Abstract:
مطالعه روند تغییرات بارش برای برنامه ریزی های کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت مدیریتی اهمیت فراوانی دارد. اهمیت این مطالعه زمانی بیشتر می شود که در منطقه ای خشک و نیمه خشک مانند فارس با محدودیت زمانی و مکانی بارش روبرو باشیم. فلذا در مطالعه حاضر به بررسی روند بارش از 1369 تا 1399 در 27 ایستگاه باران سنجی، سینوپتیک و تبخیر سنجی در سطح استان فارس پرداخته شد. مطالعه روند تغییرات بارش در مقیاس های زمانی سالانه و فصلی و مکانی نقطه ای و منطقه ای صورت پذیرفت. از روش های من-کندال، تخمین گر شیب سن و تحلیل رگرسیون خطی برای تحلیل نقطه ای و از روش من-کندال منطقه ای برای تحلیل منطقه ای روند استفاده گردید. بارش سالانه در تمام ایستگاه ها و دوره زمانی مورد مطالعه شیب کاهشی داشت. ولی ارسنجان (5.9 میلیمتر در سال)، برغان (11.4 میلیمتر در سال)، تنگاب فیروزآباد (7.9 میلیمتر در سال) و فراشبند (5.1 میلیمتر در سال) تنها نقاط دارای روند معنادار کاهشی بارش در سطح اطمینان 95% بودند. درمقیاس فصلی، تقریبا دراکثر فصول و اکثر ایستگاه ها شاهد کاهش بارش هستیم. به جز فصل تابستان که در اکثر ایستگاه ها یک افزایش بارش خفیف مشاهده می شود. از میان این ایستگاه ها، ارسنجان (4.73 میلیمتر کاهش در سال)، برغان (14.5 میلیمتر در سال)، شیراز (4.6 میلیمتر در سال)، فراشبند (4.3 میلیمتردر سال)، کازرون (6.7 میلیمتر در سال)، مادرسلیمان (4.1 میلیمتر در سال و زرقان (4.4 میلیمتر در سال) شاهد روند کاهشی معنادار در سطح اطمینان 95% در فصل زمستان بودند. درسطح منطقه ای و در مقیاس سالانه و فصلی کل استان شاهد کاهش بارش به خصوص در فصل زمستان و بارش سالانه بوده است. این میزان کاهش بارش در شمال غرب استان کمی ضعیف تر از سایر نقاط استان است. افزایش بارش معنادار در فصل تابستان در قسمت جنوبی قابل مشاهده است. این امر ممکن است به دلیل فعالیت مانسون هند باشد. در فصل زمستان کاهش بارش مشاهده می شود.
Changes in hydrological-climatic series can occur in different ways. Change can occur suddenly or gradually (trend) or in more complex forms. In general, trend analysis is performed to obtain information and study whether a trend or a pattern can be extracted from this information. Information about precipitation trends is important, because precipitation trends are related to water-related problems in the region, environmental and water management goals. This information will be the most valuable when studying climate change and its effects on water resources management. Determining the precipitation trend has been one of the most important activities of hydrologists and meteorologists in advancing climate change studies. In addition, the study of climate change requires information on the trend of various indicators (hydrological and climatic) because climate change is a continuous change. Almost all water and meteorological parameters are affected by climate change phenomenon. Precipitation is one of these variables that strongly affects the environment and the hydrological cycle. The temporal changes of precipitation are important both from scientific and practical point of views, since they strongly affect water resources. Therefore, studying the process of these changes is very important for short-term and long-term management planning. The importance of this study increases when we face time and place limitations of rainfall in an arid and semi-arid region like Iran and especially in Fars province. Therefore, in the present study, the 30-year trend of precipitation was investigated in 27 rain, synoptic and evapotranspiration stations in Fars province. The study of rainfall changes was done at annual and seasonal and at both stational and regional scales. At the first step, monthly precipitation data was gathered from meteorological organization and water resources management company. Then monthly data was converted to seasonal and annual data sets. Mann-Kendall methods, age slope estimator and linear regression analysis were used to conduct at point analysis. In order to study the rainfall trends at regional scale, first, the study area was clustered based on mean seasonal and annual precipitation using the K-mean clustering method. It is worth mentioning that for each season and annual, separate homogenous regions were formed. Then regional Mann-Kendall method was utilized to investigate the trends in each homogenous region. On an annual scale, a decreasing trend of precipitation was observed at all stations. But Arsanjan, Berghan, Tangab Firozabad and Farashband stations are the only points whose rainfall trends are significant at the 95% confidence level. On a seasonal scale, a decreasing trend of precipitation was observed in almost most seasons and most of the stations. Except for the summer season, when we see a very slight increase in the majority of the stations. In spring and summer, respectively, 48% and 67% of the stations witness a decrease in precipitation, but these trends are not significant. In the autumn season, 74% of the stations experienced a negative trend of precipitation, and among these stations, Arsanjan, Berghan, Shiraz, Farashband, Kazeroon, Madersaliman and Zarghan witnessed a significant decreasing trend at the 95% confidence level. At the regional level, on annual and seasonal scales, the entire province has seen a decrease in rainfall, especially in winter and annual rainfall. This decrease in rainfall in the northwest of the province is a little weaker than other parts of the province. In the spring season, decreasing changes were observed, but these changes are not significant. In the summer season, a significant increase was seen in rainfall in the southern part of the province. This may be due to the increased activity of the Indian Monsoon. In the autumn season, a decreasing trend in the whole province was experienced, which is not significant. Similarly, the winter season also a decrease in precipitation was observed, with the difference that this trend is significant at the 95% confidence level. In general, all point and regional analyzes show a decrease in precipitation, especially in the annual and winter scales. On the other hand, there are signs of an increase in rainfall in the summer season. Considering that most of the province's annual rainfall occurs in the winter season, the decrease in rainfall in this season can have irreparable negative effects, which of course it has done so far. Therefore, it is expected that more attention must be paid to the planning of the water management and agriculture. In addition, due to the signs of increased rainfall in the spring and summer seasons, there should be sufficient attention to the problem of flooding in these seasons and the resulted damages, and in general, the comprehensive management of water resources in these changing conditions should be seriously considered so that the minimum losses and maximum benefits could be obtained.
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