery, practical experience, willingness and ability to participate in research and access. The statistical population of the study: 30 experts and specialists in the field of tourism in Khorramabad have been selected by purposive sampling. At this stage, experts and specialists in the field of tourism were questioned using a questionnaire, then using the Delphi method, variables affecting the future status of tourism in Khorramabad were identified. In order to identify the most important effective and probable variables in the development and improvement of urban tourism in Khorramabad from active urban managers, university faculty members, experts and urban decision makers at different levels in different fields of sociology, geography and urban planning, Environment etc. were exploited. In this regard, in the first stage, by summarizing the developed variables and also by interviewing the above experts and specialists, 65 variables were identified. In the second stage, in order to have more control over the variables that were selected in the first stage, they were provided to specialists and experts, and at the end, 50 effective variables were identified. In the third stage, 50 identified variables were provided to experts and experts and then in a centralized manner and using the final survey of all the above experts, 33 variables were selected and identified as described in Table (1) for analysis. Then, Mic Mac software was used to analyze the cross-effects. Finally, by conducting studies and analyzes, the key factors affecting the future state of the system were extracted. Mick Mac software was used to identify the effective variables used to model the identification of key factors affecting tourism in Khorramabad. Results and discussionAs mentioned, 33 factors were identified as key factors affecting the future of tourism in Khorramabad and analyzed by Mick Mac software to extract the main factors affecting the future of tourism in Khorramabad. The dimensions of the matrix are 33 x 33 and the degree of filling of the matrix is ​​76.767, which shows that about 77% of the cases, the factors have affected each other. Matrix based on statistical indicators with 2 rotations of data has a 100% optimization utility, which indicates the high validity of the questionnaire. According to Table (2), out of a total of 836 evaluable relationships in this matrix, 253 relationships were zero, which means that the factors did not affect each other or were not influenced by each other. 282 relationships, their number was one, meaning that they had little effect on each other, 339 relationships, their number was 2, which means that they had a strong Nesta effective interface, 215 relationships, their number was 3, which means that the relationships were There have been many key issues and they have been very influential. ConclusionThis research has been established with the aim of identifying the most important factors affecting tourism in Khorramabad with a future research approach. What can be understood from the distribution of variables affecting the future tourism situation of Khorramabad is the instability of the system. Most variables are rhombic in shape and are scattered from southwest to northeast around the diagonal axis of the plate. With the exception of a few cases that show that they have a high impact on the system, the rest of the variables are almost identical to each other. Five types of unstable variables (affective variables, two-dimensional variables, regulatory variables, affective variables and independent variables) have been identified. Among these, 4 driving factors have a greater impact on the future of tourism in Khorramabad.