Abstract:
الگوی معیشت سنتی روستاها معمولاً پاسخگوی زندگی مردم نبوده و لزوم تغییر آن با توانمندسازی اقتصادی- اجتماعی روستاییان اجتناب‌ناپذیر است. در این راستا رویکرد آینده‌پژوهشی با توانمندسازی اقتصادی- اجتماعی می‌تواند بهره‌برداری خردمندانه از منابع و امکانات محلی را تسهیل نماید. پژوهش حاضر از نوع کاربردی است که با هدف آینده‌پژوهی توانمندسازی اقتصادی- اجتماعی روستاییان در تغییر الگوی معیشت در روستاهای سیستان انجام شده است. روش تحقیق توصیفی – تحلیلی مبتنی بر بررسی‌های اسنادی، میدانی و تکمیل پرسشنامه بوده است. جامعه آماری تحقیق در واحد روستا، 796 نقطه روستایی در سیستان و در واحد خانوار، 60075 خانوار روستایی بود. حجم نمونه در واحد روستا با استفاده از فرمول اصلاحی شارپ 40 و در واحد خانوار، بر اساس فرمول کوکران 321 تعیین گردید. روایی پرسشنامه تدوین‌شده با استفاده از نظر کارشناسان خبره و پایایی آن با ضریب آلفای کرونباخ تائید گردید. تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌های گردآوری‌شده با آزمون‌های مناسب نرم‌افزار SPSS انجام گردیده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که بین توانمندسازی اقتصادی– اجتماعی روستاییان و تغییر الگوی معیشت آن‌ها رابطه معنادار وجود دارد. توانمندسازی اقتصادی با ضریب همبستگی 302/0 و توانمندسازی اجتماعی با ضریب همبستگی 112/0 می‌تواند در تغییر الگوی معیشت روستاییان سیستان در حال و آینده مؤثر باشد.
Introduction
Empowering means encouraging people to participate more in decisions that affect their
activities, that is, providing space for individuals so that they can create good ideas and turn
them into action (Evans,2010:234245) . So, with these intellectual and cultural revolutions in
the village, the purpose of Futurology is to: first, address the present, is what shapes the
future; secondly, thinking about the future plays the role of recognizing the situation, that is,
helping people Detect yourself in the present and know where they are now. Thirdly, the
results of Futurology allow individuals to measure their current demands with future
demands. (Shaban,2013:69).
Materials and methods
The present research is applied in a descriptive-analytical manner in terms of its nature and
method. Information about the background of the research and the subject matter were
prepared through documentary and library studies and inferential findings were made field by
using questionnaires, interviews and visits. The statistical population of the study consisted of
all rural households in Sistan region using aspermman tests and simultaneous regression in
SPSS software to answer the research question. Also, GIS software was used to study the
Futurology of scenario analysis and spatial analysis and drawing maps.
Results and Discussion
35% of respondents from villagers in Hirmand city, 15% of villagers in Hamoon city, 25% of
villagers in Zahak city, 10% of villagers in Zabol city and 15% of villagers in Nimroz city;
76.9% of respondents were men and 23.1% Women have formed. Therefore, the villages of
Karbask, Jazink and Jalali with average of 2.19, 1.94 and 1.88 have got first to third rank of
socio-economic potentials Among economic indicators, early-stage occupations, handicrafts
and low-interest credit loans with averages of 3.68, 3.55 and 3.39, respectively, are ranked
first to third in economic empowerment of villagers in their livelihoods. Among the social
indicators, social participation, existence of service centers - extension and financial and
financial security with averages of 3.64, 3.9 and 3.7, respectively, with first to third rank in
social empowerment of villagers in changing their livelihoods Are effective.
Economic empowerment of villagers has a significant effect on changing the livelihood
pattern of villagers. Correlation between independent variable and dependent variable is equal
to 302/0 and the coefficient of determination is 551%, and this value shows that 55% of the
changes of economic empowerment of villagers are effective in changing their livelihood
pattern. And social empowerment of villagers also have a significant effect on changing the
livelihood pattern of villagers The correlation between the independent variable and the
dependent variable is equal to 112 and the coefficient of determination is 0.031 and this figure
shows that 11% of the social empowerment changes of the villagers is effective in changing
their livelihood pattern.
Conclusion
Economic empowerment of villagers has a significant effect on changing the livelihood
pattern of villagers. The promotion of a unit of economic empowerment strategy will improve
the standard deviation of the standard deviation of the standard deviation of the standard
deviation of the livelihood model, thus having a positive relationship. Social empowerment of
the villagers also has a significant effect on changing the livelihood pattern of villagers. And
promotion of a unit of social empowerment strategy will be enhanced by a standard deviation
of standard deviation of livelihoods.
Acknowledgements:
This article is extracted from, Mohammad Molashahi's dissertation entitled Futurology of
Socio-Economic Empowerment of Villagers in Changing the Livelihood Model (Case Study:
Villages in Sistan Area) in the geography department of Zabol University under the guidance
of Dr. Mahmoudreza Mirlotfi.
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