خلاصة:
The Caucasus has seen numerous crises since the region gained independence following the collapse
of the Soviet Union. Some of these crises have not been resolved yet as evidenced by recent Russia-
Georgia conflict. This paper seeks to analyze such crises within the framework of significant
geopolitical changes unfolded by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The main thrust of the paper is that
in the post-Soviet era, the Russians lost much of their control over the region due to their own
domestic problems, but it seems that Moscow is not interested in withdrawing further from the region.
The findings of the paper indicate that under current conditions, it seems that as long as all regional
and extra-regional powers fail to consider the interests of other powers or try to pose threats to them,
the crises will continue to unfold in the Caucasus, while there is no agreed dispute settlement
mechanism in the region either.
ملخص الجهاز:
The present paper assumes that the geopolitical characteristics of the Caucasus, along with some mediating variables, such as energy resources and its ethnic composition, have increased the interest and potential influence of great powers in the region.
In fact, the combined effect of political will and potential influence of great powers has prevented the Caucasus from peacefully overcoming the geopolitical changes that have resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Nonetheless, although great powers such as Russia, the United States and the European Union share political interests in preventing the Caspian Sea from becoming a crisis-ridden zone, these actors have behaved competitively in this region.
Given the overall Russian thinking about the Karabakh issue, it can be said that the most important ingredients of Russia's approach in managing the Karabakh crisis were the maintenance of a strategic balance in the Caucasus, preventing regional and trans-regional rivals from being successful in settling the dispute, and minimizing the influence of these parties, especially the U.
Accordingly, the main reason for Russia's objection to Georgia's membership in NATO and establishment of the great powers' presence in the country includes the vulnerability of Russia's national security in a region like Chechnya.
Given the fragile nature of ethnic issues in the Caucasus and its neighboring regions in the Russian territory, the reluctance of many nationalities to accept Russia's domination, and the likelihood that they could be intrigued by outside forces, Russia regards the republics of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia as its strategic depth and considers any influence exerted by foreign powers in these regions as a threat to its national security.