Abstract:
تحولات چند دهۀ گذشته در افغانستان اثرات گوناگون و گسترده‌ای بر امنیت جمهوری اسلامی داشته است. اما قدرت‌گرفتن مجدد طالبان با گرایش‌های ضدشیعی و ضدایرانی، علاوه بر خطرات گذشته، خطرات امنیتی را نیز برای ایران به همراه خواهد داشت. روش در این پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی و هدف اصلی آن بررسی تأثیرات ظهور طالبان جدید در افغانستان بر امنیت ملی ایران است. چارچوب نظری این پژوهش، نظریۀ مجموعۀ امنیت منطقه‌ای است. به‌‌دنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که قدرت‌گرفتن مجدد طالبان چه تأثیری بر امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران دارد؟ به‌نظر می‌رسد ایران با تقویت روابط سیاسی و کمک‌های اقتصادی می‌تواند تهدیدها را به فرصت تبدیل کند. یافته‌های پژوهشی نشان داده است که نبود انسجام داخلی در افغانستان و ناتوانی طالبان در اعمال حاکمیت بر کل کشور و جذب‌نشدن گروه‌های مختلف اجتماعی و سیاسی و فرایند دولت‌سازی و ملت‌سازی یکی دیگر از مشکلات ظهور نوطالبانیسم در افغانستان است که دامنۀ ناامنی حاصل از آن، امنیت ایران را تحت تأثیر خود قرار خواهد داد. با توجه به ماهیت تمامیت‌خواهی طالبان، اگر این گروه نخواهد قدرت را با اقوام دیگر تقسیم کند، برای افغانستان و همسایگانش از جمله ایران چالش خواهد بود. در نتیجه، جمهوری اسلامی باید اقداماتی انجام دهد که تهدیدها را به فرصت‌ها و ضعف‌ها را به قوت‌ها تبدیل کند.
The security structures for any country are considered as basic priorities for the survival of that country and the efforts of the governments are to create, manage and properly maintain these structures. The important elements of this structure are internal and external, and sometimes attention to the inside causes neglect of external threats. Considering that the origin of many threats is foreign, therefore, the emergence of neo-Talibanism in Afghanistan is also considered a foreign threat. The security structures for any country are the basic priorities for the survival of that country, and the government's effort is to create, manage and maintain these structures in a proper way. The important elements of this structure are internal and external, and sometimes attention to the inside causes neglect of external threats. Considering that the root of many threats is foreign, the emergence of neo-Talibanism in Afghanistan is also considered a foreign threat. Historical friendships and hatreds, such as specific issues that cause conflict and cooperation, play a role in the formation of the comprehensive set of fears, threats and friendships that define a regional security group. Various variables such as history, culture, religion and geography affect the patterns of friendship and enmity (Buzan and Waever, 2009: 61). Due to its proximity to Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic of Iran is affected by internal developments and the actions and reactions of regional and international actors related to it. Considering the situation of Afghanistan in the last few decades and turning it into a bankrupt, weak or transitional country in the international arena, the negative effects of the developments will definitely be more. Political instability, foreign interventions, including the occupation of this country in the late 1980s, long internal wars, political differences caused by nationalism, power-seeking by factions and commanders, the emergence of the Taliban, and the intervention of foreign countries under the pretext of preventive war and carrying out neoliberal policies in this country, including The three-decade developments of this neighboring country have spread to Iran as a neighboring country. Although the focus of Iran's foreign policy in the last three centuries has been on its western borders, but practically this country has suffered significant injuries from its eastern borders; In such a way that after the division of the subcontinent into three independent countries in 1947 and the occurrence of border disputes between India and Pakistan on the one hand and Pakistan and Afghanistan on the other hand, as well as the communist coup in Afghanistan in 1979 and the occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviet forces, civil wars, the emergence of the Taliban , the attack of western forces on Afghanistan and the events after that, Iran has always faced security problems in its eastern borders. The dissolution of order after the Bonn Agreement and the triumphant return of the Taliban to Kabul indicate a return to the previous situation when the Taliban were in power. Even worse for Iran, the Taliban are now a more organized, well-equipped, and much stronger group than they were in 2001, and the Iranian-backed political and military groups that fought against the Taliban in the 1990s have now almost disappeared from the Afghan political scene (Tookhy, 2022: 2), but in the last year and a half, the world has watched new developments and events in Afghanistan. Although the root of the events in Afghanistan does not end with just one reason, the country was again in the news when Donald Trump started new negotiations with the Taliban in 2018 and finally reached an agreement on February 29, 2020 in Doha, Qatar. With the commitment of the United States to the gradual withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan and the commitment of the Taliban to prevent the activities of Al-Qaeda in the areas under their control, the developments accelerated. The Taliban, who hoped for Donald Trump's re-election, followed the news of the American elections because Washington would probably fulfill its commitments to withdraw from Afghanistan; But with the victory of Joe Biden and the beginning of his presidency, the events went more and more in favor of the Taliban. Finally, following the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban gradually took over different parts of the country, which can lead to changes in the regional and international order in the future. In this research, we are looking for an answer to the question, what effect does the re-establishment of the Taliban have on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The method in this article is descriptive-analytical and library and internet resources were used to collect data. The dissolution of order after the Bonn Agreement and the triumphant return of the Taliban to Kabul indicate a return to the previous situation when the Taliban were in power. Even worse for Iran, the Taliban are now a more organized, well-equipped and much stronger group than they were in 2001, and the Iranian-backed political-military groups that fought the Taliban in the 1990s have now all but disappeared from the Afghan political scene. The lack of indicators of good governance in Afghanistan has caused that any change in this country, due to a series of commonalities and geographical proximity to neighboring countries, will have a great impact on them and even the region. Developments in Afghanistan over the past few decades, including issues of identity, drugs, foreign interventions, Helmand water resources, etc., have had a wide and wide impact on the security of the region and the Islamic Republic. But the re-emergence of the Taliban with anti-Shiite and anti-Iranian tendencies will pose security risks for Iran. Nevertheless, Iran's goal is to establish stability and security on the country's borders. The main purpose of this article is to examine the effects of the emergence of a new Taliban in Afghanistan on Iran's national security. The theoretical framework of this research is the theory of regional security complex. Research findings show that considering the nature of the Taliban's totalitarianism, as well as the influence of other countries on it, if this group does not want to share power with other ethnic groups, this will be a challenge for Afghanistan and its neighbors, including Iran. As a result, the Islamic Republic, while accepting international norms and trying to establish order in Afghanistan, cannot wait until its desired model is established in this neighboring country, but it is necessary to take measures to turn threats into opportunities and weaknesses into points. By consolidating its relations with the Taliban, Iran can greatly reduce the ethnic and religious tensions in the eastern region and strengthen the idea of religious approximation and reduce the conspiracy and abuse of foreign agents and foreign services to use the capacities of the Baloch people and Sunnis of the east. Economically, the presence of the Taliban provides an opportunity for Iran to play a stronger role in the Afghan economy due to its past relations with the Taliban. The most important of this action in the reconstruction of war-torn Afghanistan and deprived of basic economic needs is aimed at increasing the export of goods, especially in the field of construction goods and also road construction, which Iran has good experience in these fields. In addition, the economic boom in this country has led to the return of Afghan immigrants and refugees and will lead to a significant reduction of social damage in Iran.
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