Abstract:
همانطور که مطالعات پیشین نشان دادهاند، علیرغم گستردگی و تنوع میعارهای تبیینکننده پایداری، عوامل موثر بر تحقق آن به طور کلی مغفول مانده و به ویژه در زمینه سیستمهای حملونقل عمومی و مطالعات آینده دارای خلاءهای نظری میباشد. لذا در مطالعه حاضر با اتخاذ یک چارچوب آیندهنگاری مبتنی بر رویکرد پسنگری، آینده سیستم حملونقل عمومی کلانشهر تهران به عنوان نمونه مطالعاتی برای سال 1420 تبیین و مدلسازی شد. دادههای مورد استفاده شامل متغیرهای پویش محیطی، مصاحبه با خبرگان و پرسشگری از شهروندان شهر تهران بود. برای تجزیه و تحلیل دادهها ترکیبی از روشهای کمّی و کیفی مدنظر قرار گرفت. در بخش کیفی، از تحلیل تم و چشماندازسازی استفاده گردید و در بخش کمّی، از روش تحلیل ساختاری با پایه نرمافزار میکمک و سناریو ویزارد و همچنین آزمونهای آمار استنباطی شامل تحلیل واریانس، تحلیل رگرسیون و آزمون تی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که مهمترین پیشرانهای شکلدهنده به آینده سیستم حمل و نقل عمومی شهر تهران، شامل تشدید تحریمهای بینالمللی علیه ایران و عدم ثبات اقتصادی، عدم پذیرش اجتماعی حمل و نقل عمومی در قبال خودروی شخصی از طرف ساکنان، اولویتهای سرمایهگذاری دولت و میزان پذیرش و حمایت از ابتکارات زیست محیطی، فناوریهای نو و انرژیهای پاک توسط نهادهای مدیریت شهری تهران است. از طرفی پیشرانها به شدت دارای برهمکنش هستند. به طوری که با کوچکترین تغییر در پیشرانهای کلیدی، سایر متغیرهای مدل نیز دستخوش تغییراتی جدی میشوند و سیستم آینده حمل و نقل شهر تهران هر چه بیشتر از مولفههای پایداری دور میشود.
As previous studies have shown, despite the breadth and variety of criteria that explain sustainability, the factors affecting its realization are generally neglected and especially in the field of public transportation systems and future studies have theoretical gaps. Therefore, in the present study, by adopting a futuristic framework based on the retrospective approach, the future of the public transportation system of Tehran metropolis was explained and modeled as a study sample for the year 1420. The data used included environmental scan variables, interviews with experts and questioning of citizens of Tehran. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was considered for data analysis. In the qualitative part, theme and landscape analysis were used, and in the quantitative part, structural analysis based on Mikmak software and Wizard scenario were used, as well as inferential statistical tests including analysis of variance, regression analysis and t-test. The results showed that the most important drivers shaping the future of Tehran's public transportation system, including the intensification of international sanctions against Iran and economic instability, social rejection of public transportation for private cars by residents, government investment priorities and acceptance rates, and Tehran is supported by environmental initiatives, new technologies and clean energy. On the other hand, propellants are highly interactive. So that with the slightest change in key propulsion, other variables of the model will also undergo serious changes and the future transportation system of Tehran will move away from the components of stability as much as possible.As previous studies have shown, despite the breadth and variety of criteria that explain sustainability, the factors affecting its realization are generally neglected and especially in the field of public transportation systems and future studies have theoretical gaps. Therefore, in the present study, by adopting a futuristic framework based on the retrospective approach, the future of the public transportation system of Tehran metropolis was explained and modeled as a study sample for the year 1420. The data used included environmental scan variables, interviews with experts and questioning of citizens of Tehran. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was considered for data analysis. In the qualitative part, theme and landscape analysis were used, and in the quantitative part, structural analysis based on Mikmak software and Wizard scenario were used, as well as inferential statistical tests including analysis of variance, regression analysis and t-test. The results showed that the most important drivers shaping the future of Tehran's public transportation system, including the intensification of international sanctions against Iran and economic instability, social rejection of public transportation for private cars by residents, government investment priorities and acceptance rates, and Tehran is supported by environmental initiatives, new technologies and clean energy. On the other hand, propellants are highly interactive. So that with the slightest change in key propulsion, other variables of the model will also undergo serious changes and the future transportation system of Tehran will move away from the components of stability as much as possible.As previous studies have shown, despite the breadth and variety of criteria that explain sustainability, the factors affecting its realization are generally neglected and especially in the field of public transportation systems and future studies have theoretical gaps. Therefore, in the present study, by adopting a futuristic framework based on the retrospective approach, the future of the public transportation system of Tehran metropolis was explained and modeled as a study sample for the year 1420. The data used included environmental scan variables, interviews with experts and questioning of citizens of Tehran. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was considered for data analysis. In the qualitative part, theme and landscape analysis were used, and in the quantitative part, structural analysis based on Mikmak software and Wizard scenario were used, as well as inferential statistical tests including analysis of variance, regression analysis and t-test. The results showed that the most important drivers shaping the future of Tehran's public transportation system, including the intensification of international sanctions against Iran and economic instability, social rejection of public transportation for private cars by residents, government investment priorities and acceptance rates, and Tehran is supported by environmental initiatives, new technologies and clean energy. On the other hand, propellants are highly interactive. So that with the slightest change in key propulsion, other variables of the model will also undergo serious changes and the future transportation system of Tehran will move away from the components of stability as much as possible.As previous studies have shown, despite the breadth and variety of criteria that explain sustainability, the factors affecting its realization are generally neglected and especially in the field of public transportation systems and future studies have theoretical gaps. Therefore, in the present study, by adopting a futuristic framework based on the retrospective approach, the future of the public transportation system of Tehran metropolis was explained and modeled as a study sample for the year 1420. The data used included environmental scan variables, interviews with experts and questioning of citizens of Tehran. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was considered for data analysis. In the qualitative part, theme and landscape analysis were used, and in the quantitative part, structural analysis based on Mikmak software and Wizard scenario were used, as well as inferential statistical tests including analysis of variance, regression analysis and t-test. The results showed that the most important drivers shaping the future of Tehran's public transportation system, including the intensification of international sanctions against Iran and economic instability, social rejection of public transportation for private cars by residents, government investment priorities and acceptance rates, and Tehran is supported by environmental initiatives, new technologies and clean energy. On the other hand, propellants are highly interactive. So that with the slightest change in key propulsion, other variables of the model will also undergo serious changes and the future transportation system of Tehran will move away from the components of stability as much as possible.