Abstract:
با بحرانی شدن هرچه بیشتر وضعیت خشکسالی دریاچه ارومیه و آسیب پذیری روزافزون سکونتگاه های روستایی در برابر این بلای طبیعی ، اهمیت رویکرد مقابله با این تهدید را بیش ازپیش آشکار ساخته است . پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تنوع معیشتی به عنوان یکی از رویکردهای مناسب برای کنار آمدن با شرایط خشکسالی دریاچه ارومیه میپردازد. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش به صورت کمی پیمایش بوده است ، بنابراین از روش های توصیفی، تحلیلی و روابط همبستگی استفاده شده است . برای این منظور ٤٣ روستا از مناطق مختلف شش شهرستان واقع در کرانه شرقی دریاچه ارومیه با درجات مختلفی از در معرض خشکسالی بودن و همچنین در سطوح مختلف از نظر برخورداری از امکانات توسعه با روش تصادفی ساده انتخاب گردیده و بر اساس فرمول کوکران ٣٨٠ نفر از سرپرستان خانوارها به عنوان حجم نمونه انتخاب گردید. روایی پرسشنامه توسط پانل متخصصان مورد تایید و سطح پایایی پرسشنامه با استفاده از فرمول آلفای کرونباخ ٠/٨٩٣ به دست آمده است . نتایج به دست آمده نشان میدهند که اتخاذ رویکرد معیشتی منجر به تاب آوری بیشتر خانوارها در شرایط خشکسالی دریاچه ارومیه شده است . در روستاهایی که در معرض خشکسالی شدیدتری قرار داشتند، این تنوع معیشتی بیشتر بوده است . در نهایت با توجه به نتایج پژوهش ، پیشنهادات کاربردی درزمینه راهکاری عملی تنوع معیشتی و تاب آوری روستایی ارائه شده است .
Nowadays, the severity of the drought hazard has reached a point that has affected all the rural and urban areas surrounding it. Increasing the resilience of villages via livelihood solutions, is one of the best strategies for reducing the vulnerability of villages against natural hazards such as drought. The eastern side of the Lake Urmia consists of the six cities of Osku, Azarshahr, Bonab, Shabestar, Ajabshir and Malekan. Totally, there are 199 villages in this region, which are affected by the drought of the Lake, directly and indirectly and according to the statistics, the quantitative and qualitative reduction in agricultural and livestock productions and soil quality, the incidence of respiratory diseases and
have risen sharply compared to the past and a number of villages have been evacuated. Also because of the lack of a coherent strategy, which should be taken by the planners and authorities, the important measures to revitalize the Lake has not been taken yet and the dimensions of the threat are increasing day by day.
Current study investigate the factors affecting the resilience of rural settlements of the eastern side of the Lake Urmia against Drought. This is an applied and analytic-explanatory research. The data is collected by questionnaire from the villagers living in rural areas of the six cities, which are the statistical population of the research and the total number of the villages estimated 199 with 232295 persons.
The standardized Perception Index (SPI) is used to estimate the varying degrees of the villages in the eastern side of the Lake Urmia. In the next step, the possession index for each of the villages was calculated and the studied villages were classified based on it. On this basis and by considering the four status of drought and the three levels of possession, after sorting the villages on the basis of these two indexes, 43 villages were chosen from different regions of the eastern side of the Lake as the first level of analysis, using systematic random selection. Also, to classify the villages in the regard of possessing of the development facilities, the composite indicators called Morris pattern and 47 existing items are used, which are calculated in 9 different indexes. Finally, the obtained information were analyzed using SPSS and GIS software.
