Abstract:
شیوع ویروس کرونا در اواخر سال 2019 میلادی منجر به مشکلات پیچیده اقتصادی شد و به طور قابل توجهی اقتصاد جهانی را تحت تأثیر خود قرار داد. تحت تاثیر بحران به وجود آمده ناشی از شیوع این ویروس، دولت‌ها برای مقابله با گسترش روزافزون آن، از مداخلات غیر دارویی نظیر فاصله‌گذاری اجتماعی و قرنطینه‌های اجباری استفاده نمودند. با توجه به احتمال ایجاد هزینه‌های اقتصادی این مداخلات در اقتصاد کشورها، در پژوهش حاضر تأثیرات اقتصادی اقدامات غیر دارویی انجام شده طی دوره‌ی شیوع ویروس کووید-19 در مجموعه‌ای از کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و درحالتوسعه، با به کارگیری مدل‌های پانل و تخمین‌زن گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته طی دوره زمانی 2020 تا 2022 میلادی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که شاخص سخت‌گیری دولت (که به عنوان معیاری برای ارزیابی هزینه‌های اقتصادی مداخلات غیر دارویی استفاده می‌شود)، در هر دو گروه کشورهای مورد بررسی، تاثیر منفی و معنی‌دار بر تولید ناخالص داخلی داشته است، به‌عبارتی مداخلات غیر دارویی دولت‌ها برای مهار همه‌گیری کووید-19، منجر به کاهش تولید ناخالص داخلی کشورها شده است. بر اساس نتیجه به‌دست‌آمده در مورد دو گروه کشورهای مورد بررسی، این تاثیر منفی در کشورهای توسعه‌یافته بیشتر از کشورهای درحالتوسعه بوده و این تفاوت در ضریب برآوردی بیان‌گر این است که در کشورهای توسعه‌یافته، شاخص سخت‌گیری تاثیر منفی بزرگتری بر تولید ناخالص داخلی داشته است.
Extended AbstractPurpose: Late in 2019, the corona virus outbreak caused complex economic issues and substantially impacted the global economy. Governments resorted to non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social isolation and mandatory quarantines to combat the ever-increasing spread of this virus. These restrictions, which are referred to as a non-vaccine intervention, have been criticized by some economists, and this led to the formation of the topic of the government's actions against the spread of the virus. What effect has it had on the economy and especially macro–variables? In the economic cycle, the imposition of restrictions and quarantine and measures like these have caused a decrease in the supply of labor, a decrease in the activity of enterprises, their production and the gross domestic production. Considering the possibility of the economic costs of these interventions imposed on the economies of countries, the current research attempts to investigate the economic effects of non-pharmacological measures taken during the period of the COVID-19 spread in a number of developed and developing nations.Methodology: This study aims to examine the impact of non-pharmaceutical government interventions on the gross domestic production (GDP) of developing and developed nations during the period of 2020 to 2022. This is done with seasonal data, and, for each country, the panel generalized moments model (Panel GMM) is utilized. Therefore, the following model is estimated for each group of countries: where Gdp represents at constant prices in 2015, represents the degree of trade openness, represents the number of tourists, represents the government stringency index, and represents the number of new COVID cases.Findings and Discussion: The results of the panel GMM estimation indicate that the previous-period GDP had a positive and significant effect on the current-period GDP in both developed and developing countries. The degree of trade openness has a positive and significant effect on the GDP in both developed and developing countries, such that a one-percent increase in the trade openness raises the GDP by 0.026% in developed countries and by 0.634% in developing countries. The results from both categories of the studied countries indicate that the number of tourists entering the country had a positive and statistically significant effect on the GDP. In developed countries, a one-percent increase in the number of incoming tourists results in a 0.107% increase in the GDP, while, in developing countries, it results in a 0.03% increase in the GDP. The government austerity index, which is used to evaluate the economic costs of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, has had a negative and significant impact on the GDP of both developed and developing countries. This indicates that government austerity has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. It is that non-medicinal government interventions to control the epidemic have resulted in a decline in the gross domestic production of countries. The findings indicate that a one-percent increase in the government austerity index decreases the GDP by 0.03 percent in established nations and by 0.001 percent in developing ones. This difference in the estimated coefficient indicates that the austerity index had a greater negative impact on the GDP of developed nations. The variable coefficient for the number of newly infected individuals differs in developed and developing nations. In developed nations, this coefficient is negative and statistically significant. The number obtained for this coefficient in this group of countries indicates that, as predicted, a one-percent increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19 has resulted in a 0.001% decrease in the GDP, whereas, in developing countries, a one-percent increase in the number of new cases of the disease has resulted in a 0.009% increase in the GDP.Conclusion and Policy Implications: Due to the rapid global spread of COVID-19, the government's role in controlling and overcoming this situation has been undeniable and indispensable. Therefore, it is recommended that governments stimulate aggregate demand and increase their expenditure (G) through various monetary and financial channels, such as lowering interest rates, providing packages and support facilities, and reducing taxes. Since effective vaccines were not yet discovered at the beginning of the spread of this virus and, therefore, it was necessary and natural for governments to adopt preventative austerity measures, it is suggested that, in such critical times, governments could be warned to increase information regarding the economic cost and negative effects of non-pharmaceutical measures on the country. The results of this research provide policymakers with the possibility of future epidemics of comparable or even greater magnitude than COVID-19. This index measures the economic costs incurred by the government during these times. It suggests that, by understanding and analyzing such costs in similar circumstances, organizations can modify their strategies or develop support mechanisms to reduce the cost and external effects of such actions.
Machine summary:
نتايج حاصل از اين پژوهش نشان ميدهدکه شاخص سخت گيريدولت (که به عنوان معياري براي ارزيابي هزينه هاياقتصاديمداخلات غير دارويي استفاده ميشود)،در هردو گروه کشورهايمورد بررسي،تاثير منفيو معنيداربر توليدناخالص داخلي داشته است ،به عبارتي مداخلات غير دارويي دولت ها براي مهار همه گيريکوويد-١٩،منجر به کاهش توليد ناخالص داخلي کشورها شده است .
بر اساس نتايج به دست آمده از مطالعه گروس و همکاران (٢٠٢١)، سياست هاي سخت گيرانه تر اثرات بيشتري بر فعاليت هاي اقتصادي با تأخير زماني خاصي دارد و افزايش يک درصدي در اقدامات دولت هاي اروپايي در مواجهه با گسترش کوويد-١٩ منجر به کاهش ٣ درصدي در توليد ناخالص اين کشورها شده است .
٥- روش شناسي تحقيق در پژوهش حاضر به منظور بررسي تأثير مداخلات غير دارويي دولت ها از طريق معيارهاي مهار کوويد-١٩ بر توليد ناخالص داخلي (GDP) در کشورهاي درحال توسعه و کشورهاي توسعه يافته ، الگوي زير با استفاده از داده هاي فصلي طي دوره زماني ٢٠٢٠ ميلادي تا ٢٠٢٢ ميلادي (دوره ي همه گيري ويروس کوويد-١٩)، براي هر گروه از کشورها، به طور جداگانه ، با استفاده از 1 1.
نتايج برآورد مدل در هر دو گروه کشورهاي توسعه يافته و درحال توسعه نشان داد که تأثير مداخلات غير دارويي دولت ها که از طريق شاخص سخت گيري ارزيابي شده ؛ بر توليد ناخالص داخلي کشورها منفي و معنيدار است .
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