تغییرات اقلیمی و کشاورزی در شهرستان نجف‌آباد: ارزیابی تأثیرات و استراتژی‌های سازگاری Journal Article

بخش کشاورزی به دلیل تعاملات گسترده‌ای که با محیط دارد، بیشترین تأثیر را از تغییرات اقلیمی می‌پذیرد و جوامع روستایی وابسته به فعالیت کشاورزی را با خطرات جدی تهدید می‌کند. هدف پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی بر کشاورزی و انتخاب راهبردهای سازگاری در شهرستان نجف‌آباد است. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش از نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی است و داده‌ها به روش پیمایشی (پرسشنامه) تهیه شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر کشاورزان شهرستان نجف‌آباد هستند. حجم نمونه 300 نفر کشاورز است که از طریق فرمول کوکران و با روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده انتخاب شدند. ابزار اصلی پژوهش، پرسش‌نامه بوده که روایی آن توسط اساتید و صاحب‌نظران تأیید و پایایی آن با آلفای کرونباخ (760/0) محاسبه شد. تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات گردآوری شده با روش‌های آماری و نرم‌افزار SPSS انجام شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که کشاورزان نسبت به افزایش خشکسالی‌ها و کاهش بارش و گرمتر شدن هوا آگاهی دارند. 51 درصد کشاورزان تنوع محصول را به عنوان یکی از راهبرد‌های سازگاری ترجیح می‌دهند. تقریبا 53 درصد کشاورزان معتقدند استفاده از کودها شیمیایی و سموم دفع آفات باعث افزایش ظرفیت سازگاری در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی می‌شود. 66 درصد کشاورزان سیستم‌های آبیاری پیشرفته را برای مقابله با تغییرات اقلیمی انتخاب کرده‌اند. نتایج رگرسیون لجستیک نشان داد متغیرهای جنسیت، آگاهی از تغییرات اقلیمی، اطلاعات دریافت شده از دفاتر خدمات ترویجی و سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی نقش مهم و تعیین کننده در تولید محصولات کشاورزی دارند. سه مدل رگرسیونی (تولیدات کشاورزی، بیکاری و کمبود مواد غذایی) تدوین شد که همگی معنی‌دار بودند

In the recent decades, climate change is one of the most important and complex environmental challenges of the current and future centuries; so that the dangerous effects of these changes on human life will cover almost all aspects of their lives. Due to extensive interaction with the environment, the agriculture is the most affected by climate change and as a result, while changing the condition of production, it causes welfare changes at the level of the society. In order to the direct reliance of agriculture on natural resources, the communities that provide their livelihood and income from this sector are highly vulnerable due to the influence of climate change(Osborne and Wheeler, 2013; Ray et al, 2015; Matiu et al, 2017). Climate change especially drought can deduce fertility, yield and increase production costs as well as lead to a decrease in income for farmers and aggravation of rural poverty (Lobell, 2015; Schauberger et al, 2017). Therefore, considering the high level of vulnerability of farmers and the increasing trend of climate change, societies need to adapt and deal with these changes. In recent years, due to the increase in population, expansion of urbanization, environmental instability, excessive extraction of underground water and drought; there are many problems in the agricultural sub sector, especially in the field of agriculture. The production of crops and gardens has created. Considering the obvious effects that climate change has had on the agriculture in the case study in recent years; it is very important to understand and evaluate the effect of climate change on the production of agriculture product and to know the necessary strategies to adapt to these changes. Therefore, the current research seeks to answer these questions: what is the attitude of farmers towards climate change? How to evaluate the effects of climate change on the production of agricultural products? What are the most important strategies to reduce the effects of climate change on agricultural products?Research MethodThe research method in this study is descriptive- analytical and the data was prepared by field work. Cronbach’s Alpha was used to validate the data and the value of the coefficient was 0/760. To determine the size of the statistical sample, Cronbach’s formula was used and 340 farmers were selected as the statistical population, but due to some of the questionnaires being distorted 300 people have been selected as the population of this research. Najafabad is located in the west of Esfahan province which occupies %2/2 of the total area of the province with an area of 2383 square kilometers. In this region, nearly %92 of the city’s population lives in cities and the rest in villages.ResultsNearly %56/3 of farmers believes that the air temperature is increasing. Most farmers believe that the lack of rainfall has had a negative impact on the production of agricultural products. %74 of farmers has not received any financial support to adapt to climate change. %78/7 of farmers is unable to adapt to climate change. %72 of farmers believes that climate change has actually had very bad effects on the productions of agriculture products. %51 of farmers prefers crop diversity as one of their adaptation strategies. The majority of farmers believe that upgrading irrigation systems can adapt them to climate change. %66 of farmers prefers advanced irrigation systems. The probability of being affected by climate change for farmers who receive knowledge or information is 0/56 less than of farmers who do not receive information and awareness about risks. The probability of being influenced by climate change is 0/96 less for male farmers than for female farmers. The probability of being influenced by farmers who are aware of climate change is 0/45 less than that of farmers who are not aware of climate change.DiscussionClimate changes are likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of disasters such as droughts, floods and storms (Lei et al, 2011) and Najafabad County has witnessed severe drought in recent years. Considering the obvious effects that climate change has had on the agriculture in the case study; it is very important to understand and evaluate the effects of climate change on the production of agricultural products and to know the necessary strategies to adapt to these changes. The results of the research have addressed three basic issues in the form of regression models. The first model of agricultural production showed that through the combination of adaptation strategies, Farmer can adapt to climate change and thus improve the production of agricultural products. The result of the second unemployment model showed that full time farmers can adapt to climate change with the support of information and services and this in turn will reduce the level of unemployment in society. The third food shortage model showed that farmers who have knowledge and information about climate change will not experience food shortages. ConclusionGenerally, the research explains that agriculture in Najafabad has been severely affected by climate change. The occurrences of climate change in mentioned region has had environmental, economic, social and political consequences and has imposed unfortunate outcomes on the entire society and economy of rural communities that rely on agriculture. Adapting to the inevitable effects of climate change is necessary and requires the formulation of a series of adaptation strategies which include: A. Diversity of income outside the farm (agriculture) due to the existence of industries in Najaf Abad county and proximity to the industrial town of Isfahan; B. Change from agriculture to horticulture according to the history of horticulture in the county of Najaf Abad; C. The use of modern irrigation systems and agricultural mechanization; D. Use of greenhouse crops due to high productivity and crop cultivation at any time; E. Cultivation of low water and high yield crops such as barberry cultivation in Hossein Abad village; and F. Product variety.Acknowledgment According to the authors, the article did not have a financial sponsor.