Abstract:
The efficiency of the central bank as the most important economic and monetary institution of any country is of special importance. Study on the efficiency of the Central Bank of Iran is an inevitable necessity due to the instability of prices and significant non-performing loans in the banking system. In this study, first, the efficiency of the Central Bank of Iran along with 16 different countries was calculated by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. The input variables for calculating the efficiency of the central bank are fixed assets and personnel and administrative cost. The output variables include monetary policy and banking supervision, which banking supervision includes financial and banking freedom and the ratio of non-performance loans. Then factors affecting the efficiency of the Central Bank of Iran between the years 2012 to 2018 were extracted by using the system dynamics modeling method. In the first step, the causal loop diagrams (CLD) and the stock-flow diagram (SFD) were drawn. Then model validation tests were performed. Finally, different scenarios were investigated. The results of this study showed that the Central Bank of Iran in 2012-2018 is one of the most inefficient central banks among the 16 countries studied and is a long way from the three countries on the efficiency frontier like South Korea, Canada, and Australia. Central bank Independence and the significant amount of non-performing loans of the banking system are the main reasons for the inefficiency of the central bank of Iran. By applying different scenarios to improve the efficiency of the Central Bank, it was concluded that the most important effective factors to improve the efficiency of the Central Bank of Iran are monitoring the banking system along with preventing the increase of government debt with the independence of the Central Bank.
بررسی کارایی بانک مرکزی ایران با توجه به بی ثباتی قیمت ها و مطالبات غیرجاری قابل توجه در نظام بانکی یک ضرورت اجتناب ناپذیر است. در این پژوهش ابتدا کارایی بانک مرکزی ایران به همراه 16 کشور مختلف به روش تحلیل پوششی داده ها (DEA) طی 2012- 2018محاسبه شده است. سپس با استفاده از روش مدلسازی پویایی شناسی سیستمی در نرم افزار ونسیم ، عوامل موثر بر کارایی بانک مرکزی ایران مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته است. نتایج این مطالعه نشان می دهد که عدم استقلال بانک مرکزی و حجم قابل توجه مطالبات غیرجاری نظام بانکی از دلایل اصلی ناکارایی بانک مرکزی ایران است. با اعمال سناریوهای مختلف برای ارتقای کارایی بانک مرکزی، این نتیجه حاصل شد که مهمترین عوامل موثر در بهبود کارایی بانک مرکزی، نظارت بر سیستم بانکی و جلوگیری از افزایش بدهی دولت همراه با استقلال بانک مرکزی است.