Abstract:
Investigation of drought event has a great importance in the natural resources and water resources
management and planning. In this research, the effect of the climate change on drought characteristics in Khoy
station was investigated using the HadCM3 model under B2 scenario. The statistical downscaling was executed
using SDSM 4.2.9 and observed daily precipitation, observed predictors and large-scale predictors derived from
the HadCM3 model. Afterwards the SPI was calculated for different time scales of 3, 12, 24, 48 months in the
observed period of 1977-2006 and also three periods of 2007-2036, 2037-2066 and 2067-2096. The results show
that the mean annual precipitation will decrease in the future periods, in the manner that the fourth and second
periods respectively with the depletion of 48 mm (17%) and 34 mm (12%) than the observed period have
maximum and minimum rate of the depletion. The results also show that the drought occurrence with more
intensity, duration and frequency can occur in the future periods.
Machine summary:
ir Desert 22-1 (2017) 43-50 Investigation of climate change effect on drought characteristics in the future period using the HadCM3 model (Case study: Khoy station, northwest of Iran) A.
On the basis of future prediction of different climate change scenarios, temperature increase and its effect on water demand and moreover, the probable decrease in precipitation in some regions, cause to give notice to the drought event seriously.
Golmohammadi and Massah Bavani (2011) investigated climate change impacts on drought intensity and duration at Gharasoo basin using HadCM3 and SPI during the period of 2040-2069 show that the drought intensity and duration will be decreased due to an increase in future precipitation.
Lee and Kim (2013) in the multi-model assessment of the climate change effect on the drought severity-duration-frequency relationship showed that among the four types of GCMs used in study, the MRI model predicted the most severe future drought for the Seoul region, and the SDF curve derived using the MRI model also resulted in the highest degree of drought severity compared with the other GCMs. Salehpour Jam (2015) indicated that drought event with more intensity, duration and frequency than base period can occur in future periods under A2 scenario in northwest of Iran.
In this research, the Climate change effect on drought characteristics at the Khoy station was investigated using the HadCM3 model under the B2 scenario and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).
In this study, climate change effects on drought characteristics in the Future Periods were investigated using the HadCM3 model under B2 scenario.