Regarding to the research findings at the eastern side of the Lake and on the basis of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), about 78% of this area has been experiencing drought. Also, the status of the overall indicators of household's livelihood capital on the basis of the Normal Scale from 0 to 10 is 3.34, which shows the unfavorable status of this index. The results of the study in the field of the level of civil and institutional development showed that on the basis of the Normal scale from 0 to 10, civil development is 4.86 and institutional development is 3.69. Lastly, the research findings for the three levels of the sustainable development of the livelihood shows that the livelihood diversification is 3.61, in depth agriculture 3.24 and migration strategy is 3.02. The analysis of the results of the sustainable livelihood shows that the decrease of drought of the villages increases the diversity of the livelihood of the villagers. According to the results obtained, the mean of the resilience index of the investigated households on the basis of 0 to 10 equals to 4.86, which is close to the average level. The classified distribution of the resilience level and the focus of the more than of 56% of the households with average level of resilience confirms this situation. 30.26% of the households has low resilience and 15.64% has high resilience in the face of existing conditions. Upon this basis, the highest amount of the resilience equals to 5.38, which exists in the villages with severe drought conditions and by decrease of the drought, the resilience of households decreases. Finally it can be said that the villages with a long history of vulnerability from drought and also having more intense droughts, has a higher resilience level in dealing with the situation.
According to the results, the highest amount of vulnerability exists in the villages with low experience in dealing with the long-term conditions of drought, which their economic and social structures are not prepared to deal with the conditions. While the average amount of the livelihood capitals and the resilience of the studied statistical population do not show an appropriate conditions, but totally, the results and relationships of the studied variables conforms the role of possessing all dimensions of livelihood capital on taking appropriate approach to dealing with the conditions of drought in the Lake Urmia. In the field of taking the approaches of diversifying the livelihood resources of the villagers, there are several scientific and examined solutions, such as considering the education and awareness as a definite reality, also the knowledge and skills of the villagers in the fields of modifying the crop patterns, water saving strategies, the use of efficient products and making use of the other high-income jobs must be increased.
In the field of educational solutions, besides providing modern knowledge and international successful experiences, it must be possible to make use of the indigenous knowledge and experiences of the villagers.
Machine summary:
از طرفی عدم 1 Livelihood diversification 2 Intensive agriculture 9 migration اتخاذ استراتژی منسجم از مسئولان و برنامه ریزان منجر به این شده که تاکنون اقدام مهمی برای احیای این دریاچه صورت نگرفته و روزبه روز خطرات و تهدیدات خشکسالی ابعاد بیشتری به خورد گیرد؛ بنابراین وجود دامنه گسترده ریسک و خطر خشکسالی دریاچه ی ارومیه و ضرورت توجه به راهکارهای ارتقای تاب آوری جوامع روستایی پیرامونی این دریاچه سبب شد که در این تحقیق به ارائه پاسخ علمی به این سؤال باشیم که راهکارهای ارتقای تاب آوری روستاهای پیرامون دریاچه ارومیه در برابر خشکسالی از طریق راهبرد تنوع معیشتی به چه صورت است ؟ داده ها و روش کار محدوده مطالعاتی در این پژوهش را منطقه کرانه شرقی دریاچه ارومیه شامل ٦ شهرستان : آذرشهر، اسکو، بناب ، شبستر، عجب شیر و ملکان تشکیل میدهد.
خنثی شدن اثر توسعه نهادی و عمرانی در شرایط تعامل با دیگر متغیرها و نیز تأثیر مستقیم و منفی متغیرهای مهاجرت و منفی کشاورزی عمقی در مدل فوق از نکات درخور توجه است که حاکی از اهمیت زیاد اتخاذ راهبردهای معیشتی اعم از تنوع منابع درآمدی روستائیان با هدف کلی ارتقای کیفیت زندگی روستایی در کرانه شرقی دریاچه ارومیه است .
اگرچه متوسط میزان سرمایه های معیشتی و تاب آوری در جامعه آماری بررسی شده شرایط مناسبی را نشان نمیدهد، ولی در مجموع نتایج و روابط موجود بین متغیرهای مطالعه شده تأیید کننده نقش برخورداری از همه ابعاد سرمایه معیشتی در اتخاذ رویکرد مناسب در مواجهه با شرایط خشکسالی دریاچه ارومیه است .