چکیده:
his paper analyzes the design of macroeconomic policies for Iran during the fourth development plan (2005-2009). For this purpose, first we develop and design a macroeconometric model for Iran economy. Then, we use the stochastic optimal control algorithm "OPTCON" until determine optimal fiscal and monetary policies as solutions of optimum control problems with a quadratic objective function and the macroeconometric model as a constraint. The results show that, the optimal values of government current expenditures, government capital expenditures, tax revenues and oil revenues as the set of fiscal policies, are greater than those proposed in fourth development plan where as money stock as monetary policy is less than the proposed one. The comparison between the effects of the proposed and optimal macroeconomic policies on goal variables, show that using the optimal policies, will improve the economic growth rate significantly and led to lower inflation and unemployment rate. Also, these optimal policies decrease the ratio of budget deficit to GDP some deal. Therefore, the determination of optimal macroeconomic policies for fifth development plan and remainder of the Iran’s twenty years of development prospect bill is suggested.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"Appendix: List of variables State (or endogenous) variables: AGWN Average gross wage rate per employee, nominal AGWR Average gross wage rate per employee, real CAPR Capital stock, real CGR Government consumption, real CPI Consumer price index CPR Private consumption expenditures, real DEF Budget deficit, nominal DEF% Budget deficit as percentage of nominal GDP DEMAND Total final demand, real EMP Employment; 1,000 persons ERN Exchange rate, nominal ERR Exchange rate, real EXPR Total export, real GCER Government current expenditure, real GDPN Gross domestic product, nominal GDPR Gross domestic product, real GDPDEF GDP deflator GDPPOT Potential GDP, real GMER Government capital expenditure, real GRCPI Annual growth rate of CPI ( Inflation rate) GRGDPR Annual growth rate of real GDP IMPR Total imports, real INVGR Government investment, real INVPR Private investment, real INVR Total investment, real LTIRN Long-term interest rate, nominal LTIRR Long-term interest rate, real NOILEXPR Non-oil export, real M3R Money stock M3, real PRICERATIO Ratio Iran CPI to USA CPI PROD Labor productivity TAXRR Government tax revenue, real UN Number of unemployed persons UR Unemployment rate, % of the labor force UTIL Capacity utilization rate YDR Personal disposable income, real Non-control exogenous variables: CPIUSA USA CPI Consumer price index DEPR Depreciation of fixed capital, real IMPDEF Import price level (import deflator) LFORCE Labor force; 1,000 persons OILEXPR Oil exports, real OTHERRN Government non-tax revenue, nominal SEDIR Sum of inventory change and statistic errors TIME Linear time trend Control exogenous variable: GCEN Government currency expenditure, nominal GMEN Government capital expenditure, nominal TAXRN Government tax revenue, nominal OILRN Government oil revenue, nominal M3N Money stock M3, nominal References: 1- Arabmazar, A."