Abstract:
Cold and heat stress are environmental factors influencing the state of health of
individuals and the wider population. There is a large number of research to
document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during cold and heat
waves in every climate zone. In spite of the well-documented nature of
heat/cold-related health problems, only in few countries local or national
authorities have developed any special adaptation strategies for their healthcare
systems (HCS), with a view to addressing predicted increases in the frequency
and severity of cold- and heat-stress events. Such strategies draw on
epidemiological and climatological research. For example in Poland in the
years 2012-2015 research project pursued to study regional differentiation in
climate-related diseases in Poland, with regional-level predictions for their
occurrence through to 2100. The results of the project were applied in a
national strategy for adaptation to climate change This paper presents key
results of the part of this project dealing with heat- and cold related mortality in
various regions of Poland. Overall, in the near future a 4-28% increase in the
number of days imposing heat stress is anticipated, and may result in heatrelated
mortality significantly higher by the last decade of the 21st century than
in the years 1991-2000 (at a level between 137 and 277%)., Cold and heat stress are environmental factors influencing the state of health of individuals and the wider population. There is a large number of research to document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during cold and heat waves in every climate zone. In spite of the well-documented nature of heat/cold-related health problems, only in few countries local or national authorities have developed any special adaptation strategies for their healthcare systems (HCS), with a view to addressing predicted increases in the frequency and severity of cold- and heat-stress events. Such strategies draw on epidemiological and climatological research. For example in Poland in the years 2012-2015 research project pursued to study regional differentiation in climate-related diseases in Poland, with regional-level predictions for their occurrence through to 2100. The results of the project were applied in a national strategy for adaptation to climate change This paper presents key results of the part of this project dealing with heat- and cold related mortality in various regions of Poland. Overall, in the near future a 4-28% increase in the number of days imposing heat stress is anticipated, and may result in heat-related mortality significantly higher by the last decade of the 21st century than in the years 1991-2000 (at a level between 137 and 277%).
Machine summary:
Assessment of mortality risk in Poland due to cold and heat stress and predictions to 2100 Krzysztof Błażejczyk1, Anna Błażejczyk2, Jarosław Baranowski1, Magdalena Kuchcik1 1 Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Twarda 51/55, 00-818 Warszawa, Poland 2 Bioklimatologia.
The results of the project were applied in a national strategy for adaptation to climate change This paper presents key results of the part of this project dealing with heat- and cold related mortality in various regions of Poland.
Overall, in the near future a 4-28% increase in the number of days imposing heat stress is anticipated, and may result in heat-related mortality significantly higher by the last decade of the 21st century than in the years 1991-2000 (at a level between 137 and 277%).
The research comprises stage 1: statistical modelling based on past (climatological and epidemiological) data, and stage 2: projections for HRD and CRD in relation to three scenarios for climate change A1B, A2 and B1.
The environmental measure of heat and cold stress applied was the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), for which daily values were calculated using the BioKlima 2.
Stage 2 - projections for changes of CRD and HRD Projected values for key components of the climate allowed for the calculations of UTCI, as a basis upon which to assess mortality risks posed by heat and cold stress.
In spite of general heating of climate in the region where Poland lies we must still expect significant impact of cold stress on human health and mortality.