Abstract:
هدف اصلی این تحقیق ارزیابی اثرات اقتصادی تحریم بر علیه ایران است. این تحلیل با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه و با تمرکز با صادارت، واردات، تولید و سطح قیمتها انجام میگیرد. بر این اساس پس از کالیبره کردن مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه و اندازهگیری مقادیر پارامترها و متغیرهای برونزا، اثرات اقتصادی تحریم در اقتصاد ایران با استفاده از جدول داده ستانده سال 1395 و سایر اطلاعات آماری، بر اساس سناریوسازی، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است.
نتایج به دست آمده با استفاده از نرم افزار گمز نسخه 34 و در قالب دو سناریو تحقیق، نشان میدهد که تحریم واردات، اثرات اقتصادی شدیدتری در مقایسه با تحریم صادرات بر اقتصاد ایران داشته و در سناریو اول و دوم به ترتیب 6.72 و 9.87 درصد موجب کاهش رشد اقتصادی و 23.6 و 29.46 درصد موجب افزایش سطح عمومی قیمتهای طرف تولید میشود. در تحریم صادرات نیز طی دو سناریو اول و دوم، رشد اقتصادی 2.05 و 4.55 و سطح قیمتها نیز 2.03 و 4.5 درصد کاهش مییابند. نکته قابل توجه در این بحث، کاهش سطح عمومی قیمتها در تحریم صادرات بوده که مطابق با تحلیل نظری است.
The main objective of this study is to assess the economic impacts of sanctions against Iran. This analysis was performed using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on exports, imports, production, and price levels. After calibrating the CGE model and measuring the values of exogenous parameters and variables, the study assessed the economic impacts of sanctions on Iran’s economy using the 2016 input-output table (IOT) and other statistical information based on scenario building.
The results obtained using GAMS 34 and through two scenarios revealed that the import sanctions have had more severe economic impacts on Iran’s economy than the export sanctions, reducing economic growth by 6.72 and 9.87% and increasing the general level of production costs by 23.6 and 29.46% in the first and second scenarios, respectively. The export sanctions also led to an economic growth by 2.05 and 4.55% and increased the general level of production costs by 2.03 and 4.5% in the first and second scenarios, respectively. It is noteworthy that the general level of prices reduced in the export sanctions, which is consistent with the theoretical analysis.
Machine summary:
176 eta(i)=(2-1)/2; 177 phi(i)=(2+1)/2; 179 parameter 180 alpha(i) share parameter in utility function 181 beta(h,j) share parameter in production function 182 b(j) scale parameter in production function 184 ax(i,j) intermadiate input requirement coefficient 185 ay(j) vale added input requirement coefficient 186 mu(i) government consumption share 187 lambda(i) investment demand share 188 deltam(i) share parameter in Armington function 189 deltad(i) share parameter in Armington function 190 gamma(i) scale parameter in Armington function 191 xid(i) share parameter in trasnformation function 192 xie(i) share parameter in trasnformation function 193 theta(i) scale parameter in trasnformation function 194 ss average propensity for private saving 195 ssg average propensity for government saving 196 taud direct tax rate 197 ; 199 alpha(i) =Xp0(i)/sum(j,Xp0(j)); 200 beta(h,j)=F0(h,j)/sum(k,F0(k,j)); 201 b(j) =Y0(j)/prod(h,F0(h,j)**beta(h,j)); 203 ax(i,j) =X0(i,j)/Z0(j); 204 ay(j) =Y0(j)/Z0(j); 205 mu(i) =Xg0(i)/sum(j,Xg0(j)); 206 lambda(i)=Xv0(i)/(S0+Sg0+Sf); 208 deltam(i)=M0(i)**(1-eta(i))/(M0(i)**(1-eta(i))+D0(i)**(1-eta(i)));; 209 deltad(i)=D0(i)**(1-eta(i))/(M0(i)**(1-eta(i))+D0(i)**(1-eta(i))); 210 gamma(i) =Q0(i)/(deltam(i)*M0(i)**eta(i)+deltad(i)*D0(i)**eta(i))**(1/eta(i)); 211 xie(i) =E0(i)**(1-phi(i))/(E0(i)**(1-phi(i))+D0(i)**(1-phi(i))); 212 xid(i) =D0(i)**(1-phi(i))/(E0(i)**(1-phi(i))+D0(i)**(1-phi(i))); 213 theta(i) =Z0(i)/(Xie(i)*E0(i)**phi(i)+Xid(i)*D0(i)**phi(i))**(1/phi(i)); 215 ss =S0/sum(h,FF(h)); 216 ssg =Sg0/Td0; 217 taud =Td0/sum(h,FF(h)); 220 display alpha,beta,b,ax,ay,mu,lambda,deltam,deltad,gamma,xie,xid,theta,ss,ssg,taud; 221 *--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 222 223 *defining model system ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 224 variable Xp(i) houshold consumption for the i-th good 225 F(h,j) the h-th factor input by the j-th firm 226 X(i,j) intermediate input 227 Y(j) value added 228 Z(j) output of the j-th good 229 230 Xg(i) government consumption 231 Xv(i) investment demand 232 E(i) exports 233 M(i) imports 234 Q(i) Armington's coposite good 235 D(i) domestic good 236 237 pd(i) the i-th domestic good price 238 ps(i) supply price of i-th good 239 pq(i) Armington's coposite good price 241 py(i) value added price 242 pm(i) import price in local currency 243 pe(i) export price in local currency 245 r(h) the h-th factor price 246 epsilon exchange rate 248 Td direct tax 249 S private saving 250 Sg government saving 252 UU utility [fictitious] 253 ; 255 Equation eqXp(i) household demand function 256 eqpy(j) value added aggregation function 257 eqX(i,j) intermediate demand function 258 eqY(j) value added demand dunction 259 eqF(h,j) factor demand function 260 eqps(j) unit cost function 261 eqTd direct tax revenue function 262 eqXg(i) government demand function 263 eqXv(i) investment demand function 264 eqpe(i) word export price equation 265 eqpm(i) word import price equation 266 eqepsilon balance of payment 267 eqpqs(i) Armigton function 268 eqM(i) import demand function 269 eqD(i) domestic good demand function 270 eqpqd(i) market clearing condition of composite good 271 eqpz(i) transformation function 272 eqr(h) foctor market clearing condition 273 eqDs(i) domestice good supply function 274 eqE(i) export supply function 275 eqS private saving unction 276 eqSg government saving function 278 obj utility function [fictitious] 279 ; 281 *[household consumption] -- 282 eqXP(i)..